A MENTAL MASTURBATION OF CHINA’S ‘GREAT MARITIME GAME’—BRI & ‘CAT’S PAW’ TO RING IOR WITH SUPPLY OF WARSHIPS & SUBMARINES & COMPLTE CPEC /BRI PROJECTS DESPITE OBJECTIONS—INDIA INVITED TO FLEET REVIEW & BRI—–CAN INDIA REFUSE BOTH AFTER WUHAN

Cmde Retd Ranjit B Rai Ex Vice President Indian Maritime Foundation

Dear Friends,
I thank the Hainan University that pursues Public Diplomacy for inviting me again to discuss a relationship between two great countries India and China which were friends and rich two centuries ago, then were humiliated by Foreign Powers and cohesion was lost between the two after the 1962 border war. Today both are rising and appear more friendly despite disagreements our relationship will matter in the future of Asia. Xiexie 谢谢 again.

I come at a time when security architecture dominated by the United States, wishes to include India, Japan, and Australia into a QUAD and China US is in a trade war. In March 2018, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the ‘Indo-Pacific’ as ‘an attention-grabbing idea’ that would ‘dissipate like ocean foam’. Interestingly, however, Chinese thinking seems to have undergone a major transformation since then, turning ‘adversity’ into ‘opportunity’. As the Chinese saying goes, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” Continue reading

THE 1999 KARGIL & BALAKOT ATTACKS ON 26TH MARCH 2019 BY MIRAGES & PAF ATTEMPT ON 27TH WITH ORDNANCE DROP IN NAUSHERA SECTOR AND A MIG-21 KILL –THE PILOT WING CDR ABHINANDAN — RETURNED ———THIS IS THE MEDIA STORY— CREDITS PRASUN SENGUPTA & FROM CHINA

THIS IS A IDF BRIEF REPORT MADE SIMPLE ON BALAKOT ATTACK & KARGIL BOTH BY PGMs IS A IDF’S SALUTE TO MIRAGE 2000s —-THE HEROES IN BOTH FORAYS WITH  INPUTS ON NAVY NEEDING PLATFORMS ! NATIONS NEEDS CDS & JOINT GROWTH FOR SECURITY WHICH DOES NOT COME CHEAP !

The IAF procured 59 Mirage-2000Hs (7 Twin TH) in tranches from 29th June 1985 for the No.7 Battleaxes Squadron after a contract with the French Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA) was signed in 1982. The IAF have since lost 7 Mirages some with fatalities and 51 are being upgraded (4 in France and rest by HAL). They got Israeli Rafael Litening EW Laser and dispensing pods in 1999 for their Laser guided bomb kits from countries including Spain and USA used in final stages of the KARGIL ops and SPICE 60 km navigation bomb dispensers in 2004 and Crystal Maze’ (Popeye-Lite) terminal terrain guidance and GPS seekers from RAFAEL for attacking high-value static targets like aircraft storage hangars/ shelters used in Balakot, all called Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) one shot kill weapons. MIG-29s have Russian PGMs. These if well maintained should not fail and are expensive. MOD needs noting. Continue reading

IDF TABLES THE PAPER PRESENTED IN HAINAN ON INDIA CHINA COOPERATION POST PRESIDENT XI JINPING & PM MODI MAY SUMMIT AT WUHAN & QUINDAO ON 16TH MARCH 2019 AFTER READING AMBASSADOR LOU ZHAOHUI ‘s LONG EDIT IN INDIAN EXPRESS WITH PHOTOS OF CHINA’S SUVs BUSES AT 70% COST OF INDIA AND HIGH QUALITY LIKE THEIR MOBILES .

IDF TABLES THE PAPER PRESENTED IN HAINAN ON INDIA CHINA COOPERATION POST PRESIDENT XI JINPING & PM MODI MAY SUMMIT AT WUHAN & QUINDAO ON 16TH MARCH 2019 AFTER READING AMBASSADOR LOU ZHAOHUI ‘s LONG EDIT IN INDIAN EXPRESS WITH PHOTOS OF CHINA’S SUVs BUSES AT 70% COST OF INDIA AND HIGH QUALITY LIKE THEIR MOBILES .

