This is IDF’s OUT OF THE BOX POT POURI snap analysis on the possible repercussions on India of the 12th Jul award by five Judges at the PCA Hague negating China’s South China Sea (SCS) claims on historical grounds. India’s internal challenges are also mounting for the BJP-NDA overtly Hindu government as China is involved in POK (Gilgit &Baltisitan) which is India’s, so China’s activities needs watching, as John Kerry drags India into SCS.
A concerned US Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. John Richardson who has visited India, is visiting long serving, shrewd Naval Chief Adm WU Shengli in Beijing and the submarine base Qingdao and will visit aircraft carrier Liaoning from 17th to 20th July, in the wake of the South China Sea ruling to cool tensions .
China is showing both belligerence and rapprochement to solve the South China Sea imbroglio award it has lost. Rightly India has been monkish, not to welcome the landmark “historical” rights judgment ruling that China cannot claim on South China Sea, as China claims land border on historic lines not the 1914 map, though it may reduce Tamil Nadu’s claims on Kachiteevu in Sri Lanka.
Foreign policy tours have kept BJP-NDA’s top leaders more occupied, while internal challenges have been mounting with Amit Shah handling Governments being dismissed by Governors, interference by centre with Ordinances which have failed causing pique. Even Armed Forces seem unhappy with a partial OROP given after nine months under duress.
In this atmosphere SCS world wide and India’s Kashmir in South Asia are the flavor of diplomacy on test, as Kashmir burns, floods add ravage in areas keeping forces busy and Parliament debates Kashmir’s ten old day curfew, with no easy respite.
Army gallantly rushed on orders from the centre in numbers with soldiers and vehicles and food, as a Fire Fighting and Disaster Agency (FFDA) to escort Amaranth pilgrims back from Srinagar camps in a grim state. Nations saw grateful returnees on TV speak volumes, on the fine Indian Army. Their unquestionable loyalty never to even dream of a coups was marred by Shekhar Gupta of IE with sensationalism aided by a partisan Intelligence input. Indian leaders must have followed the coup in Turkey on TV, aware that the apolitical Indian Armed Forces are there ‘TO DO AND DIE’ for Regimental honour and nation as India’s glue, and obey orders implicitly. This is Government’s shield as a given.
World’s economy, of $ 2 trill earning no interest in the West, Japan and China and India’s too with dead NPAs is looking for exports and investments which will be affected by the SCS tension as Japan has shown belligerency. China has threatened an ADIZ in the region and there is no Air Force in the area that can challenge PLA(AIR and NAVY) as Japan rushed forces to east China Seas. Tensions have cooled since.
This SCS tension comes after BREXIT’s known unknown, as Rumsfeld defined, and the spurt of ISLAMIC killings world over by Jehadi suicide bombers of LET JEM ISIL TALIBAN HAQQUANI NETWORK and AL-SHABAB in Africa and those indoctrinated world over. USA set aflame the Middle East IMPOSING democracy by force, and falsifying WMDs in Iraq to remove Sadaam Hussain. The fire was lit.
USA has no answers save a Trump to ban Muslims, Countries like Syria are in tatters, and Russia under economic sanctions is forced towards China and entered the fray on Assad’s side and may take advantage of the turmoil in Turkey which shot down a Russian SU-24, as Islamist President Erdogan sided with USA for Sunnis against Shia Iran and supported rebels to rid Assad in Syria, Turkey’s secular military and judicial leaders always supported A Kamal Ataturk secular Turkey and attempted a coup, but have failed for the second time. Turkey’s economy will suffer as it refits Pakistan’s aging Augusta submarines, that India watches.
India too is afflicted by a debate on secularism or Hindu India which should worry the military, who have little say in military and nuclear strategies, or attend high level meetings as observers and lean totally on MOD’s two Ministers, one newly appointed cancer Surgeon Dr Bhamare from Dhule taking over from Shri Rao Inderjit Singh that IDF welcomes. India’s capable hard working IB NSA has a big plate in absence of a CDS or a National Intelligence Director to attend to reports and inputs from nine agencies and grade them !
