-If Severely Threatened Revisionist China May Retaliate & Disrupt Selective Internet & Under Water Cables & Satellites Called ‘Cyber War’—That Means Mayhem ! China Has A Built A Firewall To Insulate Itself !

This is IDF’s 10th Covid-19 military analysis. It postulates three likely scenarios as Carona which means a ‘ring around the moon’, is still raging on.

The first is, over time Carona will be brought under control and resurface as a dangerous but combatable Flu, and life and economies may gradually bounce back—–as Israel markets the vaccine under final trials. China will gain as USA will lose economically. In the end game a two power world, like Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt charted, may make G20 less relevant to G2 is IDF’s scenario as a US Admiral had suggested. Nations will have to look inward as USA stops immigration. In any eventuality the militaries will have changed with a Revolution in Military Affairs(RMA).

USA’s use of nuclear bombs on Japan made kinetic large wars between Nuclear Powers recede, and a new virtual cold war is on between USA suffering, and secretly China plotting. India too changed with the bomb in 1998 ! India was sanctioned, looked to self help, and has become a military power but fiddly Pakistan kept up terrorism to bleed India’s forces. A change in Leadership that military controls, there also ? RMA in Middle East humiliated USA’s powerful military as China watched.

IDF credits Prasun Sengupta for inputs on what P4 level means at Wuhan Institute of Virology’s laboratory equipped to handle dangerous viruses. Its head Yuan Zhiming defends China, “There’s no way this virus came from us, I know it’s impossible.” Han Xia, Yi Huang, Haixia Ma, Bobo Liu, Weiwei Xie, Donglin Song, Zhiming Yuan explain Bio-safety at Level 4 Laboratory with User Training Programmes, but IDF adds accidents will happen. Covid-19 is not a bio-weapon but is the face of future bio-warfare.

IDF thanks US Navy League for virtual membership and to hear the crisp views of Adm James Foggo III Cdr Allied Joint Forces Europe/Africa, Radm Marcus Hitchcock Director of Strategy & US Space Command & Radm David Hahn Chief of Naval Research over two Virtual conferences, anchored by Francis Rose with candid questions on the effect of Covid on militaries.

Adm Foggo’s worry is networks may get clogged and virtual working needs training and alternate channels and bandwidth, which Africa and smaller NATO militaries lack. US Navy worries about mass contagion in ships like aircraft carriers via the Air Conditioning, two already back in port. Taiwanese Navy ships that went to visit Palau, the only Nation that recognizes Taiwan returned to Port with many cases.

Indian Navy’s operational ships are at sea supported by helicopters and tankers. CNS Admiral Karambir Singh reports fully operational, presume weapons fully loaded. Army has put operational soldiers in ‘Red Zone’, as COAS Gen Naravane on a visit to Kashmir yet to settle into normalcy, lamented that while nations were fighting Carona, Pakistan has upped terror attacks and firing along the line of control, that Pakistan treats as the working boundary. RM held meeting with CDS and Chiefs for reforms and jointness but IDF saw a variety of masks, each self designed a hall mark of India’s powerful Chiefs, that needs Jointness overall beginning with Masks as a uniform. PM Modi has designer masks sets the high !

COVID has changed the roles and functions of the war-fighter, with RMA due to the ‘Power’ struggle for economy, money, and technology(5G) by strategic aspirants like China and Russia, seeking parity with USA, on the top table. With oil prices falling, Russia and USA are suffering. China may gain.

Revisionist China is using COVID’s accidental leak and its cover up, to assert its rise, and ownership of the fortified South China Sea islands as its expanded Maritime Space, and eyes Taiwan for its wealth and technology and EEZ around Itu Aba(Taiping), not denied in the UNCLOS arbitration. This needs a separate legal explanation.

Nations are still importing PPEs and items from China and not ordered any ban. India has changed Automatic FDI rules for China to normal route. China has called it ‘Discriminatory’, and threatened, it is against WTO, but CEO Niti Ayog has tried to pacify China, India has not stopped China and will give clearances in one week !

Militaries will have to turn to domains of space and virtual networks for military GPS applications and weapons. China has been engaging USA in a cyber led cold virtual war. It gathers terabytes of Intelligence and has a ‘Intrusive Chinese Internet Fire Wall’, that democratic judicial systems object to, but will have to re-think ! Chinese have the Great Wall syndrome. IDF has lived with them. Chinese never entertain a stranger in their home, fearing he will know a lot about you…….that is why they told IDF, they have Coffee Shops with food and beer, and great street food in Hawker Stalls the true atmosphere to meet. IDF explained you are cheese, Indians are chalk ! Very different.

At this stage of anger against China, if any counter action is to be taken against it has to be soon, and USA has to be prepared for consequences or time will pass. Normalcy will return is what China wants for its exports and its ambitions. Most EU and developing nations would rest their oars on that. After IDF saw Gateway’s list of Chinese investments of $ 4 billion IDF listed and more done quietly through the Automatic Route India’s ability to take on China have receded but QUAD is on the way.

The SECOND scenario is there will be more cold war raging on Virtual Platforms, Media, Fake News, Social Media and Information Warfare with accusations. The UN will have to take it up as neither USA can take China to ICJ as per the UN’s ICJ Charter(IDF has consulted a world expert). Even not to ICC as act of genocide against humanity by Xi Jinping. That too needs UN Security Council vote and China has Veto power. Only WHO can be starved of funds.

THIRD scenario. China blockades Taiwan and watches for world response.

LAST scenario. The world boycotts imports from China and QUAD comes with changed rules in UNSC changes. USA Japan and some democracies could team up to take on China and disregarding Russia if required. India ? Islamic countries Turkey? Europe may give US tepid support. Maybe not.

This war may not go kinetic, but it will be raged for control of the world. Indeed, the first virtual skirmishes have already taken place with a virus from China and this year, the world has experienced a taste of death.

Vietnam is the coordinator of ASEAN–Japan relations and head of ASEAN. Hanoi has the chance to shape regional politics with Chairmanship, when leaders from in and outside ASEAN come virtually together, but ASEAN needs China. Shan Na Varuna.

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