Cmde Retd Ranjit B Rai Ex Vice President Indian Maritime Foundation

Dear Friends,
I thank the Hainan University that pursues Public Diplomacy for inviting me again to discuss a relationship between two great countries India and China which were friends and rich two centuries ago, then were humiliated by Foreign Powers and cohesion was lost between the two after the 1962 border war. Today both are rising and appear more friendly despite disagreements our relationship will matter in the future of Asia. Xiexie 谢谢 again.
I come at a time when security architecture dominated by the United States, wishes to include India, Japan, and Australia into a QUAD and China US is in a trade war. In March 2018, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the ‘Indo-Pacific’ as ‘an attention-grabbing idea’ that would ‘dissipate like ocean foam’. Interestingly, however, Chinese thinking seems to have undergone a major transformation since then, turning ‘adversity’ into ‘opportunity’. As the Chinese saying goes, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
How China and Hainan can contribute in these circumstances will be presented. We have differences. In 2017 India became a member of the China-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with Pakistan with whom India has border issues and China has the CPEC. India’s entry has increased the eight-member group’s heft in regional geo-politics giving it a pan-Asian hue. I am here to present a picture of BRI from India as a member of Indian Maritime Foundation and present these personal views after studying the private meeting between President Xi Jinping and our Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Wuhan in May 2018 and then they met again few weeks later at Qingdao in June to attend the annual (SCO) Summit. India is in the throes of a watershed election with Hindu party BJP trying to win the mandate again. Continue reading

IN MEMORY OF A REBEL LEADER RIP A PORTRAIT OF SHRI GEORGE FERNANDES CHAPTER 6 2000 REPRODUCED FROM BOOK VISHNU BHAGWAT SACKED OR SUNK BY CMDE RANJIT B RAI AND BRIG RP SINGH ———-BANNED BY MOD LETTER ON FERNANDES’S ORDERS AND A PHONE CALL TO IDF AND PUBLISHER TO SELL COPIES AS RADDI

IDF REPRODUCES A CHAPTER FROM A BOOK ON THE DRACONIAN ARTICLE 311/312 UNDER WHICH ADM VISHNU BHAGWAT WAS SACKED ON 30TH DEC 1988 WITH NO RECOURSE TO COURTS AFTER SUCCESSOR WAS SECRETLY FLOWN IN BY A RAW PLANE ALL PLANNED BY LATE GEORGE FERNANDES AND SUPPORTED BY PPS SECRETARY TO PM VAJPAYEE BRAJESH MISRA THAT  CM JAYALALITHA USED TO TOPPLE THE BJP GOVERNMENT—-MOST FOREIGN CHIEFS READ THE BOOK ! ARMED FORCES DO NOT KNOW HOW ART 311 IS USED AS A SWORD OF DAMOCLES !

 

George Fernandes, the well-known spectacled labour leader, with a mop of tousled grey hair, invariably clad in khadi kurta-pyjama even on most formal occasions, was born on 3rd, June 1930 in Mangalore, which is now in Karnataka.  His long rough and tough political career was spent in Bombay leading trade unions in Bihar with the Mafia amongst others (IN MDL ALSO BESIDES RAILWAYS)and in New Delhi opposing the Nehru Congress family dynastic rule with dogged stances from the opposition benches. Continue reading

CMC HEAD JINPING PLANS REDUCTION OF PLA BY HALF TO BEEF UP PLA(N) & PLA(AF) TO INCREASE CHINA’S POSTURE TO TAKE ON USA WITHOUT WAR—THIS SHOULD EXACERBATE INDIA’S CONCERNS & IDF RECOMMENDS NEEDS TO INCREASE INDIA’S DEFENCE SPENDING—-IDF WILL ANALYSE 1ST FEB BUDGET TO BE PRESENTED BY CA GOYAL AS IDF PREDICTED!

Ranjit B Rai

This is an IDF analysis of why China is reducing its Army by half which actually, is the less half trained and less kitted Army of PLA, at a time when China’s economy is slowed and population is aging. There are pointers for India to act in National Interests.  Even Indian Army wants IBGs more trained and more equipped than the rest of the Army and reduce manpower. But India has unemployed youth….So Its Catch 22 !

