AFTER 4 YEARS IN POWER INDIA’S PAKISTAN POLICY & ART 370 REMAIN THE BJP/RSS’s DILEMMA & AND HAS BECOME ARMY’S CHALLENGE IN THE NATURE OF AN UNTAMED BEAST IN KASHMIR—CAN OUR FINE ARMY HELP TAME A POITCAL BEAST ? IDF SAYS THE JURY IS OUT ON THIS !

Ranjit B Rai

This analysis is sparked by two very interesting comments on IDF’s posts on the fine Indian Army’s restraint in the  Cease Fire in Kashmir, saying once again the Indian Army Commanders on LOC  in 2018 are  fighting with one arm tied,  as Army  is told every time the Government has no strategy, except in this case  ‘MU TORA JAWAB’ by the Army and Para Forces under separate Commands, Communications,  Commendations and Intelligence  (3CI)  and reminding Pakistan to vacate POK.  Water is flowing over rocks on LOC with legal Art 370 few understand as a promise to Kashmiris who forced  Hindus out and some left for better pastures !

Both these challenges of BJP have become the Army’s 24×7 responsibilities short of war in absence of orders  to take  actions like Israelis do in Gaza  to gain territory and quell Palestinians in Israel,   or even in Lebanon or Syria with no questions asked.  UN only  makes noises .   Russians did it to take it’s Cremea from Ukraine. Nuclear war is a worry for India but lacks  lack an alternate  strategy, so Army actions are tactical  and sacrificing on both sides !

 First spark to explain this post  is that 44 Uniformed souls have been lost  this year, many civilians killed and displaced  and Pakistan seems to have taken advantage of the BJP Government’s Cease Fire driven  to placate Muslims during Ramzan and Hindus for the Amarnath Yatra, temporarily reducing the dynamism  of the MU TORA JAWAB.   Continue reading

CHINA’S H-6K LANDS IN SCS’S TOURISTY WOODY – SHANDONG SAILS AS CHINA PLANS MINING NEAR ARUNACHAL TO POPULATE AREA FOR ITS CLAIMS—CHINA’S STRATEGY IS TO LEAD A BI-POLAR WORLD & RISE HARMONIOUSLY WITH INDIA BUT BE AN IOR POWER VIA CPEC – PM MODI – MEETS PUTIN AFTER USA SANCTIONS RUSSA & IRAN & CAASTA—–WHAT LIES AHEAD ?

Ranjit B Rai

PM Modi has returned from the resort of Sochi after an informal meet with President Putin at his request like with Xi Jinping in Wuhan in world changes, caused by President Trump.

In four years PM Modi has traveled to near 50 countries, like an NRI does, variedly hugged leaders, received hundreds with Chai (No liquor not even Asha) not taken Day’s leave as he is bereft of family, dressed nattily to make Indians proud and led India’s foreign affairs as ‘a personally driven and RSS planned policy’, to USA’s delight in what IDF calls- the Honeymoon period. It was consummated.

The marriage has to now survive and make babies. All marriages go through good and bad times. India has gained immensely with $ 15 bill military toys, technology, FDI and standing as the key to QUAD. No India—– no QUAD ? Russia and China know that ?

Hence United States has placed many eggs in India’s role in the newly coined Indo-Pacific aimed at containing China. India in return got support for NSG the last hitch, for acting as a counterbalance against China and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But IDF asks, does Trump administration’s policies on Iran, Afghanistan, trade and climate change in sync with India’s circumstances of poverty. If there is a conflict or differences between China and India, as on CPEC through POK will India have to face the pressures from China alone, as at Doklam. The worry is India runs in compartments.

Continue reading

LOOKING BACK — INDIA PRIVATELY CELEBRATED EX PRIME MINISTER RAJIV GANDHI’S DEATH ANNIVERSARY 21st MAY —IDF TABLES MILITARY EXTRACTS FROM THE BOOK “INDIANS WHY WE ARE WHAT WE ARE. ” Manas ISBN 81-7049-080-4

Ranjit B Rai

With BJP-RSS in power and heavily divided politics with etiquette and history in short supply (Papers are not released), the death anniversary of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was privately celebrated by the Family at Rajghat on 21st with loyalists. No Ekta Day ! India’s apolitical Military must accept it is more a political India which may see strains for senior ranks.

But what concerns IDF is Rajiv Gsndhi’s legacy on the Military and that lies in the Bofors Scandal actions and files that stalled modernization which hurts today and the unfortunate foray in to Sri Lanka in OP Pawan 1987-91 when 1400 Olive Green lost their souls.

In the book cited above both are explained in Chapters but Op PAWAN needs study by the Armed Forces with original papers which must be released to learn lessons, as History seems to be Repeating itself as it does, in J &K. Next door Pakistan has become a Rabid Emboldened Nation supported by China’s CPEC for China’s strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region. China feels India’s Net Security Provider excludes China from the Security Structure in IOR and now by a QUAD. Can India get back POK and hurt CPEC …without military action is the question Armed Forces and NSA must have studied. Continue reading

USA’S WITHDRAWL FROM THE NUKE DEAL SPOILS IRAN’S PARTY SO UAE’s ‘STRING OF PEARLS/ WEIQI’ GAINS IMPORTANCE OVER BAB EL MANDAB NARROWS — GARRULOUS PM MODI WILL DISCUSS USA’S CAASTA-OIL PRICES & WEAPONRY SUPPLIES AND SUCH WORLD ISSUES WITH MUSCULAR PUTIN AT SOCHI !

