This is India Defence Forum’s (IDF’S) Second Analysis of Covid-19 on Intelligence Lines.

Accidents and Lapses of  Intelligence(Sita crossed the Lakshman Rekha) to  ward off dangers, have led to disasters like the plague and even Pearl Harbour. Only  then, did  USA join War II to defeat Japan.

 USA’s CIA and Echelon UK’s and UK’s GCHQ  could not gauge India’s Shakti Atom Bomb tests in 1998. BARC trained K Santanam in DRDO(ex RAW) with help from those setting up DIPAC, executed the mission by night  cloud cover with Army Engineer’s help.  Even Chiefs and Deputy PM may not have known.  Kargil  incursion surprised Indian intelligence and Army, as did Blue Star before.  History is plastered with Intelligence failures ! The worry of COVID by analysis appears to have led to  Germany’s  Economy Minister to  suicide. COVID-19  is  now about bio-technology and covert Economic Warfare that companies wage ! Nothing new but worldwide. 

China’s students have studied Medical Bio chemistry in the USA’s best Universities. Most returned to China to join Bio Companies, Government Research Laboratories and even Military like our DRDO or USA’s DARPA to carry out dormant research to be able to face a chemical or bio NBCD attack or epidemic in the military as that would be disastrous. Indian Navy taught NBCD that Royal Navy left us procedures and Citadels in ships to fight a Ground Zero fallout of a Nuclear or Chemical  Attack at sea.

Advanced militaries and even DRDO’s  Defence Institute of Bio-Energy Research(DIBER) at Haldwani and Institute of Nuclear Medicine &Allied Sciences (INMAS) must have inputs to comment and advise the Government.  Bio Warfare was banned by UN in 1984……after rules were broken in Vietnam and in Iran-Iraq(1980) war with use of Chlorine gas warfare and recently in the Syrian war as reported by survivor Dr Amini Ballour of Syria on Jaljeera with graphic details, she kept. A movie has been made like John Abraham loves Intelligence plots. He took Underhand Affair, an Intelligence cum Love novel.

In a small way, Navy suffered a jaundice epidemic on a ship on a foreign cruise in the 1960s and many contracted it before patients were Quarantined  and ship could return to Bombay. Diagnosis and testing was poor. Many remained on Sick Leave after. It was a nightmare ! Everyone was scared to touch anyone or anything or eat seeing so much vomiting. Today ships are better equipped and quarantined in Lock Down.

A fighting force cannot be down and has to be prepared. In this case, China tried to hide the pandemic as minimal as they monitor each person with a number with AI and President Xi Jinping went to the 5G Chip Factory in Wuhan to see systems progress is IDF’s reading by joining the dots, and milking the cow(Media) which is what Intelligence is all about. A Chinese Doctor leaked. He is no more.

 China wishes to achieve the China Dream at any cost and sacrifice, using Nationalism like Hitler did. Leaders exploit  nationalism for power. Trump called it make USA ‘Great Again’,  fearing China. CPC fears Social Unrest but having fought COVID and seeing the world’s suffer more,  media is hailing their Great Leader for Life, yet there is worry if China’s CPC  goes down too with the rescission, a call for democracy may erupt.

 USA’s Monsanto, known for Genetically Modified Foods supports several research projects in Chinese institutions on contract to take advantage of the special skills of Chinese scientists, e.g. plant tissue and bio-culture methods, like US Software companies use Indian brains.  Promega gives Chinese scientists access to biotechnology reagents and anti-vaccines and joint venture factories in China for genetic engineering of soybeans, HBV vaccines, and cancer detection kits.

PLA Army has not denied there is a Lab in Wuhan. Patenting system can be crossed, often by playing one company against another and offering preferential market entry. Nations set up  sleeping Companies abroad like James Headley set up one in Mumbai for the 26/11 that Intelligence could not locate. USA enlightened India but he turned out to be a Double Agent,  explained in An Underhand Affair and pardoned by USA.

India imports medical ingredients in billions.  China has built technological expertise to be the leader in the field to make a viruses and test a re-agent or an anti-dote. Scientists love to do weird experiments, and the Atom Bomb was made by Oppenheimer but only after August 1939 when Einstein wrote to U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt and warned the Nazis were working on a new and powerful weapon: an atomic bomb. Fellow physicist Leo Szilard urged Einstein and helped draft the letter, not any Intelligence Agent. It falls in a Scientist’s understanding.


There were NASA photos of COVID (See posted) and  media reports from Dec till mid March. It was initially for all nations an Red event happening in China and not their problem. Intelligence do not study such. Media is adept and faster but mislead too. China’s neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Siberia in Russia and CAR which have  borders to  intermingle and marry and see China TV seems to have taken the warning  and did not allow people who had visited China from end Jan and the Cruise ship episode in Japan woke some up more Nations. Discipline is essential for a Nation and Nations like Vietnam, Japan and Russia have suffered long wars of deprivation to learn that, not India.

At this stage IDF must relate personal events from 11th Feb to 1st March in London and Oxford.

We were baby sitting in Oxford from 11th Feb and neighbours came over for Old Monk IDF  carried to ward off the cold. Old friends came in cars. IDF went across to neighbours, but the Brit couple opposite waived Hello and told us they are in Quarantine back from a cruise. IDF did not take it seriously though the old lady said do not go near them. An Apps from Hong Kong from a relation to meet kids, on 18th Feb said they may not return to meet IDF in Cambridge and asked IDF to read a WHO message. IDF was more interested in the protests in HK. Too old to read WHO.

 IDF kept attending Conferences in Oxford and Sommerville’s India Centre, some on payment for the post wine and eats and Asmolean Museum with grandson which was filled with kids on school break for which we had been called to baby sit. We  bused  to Bupa Cromwell Hospital in London on Sunday 16th Feb to see a patient. No precautions were there in London’s best hospital. IDF  enjoyed Coffee in the café, the staple food abroad.

The world and even IDF thought the virus was a localised problem in Wuhan, like India in Surat, but COVID  spread through the tourists visiting China and Chinese who went all over in the Chinese New Year and Milan has Chinese leather factories. Spain thought there was no land border with Italy. Experts learnt it was more deadly than SARs.

 IDF has weathered flues …….with Anti-Biotic tablets prescribed by one of India’s most ‘kind to poor’ Night Angelic Army Doctor and late husband a Shipmate doctor, who kept the Captain sane. She is known to every poor in and near Defence Colony and Kotla for almost free consultations every evening, with a smile that cures ! She has donated to IMF Museum in memory of her husband. 

By now COVID has affected the entire world and is spreading rapidly in  advanced countries and in USA where systems to take care are collapsing. Kerala Govt had imposed social distancing from first week of March with 9 testing centres now,  compared to nil in the beginning. Test is done on all suspects to save lives.  NRIs from Italy and UAE have brought Covid19 to Kerala and are under strict watch.

India’s meager medical is coping with pleas by PM, but the situation in North India after the lock down on 24th with no pre-planning for the, ‘no wages for migrants and daily workers’ consequences, has become another concurrent challenge.  Time will tell if it COVID-19 leaked or was leaked or once leaked China took advantage by strategic moves of Sun Tzu, but in any case, COVID has been a worldwide Intelligence failure and poor Analysis to join the dots by those who look after Nations. Churchill to his intelligence said always be the first to  give me the bad news  to win the war ! And Truthful advice without fear ! Shan No Varuna.

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