IDF’S NO 3 ANALYSIS ON HOW & WHEN COVID-19 BEGAN & RAGED– WHAT CHINA DID WRONG & THEN VERY RIGHT THE CHINESE WAY–THE SITUATION IN INDIA TODAY —-WHEN WILL COVID PEAK & IN 4TH ANALYSIS—IDF WILL PREDICT HOW AND WHEN IT MAY END & REFORMS NEEDED

This is www.indiadefenceforum 3^rd Analysis on COVID-19.

The two first posts analysed how COVID began and became what will be one of the world’s biggest Intelligence lapses, and an accident that went awry, because of secrecy by China and mismanagement by WHO. It led to a pandemic that Intelligence Agencies neglected despite NSA’S REGULAR COVID charts depicted Wuhan as RED in January and LESS RED  in February. IDF 2^ND Analysis has pictures. WION carried that. Feedback of IDF analysis is encouraging. IDF will try limit to around 1200 words modern Indian’s reading limit.

The total Covid-19 cases in India are over 2200 with more being detected. Two nurses, one infected by a patient and a doctor at Safdarjung just returned from Dubai and cases from Dharavi and Jamat meet rising. India’s cases are imported. None from Wuhan, flown in by Air India. PM’s early bold lockdown when cases in India were less will help the peak to come early. More cases will emerge though Indians immunity is high for many reasons. Yet many may begin carrying it if they do not adhere to  social distancing, drinking hot water and gargling. Testing has to be more vigourous for isolating cases. Foreign tourists get sick if they drink local water and eat fresh salads. Indians systems work wonders in Western countries —-IDF Analysis.

HOW AND WHEN COVID-19 BEGAN & RAGED

COVID began from Wuhan’s animal market or less likely leaked from a laboratory in China in end 2019 hence is not likely a Bio-Warfare; Bio agents are made for limited area use and Anti-Dote kept ready for own protection. The virus increased in Wuhan, and the Doctor who squealed it was a very serious new contagious Flu, was silenced the Chinese way.

Chinese schools closed in January for Chinese New Year well before Year 25^th January till 8^th February’s Lantern Festival.  Companies closed for weeks, with planning of skeleton staff. In 2018 Chinese took Indians working in Chinese mobile companies to China for holiday, training and working. CPC and Xi were worried but never foresaw the virility or spread. No leader of China dare ruin a Chinese New Year or close Animal markets. Chinese TV showed millions of Chinese many infected, traveling from Wuhan and China and from the world to celebrate their Deepavali with Hungbao gifts(汉堡). China got infected and infected the world- Chinese CPC got to know, Hubei was closed. COVID spread world over. In February  Jamat held a huge gathering in Malaysia and in Delhi later, well known for its peak Muslim cases, still being  traced as we have no AI system like China, and local firewalls.  Many cheap Interknitted home Chinese cameras are connected.

WHAT CHINA DID RIGHT AND WHAT CHINA DID WRONG

Chinese Doctors went to work with with 100% testing & researching COVID which begins with fever, cough, nose running, the throat and lungs infect like pneumonia…other organs not effected …..elderly have weak lungs. Their autopsies showed lungs full, up to throat needing ventilators. Testing was on war footing with AI tracking (IDF has explained earlier) and infected cases were picked up dragged and put in Isolation. Hospitals were built. Medical staff some Indians too and military flew in to HUBEI, war like !

IDF saw a Jugad testing system on China TV that took temperature devised Xray for throat & lungs for AI Computers to report CLEAR DOUBTFUL INFECTED…to Doctors and,  the party wide. IDF asked NDTV Anit Mukherjee about it on Q&A. She was convinced but the Doctor rubbished it ! The world partied (SEE last IDF posting of Oxford). CPC saw seriousness for the world but did not want Xi’s image sullied. He is the first over ambitious Princeling Nationalist Chinese leader who wants to be popular too- for Life-BRI ! Others were shrewder, able and authoritarian for 10 years and faded away.  COVID peaked and reduced, hot spots were identified and business is getting back and Guns are out for Second Wave. When Vaccine is out every Chinese will be injected !!

SITUATION IN INDIA AND WHEN IT WILL PEAK AND WHAT WE CAN DO

India is lucky, it’s not serious yet by US,  Europe and Chinese standards, but media is not helping. PM Modi is India’s best bet as a great strategist. PM Locked India Down, but PMO(Bureaucracy)is dictating tactics too and Bacchi Kakraria calls it Caro Namaha’s Demonititis and Gstitis in TOI. Hot spots can be mapped which Harsh Vardhan is trying. If States get leeway, some Biz can start in Non Hot spots. Ships and planes can call non hot ports and airports for logistics. By end April or earlier COVID can be made to peak with DISCIPLINE. India must get then ready for Wave 2.The world will come back on an even keel…..so await IDF Analysis 4 on Economics too ! 2.5% Growth by Fitch–No? If India reforms.

LESSONS & GOOD EFFECTS OF COVID 19

It is clear, Bureaucracy has been unable to meet challenges forcing PM to take on work 24X7X365 with Yoga and religion for faith.  Lt Gen PG Kamath analyzes PM Modi’s, ‘Ek Bharath Shreshta Bharath’ program, lamenting PM was very dissatisfied with the progress, and gave a piece of his mind to the top bureaucrats, they had spoiled his first five-year tenure and he would not allow them to spoil his second term. IDF supports PM and offers medicines as small fry .

India needs a swifter, leaner digitally able Bureaucracy to meet modern challenges, run projects and even warlike situations as in escapable. And our military too ! Delegation too.

 NDU hangs, and a TRI SERVICE WAR GAMING CENTRE was recommended as First Need for CDS’s Jointness in Navy Year Book-2020 by IDF, also to be a Virtual War Room with massive data where Bureaucracy and Military, Scientists and Business could meet to fight disasters & emergencies which will help in a skirmish or war too ! Today they do it in PMO as War Room with NSA. Knowledge is not alone with the Government and some of our Ministers and Chief Ministers are out of depth, but they have electoral toppling power and what that needs !

Today there is need for the wider modern Internet-ed Government for its advantages and disadvantages and Logistics and Intelligence which has been a political tool as IPS Police mans it ! Legacy of the British not their fault ! IDF was part.

Finally COVID 19 has done what Gold Medalist Col Rathore promised, but could not do. He apologised through a Joint Secretary to IDF with papers he presented to Cabinet as I&B minister. He had promised at USI –Private Radio Commentators will be allowed to do Sports Commentary on Private Radio ……..CURRENTLY NEWS SPORTS & CURRENT AFFAIRS ARE BANNED ON PRIVATE RADIO(not TV as it is  not possible) but SUDDENLY COVID warnings and some form of news are allowed on Private Radio……..AIR HAS WASTED RADIO’S POWERFUL MEDIUM ON MUSIC. Only our sharp PM used the power of Radio (heard on the move too), weekly for Man He Baat….Churchill used it for Fireside Chats ….no face is seen no need to dress….speak from the heart ! That is strategy …..Now PM Sir, please allow Current Affairs and Sports on Private Radio and any PMO reading PLEASE try. India can come out victor ! Shan Na Varuna. Inputs Prasun Sengupta.