Ranjit B Rai

This IDF post includes two issues that IDF feels portrays what is happening in the world. Indian TV channels have nothing to report 24×7 but Karnataka. Its like the Rape of the Noblewoman Lucretia by Sextus the King’s son which led to the overthrow of the Roman Monarchy and India awaits to know who is overthrown in Karnataka.
As USA changes courses and China rises and adds three warships and an aircraft carrier in record time in the Era of Maritime Power, majority Hindu India has decided a Hindu Rashtra is the key to rise. RSS/BJP were always clear on this and only a truck with USA could help India meet the China challenge, as India’s old emotional friend Russia could not help much as before. USA has pushed Russia with sanctions in to the Chinese camp and created a challenge for India.

India has a strong capable secular military and a good economy but Mother India has been crying for ethical governance which Congress failed to provide and BJP seems to be finding it uphill to provide. It is at this stage PM Modi wings to Sochi to meet President Putin after he met President Xi Jinping in Wuhan. Putin never has a meeting without an agenda, so IDF offers the agenda in this post but two asides first.
FIRST ASIDE:- When the all powerful Republican Rightist President Bush of USA the sole super power was asked why USA attacked Iraq, he said because they had weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)……but when reminded they did not, he said but we made the world believe us ! When Trump was asked why he attacked Syria …He said they had WMDs(chemical) but when told but they did not, he said but we made the world believe us. But when they asked why USA did not attack North Korea……Trump said because that bloody young ‘fatboy’ Kim has nuclear weapons for sure ! Continue reading

RICH & STABLE UAE HAS STEALTHILY BECOME A WESTERN IOR MARITIME POWER GOADED BY FRANCE & SAUDI ARABIA—WEST ASIA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE—IT IS INDIA’S OIL LIFE LINE — WAR THERE WILL HIT INDIA & IS TRUMP CAUSING IT ? IS CHINA A PLAYER THAT INDIA NEEDS ? Part One.

Ranjit B Rai

The object of this post is to analyse a major strategic sea change that has stealthily taken place in the last five  years in the Western Indian Ocean Region (IOR)  where United Arab Emirates (UAE)  with a modern military flying potent planes and sailing warships (many  trained by India and Pakistan), with deep pockets and as India’s largest trading partner (Indian investments and workers)  has quietly  become a MARITIME Power in Western IOR with bases in Socotra and Aden in Yemen, and Berbera and Djibouti and Assab in Somaliland/Eritrea Ethiopia  and an air base in Somaliland.  Indian Navy OR media has not commented. Continue reading

1988 SHAKTI TESTS PROPELLED INDIA TO NUCLEAR POWER STATUS —HOW NUCLEARISATION PROGRESSED IS A LESS OFFICIALLY RESEARCHED STORY –PROJECTS LIKE ATV & MISSILES & SONARS ETC GOT A BOOST & IDF TABLES SNIPPETS THAT DO NOT FIND A PLACE IN INDIA’S NUCLEAR NARRATIVE

Ranjit B Rai 

This post follows the earlier Shakti post on www.indiadefenceforum.com and it explains how  the five 1988  nuclear  Shakti tests contributed to India being accepted as a nuclear bomb nation and  a Nuclear Power, and what good followed for India.  IDF already mentioned 5 Ex PM’s contributions.  Never underestimate India coming from behind ! 

China at its  highest level even agreed at the critical NSG for India’s Nuclear Deal meet to permit  USA at their  highest level (Bush or Condelezza Rice)to  sign the 123 Nuclear Agreement as a nuclear power with India. It was  with  a Quid Pro Quo for USA to allow Pakistan two more 1000 Mw Chashma nuclear plants under the grandfather Agreement pre 1965 which has boosted Pakistan’s Plutonium bomb making ability. China and  North Korea supported  Pakistan with missiles and arms, in pursuit of China’s  national ambitions to replace USA as a Indo-Pacific power and India holds many keys to that.  India’s military and economic power will matter as much as Pakistan’s possible implosion.   Continue reading

IDSA –PUGWASH 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF INDIA’S 5 NUCLEAR SHAKTI TESTS WAS CHAIRED BY ON SITE OFFICIAL WITH 3 DISCUSSANTS —- BUDDHA SMILING -1974 & FUSION BOMBS’ CONTROVERSY & TESTING UNDER CTBT & DEMATTED CORES CAME UP— BUT ATV & NFU DID NOT —PART ONE

 Ranjit B Rai

This is a 1400 worded  IDF Part One Analysis of India’s Nuclear Bombs  with a personal snippet and trailer of Movie Parmanu  as two nuclear tests  24 years apart changed India’s destiny. Why not earlier after 1974 is analysed in Part Two. 