After two years of Intelligence inputs PM has felt the lack of intelligence inputs and lack of co-operation, after two years in office with no NCTC and pleaded for sharing of Intelligence with states. Sharing has to have secure soft ware architecture, with safe guards. Sharing can back lash as one sees Telephone Numbers in CDR being leaked freely for money by Ex Intelligence operatives, and TV religious stations running without licenses, so a Zakir Naik used the system to incite Wahabi Jehadi-ism. Maharashtra Special Branch knew all, and is spilling Naik foibles. Naik has fled to Haj.
Pakistan plans to celebrate BLACK DAY on 18th July, on killing of Robin Hood of Kashmir as Gen Atta Hasnain calls him. It may reverberate in Kashmir and Hurriyat leader Geelani under house arrest addresses UN and nations on Kashmir. Pakistan wants arbitration on the Indus Water Dispute settled by World Bank in 1965 on Kishanganga and Rattle dams. PM Narendra Modi looked pensive and mellow and less combative but as always elegantly dressed on TV, as he addressed the Chief Ministers and the All Party meet on 16/17th July for support on paralyzed Kashmir and GST was in mind too.
THE SCS SITUATION AND REPURCUSSIONS
IDF posted maps of the sea China will lose and also face in the SCS award on this site. Chinese do not like to lose face and may go down fighting. If by chance the matter goes to the UN Security Council (UNSC) via the Taiwanese route and military claim on Taiping which Taiwan military maintains with troops, then the UN ITLOS award can become invalid as PCA have no authority to adjudicate on military matters as per UNCLOS Art 298. A Taiwanese naval ship is reported in the area and China’s Coast Guard patrols constantly with a hospital ship, and has sent its Navy as US Navy too sails in. Richardson and WU may establish CBMs.
India stands by the verdict saying it supports “freedom of navigation (FON)” which Chinese Ministry of Defence spokesman said two weeks ago to India is assured by rules when asked if China would impede Indian Naval ships in the SCS which sees $ 3 trill trade pass most, for China and some for India The statement released by Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is, “India supports freedom of navigation and over flight and unimpeded commerce, based on principles of international law as reflected notably in UNCLOS”. It could have welcomed the award as many nations have done.
Adm Wu Shengli has been the Chief of the PLA(Navy) for over a decade for China’s maritime rise and now a member of the CMC the most powerful security policy body in China headed by President XI Jinping. Adm WU visited India during CNS Adm Sureesh Mehta tenure as his guest and asked details about Indian Navy’s strategy to combat Piracy in the Horn of Africa, but never revealed China’s special forces were being trained and warships joined the anti piracy patrol since with larger forces and even sent submarines under anti piracy cover!
Might is right in International law and the powers with might are USA and China. India too thinks it’s a power but IDF modestly states it has a long way to go and its economy should never be measured in PPP terms to be fooled by the world’s Western economists. IDF admits the only nation today that has potential to grow is India but even RBI Governor hints only reforms and not RSS Hindutva ideology or run after growth rate will help as inflation breathes.
Richardson visit must be watched as the official statement will be “to improve mutual understanding and encourage professional interaction between the two navies”, What it did not say that Taiwan has a claim to the Taiping island on which China was banking. Discussion topics will include the ongoing one month long Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises where INS Sayhadri is taking part with a large PLA (N) force and discuss future opportunities for the two navies to operate together with PLA (NAVY) and 16 navies to promote Peace and Tranquility that PM Rao sowed with China for India, and in all this there are lessons for Indian diplomacy to involve military brass and may be fill the DEPUTY NSA post falling vacant with a military head. PLA (N) respects India’s Shan no Varuna Navy and maritime domain is vital for India in Indo-Pacific !