At a conference currently in Delhi with Chinese educationists IDF spoke on the sidelines to the Chinese experts and was told this step was thought out over the last year in China. The visiting Chinese team of researchers from Peking University and Indian experts on China are gathered to ‘Share Experiences on Vocational Education in China and India’ under the aegis of Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS). The acronym VET–Vocational and Educational Training (VET) came up in every paper.

The cost analysis and benefits by providing pension and re-vocational-ising/training half its Army in Chinese Universities and in Vocational Schools at Government cost in short courses is a calculated move to improve skills with state support to be more efficient for investment into the strategic industries as China ages, and they will be skilled for the manufacturing industry and contribute to human development in China. These issues have been factored in to the Case Studies done in China, and IDF learnt this is not an impetuous move like India announces (DEMONET and 36 Rafales etc which bounce, and then the Government grapples how to implement. More the nation is skilled like USA, Germany etc more the nation can prosper and Chinese admit they have a long way to go even compared to Hong Kong, and cited India too. Continue reading

FLASH REVIEW OF BOOK “MILITARY STRATEGY FOR INDIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY” BY GENS AK SINGH & BS NAGAL—- THIS BOOK MAY GOAD NSA &MOD TO ARTICULATE NATIONAL INTERESTS ON DIRECTIONS OF PM MODI FOR THE MILITARY TO PLAN ACQUISITIONS AND WRITE WAR & CONTINGENCY PLANS

—– Ranjit B Rai

This is an IDF Commentary of a timely book on a ‘Military Strategy for India in the 21st Century’,  by Lt Gen AK Singh former Lt Governor of A&N who may have surveyed Naval underwater and over water intrusions into the IOR by PLA(N) and  Lt Gen Balraj Singh Nagal ex SFC Commander who worked with  NSA and Service Chiefs on nuclear issues and knows capabilities for No First Use.

The book has chapters by practioners of equipment and tactical military management more than strategy per se. Government in power takes  Strategic decisions and no MOD experienced bureaucrat or politician has a chapter in the informative book for all in uniform to read.The book is edited for CLAWs for Knowledge World to publish as a business venture. It was released at CLAWS on 19th Jan with media present by former Chiefs of the Army  Gen VN Sharma and Gen JJ Singh Ex Governor of Arunachal.

Gen Sharma was C-in-C Pakistan in Op Brasstacks conducted by COAS Gen K Sunderji and VCOAS Lt Gen SF Rodrigues in 1988 at Palam with US imported computers for replay and analysis. IDF was lucky to be Gen Sharma’s C-in-C Pakistan Navy and PN kept Indian Navy at Bay with a Bastion Strategy making a 200 km impregnable circle  from Karachi. Bastion strategy is not well studied in India, but Navy exercises to face it since. When Pakistan was losing the land war it called for a Cease Fire. Talk of nuclear threat was not allowed. Continue reading

COAS GEN RAWAT IS RESTRUCTURING HIS ARMY FOR QUICK RESPONSE DICTATED BY ECONOMIC COMPULSIONS BUT WHAT IS NEEDED IS REFORM OF THE ARMED FORCES WITH MOD —- A RESTRUCTURED ARMY WITHOUT IN BUILT AIR & NAVAL SUPPORT REPEATS PATCH WORK ! REFORM IS NEEDED !

   This is an IDF Analysis as there is no ownership of Defence per se in India. Foreign Defence Attaches in Delhi report to Multiple heads and Indian Defence Attaches abroad in Embassies are independent with no Defence Attache. This embarrasses the Heads of Missions; ask them ? India has no Armed Forces Day and Jointness has been talked of with Theatre Commands, Maritime Security Apparatus (MSA) in BJP’s manifesto and a CDS but another strong Government is now in Lame Duck Circuit to fight elections. It is “Jaisa The”, but the Armed Forces have gone from strength to strength no doubt under BJP in a 36 Rafale syndrome manner.