Five  PMs deserve BZs.   Shakti  did not happen in  a day.  PM  Nehru for supporting Dr Homi Bhabha to keep at it, Mrs Gandhi for 1974 PNE tests and Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao giving fillip and funds and Gen K Sundarji and Arunachalam for pushing. And many more ! 

Late K Subrahmanyam approached  former PM Vajpayee and asked him to relate details  of the   run up to Shakti,  as much was not on file and possibly verbal.  Vajpayee told Doyen Strategist ‘Bomb Baba’ KS,   he had told  PM Dr Manmohan Singh all.  IDF feels Data is vanishing as actors age !  

 Most Cabinet Ministers and even Service Chiefs were not aware though Army  Engineers secretly transported six cores to Pokhran  from BARC Mumbai and brought back one unused plutonium core and built the  L shaped tunnels and trigger wires for the core in 1974 and  for 1988 tests  stronger cement was used for tunnels like for naval jetties,  and varied and deeper 221 mtrs and more L shaped.   Today DRDO has a large complex at Pokhran and a fine 12 Guards Regiment near by !  Continue reading

GAGAN SHAKTI DEPICTED INDIA’S AIR SEA BATTLE FORTE FOR ENHANCED MARITIME POWER— NAVY’S AVIATION HAS EXPANDED BUT HOLES NEED PLUGGING -PRESIDENT XI JINPING INNAUGRATED SEA TRIALS OF CARRIER SHANDONG AS J-31s MAY REPLACE THE HEAVY J -15s——FROM SU-35 EXPERIENCE !

Ranjit B Rai 

This post must begin with a IDF salute to the Indian Air Force led by ACM BS Dhanoa  for  Exercise Gagan Shakti’s wide  planning and good execution as it showed  professionals the power of Air Power and Air Land co-operation with Duck Drops and Evacuations and also Air- Sea Battle Capability in snippets towards the Malacca Straits.  If Indian Military adopts Air Land and  Air Sea Strategies  to make the Indian Army, Indian Air Force and Indian Navy to hone their offensive and Search, Locate  and Attack capabilities with aerial refueling for long distance operations along with  a nuclear-submarine -aircraft carrier ‘Task Force’ for Blue Water operations for show of deterrence, much can  be achieved in the years ahead quite easily as the base exists and Gagan Shakti showed it. Continue reading

IDF SALUTES WOMEN IN WHITE FOR “SAILING A ‘KISHTI’ AGAINST TOOFANS ROUND THE WORLD”-& FELICITATES NAVY & ARCHITECT ADM AWATI AT A TIME NAVY’S EXPANSION IS SLOWED WITH A STARVATION BUDGET 2018-19 —— DESERVES MORE ‘SEA LEGS’ FOR MARITIME POWER —IDF OFFERS SOLUTIONS

 Ranjit B Rai 

This IDF post must start with a Salute and a Bravo Zulu(BZ) by this old time  1974 Yachting Bronze Medalist,   to the six women officers— Lt Cdrs Pratibha  Jamwal, and P Swathi, and Lts Vijaya Devi, B Aishwarya and Payal Gupta led by skipper Lt Cdr Vartika Joshi. Its challenging  to propel a Kishti(Boat) forward against  wind power and face Toofans (Storms), and avoid  capsizing or attacks.  And the six women in white with grit went sailing  “Round Our  Dangerous Terror Filled World’s  Oceans.” They will touch Goa soon.

The girls  were trained by and have followed Cdrs Dhonde; and Abhilash Tomy, the 79th person in the world to complete solo unassisted. This is what makes Navies great in spirit,  and felicitations to the Navy for the organizational support and Adm M P Awati ‘a Sailor’ who pushed Navy to allocate funds with zeal to make the achievements possible.  Continue reading

CHINA MUST BE ANALYSING INDIA’S TILT TO USA & THE QUAD AS INDIAN OFICERS JOIN US COMMANDS ? DPC’s TASK IS TO EQUIP & RE-STRUCTURE MILITARY & PLAN STRATEGY FOR PAKISTAN-CPEC & UAE FOR MDA & WIN BHUTAN & SAFEGUARD INDIA IRAN BIZ AS TRUMP HAS WALKED AWAY

 Ranjit B Rai 

This Part Two post attempts to analyse  the crucial Defence Planning Committee’s task (DPC), as past attempts by committees have been futile. 

 India  cannot  become  a major Power on borrowed technology sans IPRs or imported hardware. Over the years  Defence Ministers and Secretaries and even Service Chiefs have not been able to exert themselves so an able NSA has been asked to steer a DPC.   The Army has been loaded to keep India one and even today is in a political role in Kashmir. The  Air Force looked to world’s best while  Navy did  good planning  but this year it is starved. That is IDF’s next post. 

 DPC must work swiftly as MOD is likely to  defer decisions and Armed Forces will look forward to DPC for equipment and  restructuring into   theatre commands, and define strategic priorities as India has tilted to USA and EU.  UAE has silently expanded its MDA reach in Socotra, Somalia and Yemen and controls Aden. Trump has walked away from the Iran Nuclear Deal. 

Hence China will be studying India’s moves, as India and USA study China’s  jointly.    Continue reading