REMAINS NO 1 IMPORTER DEPITE ‘MAKE IN INDIA’BUT DEFEXPO-18 & THE SIDM-FRENCH GIGAS MEET & CII -SIDM-B2Bs PROMISE MUCH AS BJP RUSHES A DPC FOR SECURITY UNDER THE DEFACTO CDS –INDIA’s NSA

Ranjit B Rai

On 15th  August, 2014 PM Modi electrified the nation in his long maiden speech from Red Fort  and heralded   a “ Make in India for Defence,  and  Exports”,  and  set the cat among the Pakistani pigeons (and  Chinese)  by demanding Indian Kashmir  back and supported Baluchistan’s  Independence …Gwadar in CPEC.  A new dawn promising a  corruption free Government  was articulated by an orator ‘Par Excellence’ and  BJP took office in April 2014. A   Roman gladiator type stylishly  Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over. 

 PM Modi looks older in 2018. The Line of Control and working boundary  that Pakistan disputes in J & K,   is more active and India’s fine  Army is deeply mired  in the difficult task protecting India’s people, India’s interests  and integrity while a PDP-BJP dissonance rages there.  India is richer, stronger in the external arena but internal security, policing, bickering between states and Naxalites and  an impatient youth population are unable to fulfill their  aspirations. Is the cup of India half full or half empty ?    If you look at 4 years  as a majoritarian Hindu,  the cup is more than half full with Hindu power and Ram Mandir too seems nearer !   Continue reading

BREAKING NEWS FOR INDIA’S SECURITY –THE FIRST SIGNS OF AIR SEA BATTLE STRATEGY FOR INDIA DISCUSSED IN SINGAPORE IN THE 1990s HAS BARED ITS TEETH NOW — IAF SU -30MKI’s FLEW TO MALACCA STRAITS WITH DUMMY BRAHMOS IN GAGAN SHAKTI WITH IL-78s REFUELING & NAVAL SUPPORT IN IOR – BZs !

Ranjit B Rai

The back ground to this IDF ANALYSIS is the 73 day Dolkam stand off which triggered war worries in India’s ‘free for all’ partisan media. It did wonders for India’s defence to deter China. It gave Army confidence. Army Chief Gen Rawat warned about two front war and Army has since exercised accordingly. First BZ !

The Navy brass in Ex Pariskshan at Mumbai beefed up its fire power and the Fleets and INS Arihant did its bit, and Navy Chief Adm Sunil Lanba exuded confidence in his first full TV interview despite reports of minor problems in nuclear submarines, not uncommon. Second BZ !

The Air Force kept whining about shortage of fighter squadrons but less is beautiful. IAF thanks to Doklam became readier for deterrent action as Army and Navy had, and Air Chief Dhanoa demonstrated jointness in Air power of India in Gagan Shakti amplified by IDF in this post. Third BZ ! Continue reading

ONLY DD TV COVERED 10TH DEFEXPO-OTHERS THE BLACK BALLOONS/FLAGS & CROWDS IN BLACK WITH ‘GO BACK MODI’ NARA—YET JUGADY DEFEXPO-18 WAS A PROFESSIONAL’S DELIGHT WITH POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS ON RAPE & FILTER COFFEE !

Ranjit B Rai……..

“In North Nescafe is popular. In South its Filter Coffee…..PM Modi speaks chaste Hindi in the North, and excellent English in the South at Defexpo………Viva Le Difference ! PM knows how  to re-boot.

10TH Defexpo 2018 was the show that saw Indian Private Defence Industry and PSUs  tie up with many foreign partners with least bureaucratic interference or permissions, hoping for orders and   production  so exports can take place. “Only when your Services use Indian wares can you export”, Thales lady rep at show spoke at FICCI seminar.  RM Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman wants exports at any cost from corridors in UP and Tamil Nadu, both political corridors but said I cannot force services to buy India made.  
Continue reading

A PREVIEW OF DEFEXPO 2018 THAT RM SITHARAMAN HAS BROUGHT TO A TEMPLE SOUTH OF CHENNAI –IT WILL SHOWCASE OUR DEFENCE MAKING & IMPORTING & THE MILITARY’S JUGAD TO MAKE IT A SUCCESS

IDF Preview Analysis of DEFEXPO –Salaam Jugad ! 

DEFEXPO-2018 with military fanfare and bandobast opens on the East Coast Road located near Kollam on the narrow East Coast Rd not very far from Mahabalipuram on the seaside  and this is a Preview  on April 10.th.   

