This is www.indiadefenceforum.com 4th COVID-19 Analysis. The world has changed. “Naee daur ke naee Batten !”
Earlier posts analysed how COVID became a terrible Intelligence Analysis(IA) lapse, not taking seriously WHO releases from January, as Wuhan’s problem, when China began acting ! Situation also went awry, because of secrecy by China’s CCP and mishandling by cash rich WHO.
China battled COVID secretly and harshly, possibly sharing with Russia’s medical fraternity. It led to a pandemic. Russia battened down, and Lord Ram’s grace many believe, has seen India not hit so badly (3700 cases detected 75 deaths) so far. Indians have high immunity with the water drunk, re-cycled street food eaten with no FDA and earlier generations have battle illnesses. The ringing of bells and lighting Divas, is invigorating morale boosters for Hindus . Rahulji may disagree.
Captain like PM Modi is navigating India out of the eye of the storm. He could do with experienced Navigators of any ilk, not RSS alone. Government sacked some economy Navigators. Police and Intelligence and states have shown ability to track the fleeing 2000 Talbigi guys that had the bug, and spread it in the Nizamudin Dargah. That is Indian acumen, what China does with AI. But other times we do not do so ! IDF knows why, but not very sure. When you wear any uniform it should be ‘duty first’, politics later.
Hindi saying is, This Too Shall Pass, but IDF takes on what next. Borrowing George Orwell’s word, many may become, ‘Un-persons and many businesses may become un-businesses and the Geo-Strategic equations between China, USA, Russia, Germany, European Union, Japan and India may change.” EAM Jaishankar is India’s trouble shooter and Indian Ocean Nations are our wealth —-help them to the hilt, whatever it means. Sadly Navy is under funded with lessening platforms. Defence budget is lowest and committed. It’s a whammy uniformed have to think about. Golf Courses are shut ! This is the time think of reforms and Jointness seriously, not ruminate as IDF does after every bad shot ! BHOOL JAO PURANEE BATE and DPP. As IDF suggested lease platforms, and lease to buy and use civil facilities for training and maintenance as they will need sustenance and they are good. Print notes forget Deficit for a bit..Maynard Keynes.
Shoots of the above strategic changes are showing. Russia under US sanctions sent a shipment of supplies in big cardboard boxes to USA in an Antonov cargo plane printed with the words “From Russia With Love.” Russia’s Ambassador in DC said, he hoped the U.S. government would help Russia in the future, — “without any politicization.” Iran wants sanctions lifted and Trump is sure to exit Afghanistan and if Iran promises to be good, India can gain. Oil prices are low but Force Majoire on old contracts are being applied. FM must can breath for a bit.
China sent supplies and medical staff all over Europe and Trump thanked PM Modi for his offer to send medical supplies. NSA and PMO must be thinking with India’s low numbers, India can afford to please USA. Government can open Cold Spots suggested for logistics and economy.
The COVID-beast from Wuhan has infected well over a million people and killed over 75,000, including 1,550 current military cases in USA. Skipper Capt Croozier of the 140,000 ton carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt with 125 fighter planes like F-18S & C-35s, one third of our Air Force on three football fields and 5000 men lost his cool, bypassed Command, and deservedly got sacked. US Navy is not Indian Congress, like run…..There is chain of Command, and you do not go crying to media. Our Armed Forces know that as our ETHOS which makes our men sacrifice. Kargil showed it, but next war must be better fought, caring for lives ! Read PDF of WARRING NAVIES in Lock Down attached to this post. IDF’s largesse is your read.
India must not be complacent and accept that every nation will look at its own economic self-interest and ambitions. Only China seems to be ticking back to normalcy as USA knows very tough times are coming, and India is now strategically hooked in with USA, but its economy is linked to China too for imports of essential supplies and China is silently heavily invested in India. Both need India. Lot depends on how Pakistan fares.
The Pandemic has come at a terrible time for India when three economic Whammies and two CAA and NPR unrests have hit India’s economy badly and equilibrium broken, respectively. First whammy Demonetititis –India was getting out of that Tsunami cash crash, and Digital Tsunami with poor education and returning to some cash economy for the poor, when the self created GSTitis storm blew into businesses’ faces. The GST winds are still blowing. Some businesses retreated abroad. USA started to get tough and extra Indians there began returning. OCI’ s took advantage. There was mis-management of the Economy as more thrust was given for gaining political power in states by those in power.
Government also spent crores and energies, searching for culprits to fill coffers, and settle political enmities. CBI and ED and Income Tax and Courts got overworked and missions were busy sending letters Rogatory and fighting expensive Extradition cases of Malyas and Modis etc. CBI and ED would investigate and question in the morning and make it a spectacle by evening on TV. Never allowed in an Investigation in services! The second whammy came when Government announced India will go the full ‘battery way’ for vehicles unaware of the cost, no battery charging facilities were yet set up and battery production of Lithium batteries was unavailable. India wanted to join the first world without joining the second for its million poor. Vehicle industry went into a spin and started thinking and spending when BS-6 from 1st April, 2020 confused them. Many reduced production of models and began losing money.
Then came two whammys ……the spending to get Kashmir in to India’s grip where no figures are available as troops etc can never be counted. Kashmir was already milking centre and now the worry is unemployment. And no moneys. Tourism has died. The second whammy was CAA and NPR which became a political circus and grist for the media.
It’s still too early to say how well Beijing will weather the storm that the West may unleash. Xi’s post and agenda remains on course, but it needs watching how China fares out. The beast awaits an anti-dote but the only way up for India is to open for FDI and manufacturing with reforms, and postpone Swadeshi for a bit. Shan Na Varuna.
Attached WARRING NAVIES PDF of wars India has fought and AN UNDERHAND AFFAIR –TRAVAILS OF A DALIT GIRL PDF for Lock Down reading pleasure which may get extended in Hot Spots and back to politics.