 

The Army has been hard pressed to fight wars, insurgencies, terror and even help Governments in political unrests, which as Army Chief Gen Bipin Rawat said, “An army has to do what the Government orders”, citing the joint success of the 1971 war implying and hoping the Government will not misuse India’s  Army ! He forgets Field Marshal Manekshaw’s stance. If CBI is seeing turmoil the Army of 1.2 million is a bigger kettle of fish like a bucking horse. Continue reading

ADM SUNIL LAMBA COMMISSIONED INDIAN NAVY’s HISTORY 2001 -2010 TO FOLLOW EARLIER FIVE CHRONICLES BUT WITH NO WARS ‘BLUE WATERS AHOY’ BY ADM ANUP SINGH LISTS THE DECADE OF NAVY’S ACHIEVEMENTS —BRAVO BRAVO ZULU !

This is a snap book review by IDF of BLUE WATERS AHOY (Harper Collins 430 pages ISBN 9-789553-025526430.

 

The voluminous 430 paged chronicle is printed with high resolution pictures in a coffee table form and is freely available on the net on https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/links for Maritime Beavers to appreciate how Indian  Navy became a Force to reckon with and is rated number  5 in the world. The book explains the ingredients of its rise.

 

India Defence Forum (IDF) has a confession to make. The book is long but as it has many professional features that Naval officers of yore started and the Admirals of the decade 2001-10 have taken forward, it was a pleasure to rush through the chapters. It surprises many to learn how Indian Navy carries out 24 major exercises annually, maintains advanced ships in crowded infrastructure, fires powerful Klub and BrahMos missiles and shows the Flag around the world with succor in HADR and control piracy and how Naval Wives in NWWA help. Continue reading

INDIAN ARMED FORCES FINEST HOUR VIJAY DIVAS 16th DEC 1971 APPEARS RECEEDED DUE TO POLITICS OR DOES GLORY OF WAR NOT INTEREST INDIANS & ALSO LESSONS OF JOINTNESS NEED TO BE LEARNT –THAT IS THE BIBILCAL QUESTION NEEDS ANSWERING

This is an IDF analysis on war and IDF has rolled up its sleeves to table half a dozen Questions in Arnab Goswami style. Brick bats are welcome.
The Eternal Flame, the Ulta Shastra Rifle and the Bayonet at the Amar Jawan Jyoti under New Delhi’s impressive India Gate built by the British to honour India’s military contribution and supreme sacrifices in World War One, truly belongs to the India’s unknown soldier. It is the nation’s salute to those who gave their all to see surviving Indians live in peace and India rises with no threats especially to its territorial security and show India’s Flag and HADR world over after the glorious victory in 1971 which disremembered Pakistan into two. Bangla Desh was born. It led to Victory Day on 16th Dec 1971. So the subject is war and lessons in this century to synthesize the Army Navy & Air Force and Government must take responsibility for it. .

War, Churchill said, is a most serious matter that needs understanding and rushed to Parliament from semi retirement in 1939, with the intelligence about Germany leaked to him in national interest. He convinced the house that he was the man needed to lead UK in World War ii to Victory. He did smoking a Cigar, sipping brandy and directing the war with a pretty trusted secretary by his side. But he lost PM ship, so wrote six Volumes to win the Nobel prize, called the ‘War: Resolution, In Defeat: Defiance, In Victory: Magnanimity, In Peace:’ Continue reading

FORGOTTEN HEROES—— LT CDR AKU ROY VRC WAS AN ADVENTUROUS OFFICER IN BOTH SECTORS IN THE 1971 WAR DESH CAUGHT& THRASHED BY INDIAN ARMY SAVED BY MAJOR CHANDRAKANT VRC—THAT IS WAR

From Warring Nuclear Navies Ranjit B Rai 

Another unsung hero of the 1971 war is Lt Cdr Ashok Roy (Missing in Action Presumed Dead) who served in and near East Pakistan from Calcutta with the Mukti Bahini before the 1971 war and later in the Western Sector flying a Breguet Alize on a Electronic Warfare .sortie during the war in December, when he was lost. 

A very interesting question of the 1971 war which has not been answered with definite proof is how this fine young pilot Lt Cdr Ashok Roy went down in Alize No. 203 on a flight from Jamnagar to Bombay with Lieutenant Sirohi and Chief Aircrew-man Vijayan. Ashok called Aku, had endeared himself to each and every one who had come in contact with him. He was an emotional, strapping red-faced ‘Pathan Like’ looking officer whose mother was an Estonian. He was the son of Brig A.N. Roy (later Major General) in the Medical Corps.  Continue reading