If you do not attend this may help and if you attend see TATA’s South African partnership for jammer and EW station with Grintek, Kalyani with Turkey for UWAVs Navy is looking at, the Naval shipyards foreign tie ups and Vikrant’s  progress, Israel’s new Torpedo stopper and jammers and mortar firers and AK -103. No technology is barred for India and they know India is agold mine no matter who rules India and India’s fine military are professional led by non professional bureaucrats. War is serious business Churchill said after he headed the 1916 Tank Committee to make new tanks so later could win the war.

R.E.   Rogers the  transport contractors and decorators and many foreigners were seen racing  to present their wares at the show  on April 11th and PM comes ‘a fasting’ a new gimmick for foreigners to note  on 12thand IDF prays the Kaveri river water  trouble makers who showed up to protest IPL do not wave Black Flags to spoil “India: The Emerging Defence Manufacturing Hub”. Continue reading

INDIA’S DEFNCE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PERFORM TO ITS ABILITIES WITHOUT A STRATEGY & NO THEATRE COMMANDS OR CDS FOR SYNERGY AND JOINTNESS– INDIA IS A WORLD POWER WITH CHALLENGES THAT ONLY NSA HANDLES FOR PM ?

Ranjit B Rai 

Briefly this post is an Analysis on  ‘Strategic Thinking’ for India which  is defined as a  thinking process applied by an individual or  group with the aim  of achieving success in a game, business, endeavours, foreign policy  or goals in war and peace.  Strategy is steered like a ship’s course,  and corrected along the way as currents and tides will cause drift, but the course is always clear to the ship’s Captain and the  key crew members,  to avoid collisions or grounding. 

It was Rand Corporation’s George Tannan who said Indians do not have Strategic Thinking in their ways. It upset many as Khushwant Singh said Indians can criticize but do not like being criticized.  Continue reading

PART 1 ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIST ARTICLE SAYS — INDIA’S ARMED FORCES – A PAPER ELEPHANT- INDIA SPENDS A FORTUNE ON DEFENCE AND GETS POOR VALUE FOR MONEY

Maldives Looks To Be In China’s ‘Necklace Of Ports’ In IOR & China Thwarts India’s Plans On Assumption Island – Only Malacca ‘Dilemma’ & ‘Quad Plus France Pose’ Challenges As China Looks To A Donglam/Jhamperi Take Over With Long Term Strategies On CPEC & Pakistan is the background.

Ranjit B Rai with inputs. PART 2 Will Discuss USA India China & Quad.

“Wars are won by Strategy – That Only Can Dictate The Tactics”. Churchill implied.

This post is tabled after reading the latest analysis on INDIA’S DEFENCE by the world respected analytical Magazine,‘The Economist’, which has labeled the Indian Armed Forces—- ‘A PAPER ELEPHANT’.

If IDF had said this, it would be called ‘Fake News’ by the Government’s I&B which cannot stomach criticism. The circular to punish Fake News thankfully has been withdrawn so IDF is back, and can comment to navigate issues on India’s security.

IDF agrees with Economist that India’s Armed Forces are a professional powerful tactical Elephant, not a ‘Paper Elephant’ but it is unguided by its Mahout or Director ( BJP has had 4 RMs who loved IAF’s VIP Flights and 2 had Kotah House Stays) or Strategy or Jointness and the Elephant is not well fed (Budgets) and all three services are doing well, but doing their own thing. Continue reading

NAVY NEEDS TO SHOUT FOR MORE PLATFORMS APPROVED BY DAC AND REQUEST FOR A NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY TO ASSUAGE ASEAN LEADERS SECURITY CONCERNS—–IN A WHITE PAPER ?

Ranjit B Rai

India’s oratorical & confidence oozing  Prime Minister Narendra Modi well hosted the 10 ASEAN  seasoned leaders who have a tougher job than him leading their countries combined 1.8 bill people with $ 2.9 Trill economies. The ‘show sha’ and RD parade was outstanding as India is now rich to splurge money, but where & what was the substance is the question, IDF grapples with.

ASEAN   sees India not able to solve its poverty and now divisiveness as Padmavat was raging, experience  changes in policy and is unable to display  a strategy to deal with China and Pakistan, or reduce red tape. They worry.

Their concerns  will never come out in the open and Indian MEDIA REPORTED THEY FEEL INDIA IS NOT DOING MUCH FOR MARITIME SECURITY TO MATCH CHINA. This is only partly true as they look for stability more than a India China slanging match as China sustains their economy and business is inter twined. China has a clear cut policy to re-ascend the world and is the richer that USA or EU.

ASEAN know the 21st Century is   poised to be a Maritime Century and the litmus test of how India performs to protect its maritime interests and those of its  friendly ASEAN and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) nations as the Net Security Provider of the latter, is dependent on how India steers and peaceful balance  in the China-India power play in the Indo-Pacific. ASEAN wants to see India solve its problems  especially border with China and Pakistan and keep the peace. Continue reading

CDR JADHAV UPDATE—PROPOGANDA & AND SPECULATION WHETHER HE IS A BUSINESSMAN WILL BE ADJUCATED BY ICJ ON EVIDENCE BUT AFTER ACCESS AS IN ARTICLE 36(1)(C) OF THE VIENNA CONVENTION ON CONSULAR RELATIONS

Ranjit B Rai 

In April 2017 IDF never imagined the case of 47 year old Cdr Kulbhushan Yogesh Jadhav picked up by ​Pakistan from Iran  (As a Baluch evidenced  on CNN news on 4th Dec, 2018)  would become a national issue and posted an Intelligence analysis on 14th April, 2017 about this technical Naval Officer Ex  NDA (1987)  in sympathy,  as Pakistan’s ISI is an Anti India Weapon of propaganda and terror against India of the military of Pakistan in power, and Pakistan’s Dirty Tricks Department. Every Intelligence Agency  has one, but deny it. 

Intelligence oldest profession with prostitution has three stages.  Espionage ( Legally  by Diplomats) by  any one who accepts risk as a national duty. Next    Subversion needs resources  and last Sabotage  by trained specialists.  Cdr Jadhav is accused single handedly of all that, and Counselor access denied and no friendly country nominated to do the needful as ISI will twist the issues as they are now  issuing propaganda videos on his wife and mother’s visitation as his confession to them.  Iran who hosted Jadhav is silent. Two  developments caught IDF’S interest. 

1. On 23rd Dec,2017 in  Indian Express’s Edit page Newsweek Editor Khaleed Ahmed wrote, “Some say it is going to be a case of exchange of spies. India caught Md  Habib Zahir, the retired Colonel of the Pakistan Army who disappeared from Lumbini near Nepal’s border with India and is suspected to be Indian custody”.   Continue reading

HINDUTVA & TEMPLE ELECTION JOSTLES IN 2018-19 & INDIA’S KNOWN–UN KNOWN ECONOMY WILL DICTATE MOD/MEA’s ACTIONS TO MEET CHINA & PAKISTAN AS USA MAKES INDIA ITS EASTERN STAR PIVOT IN A COLD WAR WITH QUAD SUPPORTING

Ranjit B Rai

IDF wishes readers a ‘Belated Happy Healthy New Year’, as Uranus (Arun) races to Aires( Mesh Rashiphal) and the Chinese move to the year of the Dog.

 IDF  re-iterates the accepted  triangle  that,  ECONOMY  provides  RESOURCES FOR HARD POWER for  a nation’s military,  and GEOGRAPHY and its POPULATION’s appetite  marks   its acceptability for International business  partnerships and economic   growth,  respectively.  Money makes the Mayor run as they say !

Second rule for 2018-19  is Military means alone never  solved a political problem like  Kashmir (PDP-BJP)  and Pakistan’s terrorism. Learn from history  our fine Indian Army. Remember Op  Pawan Gen Sundarji promised and we lost 1400 souls as history re-winds and even Pakistan’s military in power  is faltering. Regional security is going to be key for India’s progress.

 

IDF turns to India’s advantageous Geography. India’s  neighbours Pakistan, Maldives, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka  all maritime states and critical border state Nepal going into 2018-19  have links and dependency on  China. They  are being  bought,  as their economies are poor. President  Trump is bent on stopping that with India and wants to stop aid to Pakistan to please India. Trump will demand a  pound of flesh,  and he is impetuous. Expect surprises !   Continue reading

THE STRATEGIC SCENARIO IN THE INDO- PACIFIC IS IN NAVY DAIRY-2018 WITH SURVEYS BY UDAY ON IOR – SHASHANK & ALAM (RUSI) ON JAPAN & PAKISTAN & PRASUN ON IRAN AND AUTHOR ON CHINA’s MARITIME AMBITIONS

THE FUTURE & MODERN INDIAN NAVY –NAVY DAIRY 2018 –Forwards by Navy and CG Admirals. Variety Book Depot and Bahri Booksellers Delhi Rs 200. Bulk 30% discount for Services and institustions. Kotah House Rs 100/-

Economy makes the mayor run,  and China’s economy is five times India and the nation has risen, all people can read, cry and sing in one language in competition with nationalism spurred by President Xi Jinping’s China Dream. 

India has got  wrapped in unhealthy politics of religion and grab for power, at the expense of Governance. But India has maritime geography, massive capable youth  if trained and democracy and friends all over the world and needs to take advantage with a strategy, which India lacks.  Continue reading