THE ADMIRALS OF THE NAVY WHO OCCUPIED THE BIG WHITE CHAIR IN SOUTH BLOCK & ARE NO MORE NEED TO BE REMEMBERED WITH THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE RISE OF THE INDIAN NAVY—ADM JG NADKARNI WAS KNOWN FOR OP GODSAL –A SEAMANSHIP TASK WELL DONE SIR BZ ! RIP.

IDF has received several  personal  responses  on  Admiral JG  Nadkarni’s  OBIT, and hence produces a few with his photograph.  

 Vice Admiral MP Awati former FOC-in-C West that IDF served briefly as COPO now called CSO(Ops),  had a booming voice, a majestic gate and  is   devoted to the Navy even  today and is credited for pushing the Navy’s Round The World Voyages which has earned Navy plaudits,  has this to say, “Podgy’ Nadkarni was my contemporary, he belonged to a rare breed of seamen and leaders of seamen attempting to resurrect a once enviable maritime tradition. I was privileged to have his support when I was struggling to consolidate  my attempt to revive interest in our history at sea.” Warm regards Manohar AwatI.

 Cdr Hirak Nag writes, “As a Midshipman on the Delhi I was once made his ‘Doggie’ and remember once displaying my annoyance for him having sent me aft on a small errand and I had displayed my annoyance for being sent on what I thought, was an un-necessary  job. Noting that he sent me again for a small job making me realize,  my fault for questioning a senior officer. He had, thereafter treated me well. He was a fine officer, and a fine Chief”. Continue reading

CAN INDIA SIT ON THE FENCE OVER TRUMP’S SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA ?—UNLIKELY– BUT IT CAN GET EXEMPTION FROM CAASTA IF IT CUTS A DEAL WITH TRUMP —— BUY THE PLANES WE NEED BADLY FROM USA —- AN RFI IS OUT ! GO FOR IT —–TO PLEASE BOTH USA AND RUSSIA !

Ranjit B Rai

IDF appends  what IDF  POSTED  after PM Modi’s visit to USA in 2015 on invitation by President Obama as thanks   for  signing a Strategy Partnership for Asia Pacific which is Indo-Pacific now.  IDF analyzed PM Modi’s  visit. Indian Navy is  exercising  in RIMPAC off Hawaii and have consummated over 20 Malabars. India is now USA’S Defence Partner and USA”s maritime arm , that IDF analyzed two years ago.

TRIUMPHANT MODI   RENEWS ONE PAGE  INDO-US DEFENCE FRAME WORK  — INDIA  TO GET STRONGER   OR ALSO  BE BEHOLDEN TO USA IN ITS CAMP  ?  

 

This is an IDF Analysis of PM Modi’s USA visit on Security and Maritime issues. Any  one who  forgets history will repeat the mistakes.  

 PM’s  Navratri trip  to US was a  success. More  military wares will be ordered from USA and FDI  in Defence is looked forward to,   but what about security consequences for India in the long run ? Must have been thought out, as USA will expect in its national interests for  India to be USA’s  strategic  and economic bulwark in the East, without India saying so. Modi has gambled on USA and also stated, “India will Go East”.

Will Indian Armed Forces become  beholden to USA’s military industrial complex(MIC)   like India was,  and  is still to the USSR/Russia  for its military technology or will India balance USA and Russia while still dancing the Tango with USA,  Israel and Japan  and Foxtrot with China ?  Missteps in security decisions can prove debilitating, as security scenarios change and nations have to take sides. In Cold War India was in the Soviet camp if analyzed.

POST QUOTE ENDS

When Soviet Union had no friends and India  opposed USA ‘with get out of the Indian Ocean’( and now we say please come USA ), the  Soviets  made  India  its  Defence Strategy Partner and India won the 1971 war with Soviet supplied weapons. The joke was Admiral Gorshkov and Soviet Brigadier Generals in their Army and Air Force planned our three services so we are still 60 % Russian which Trump does not like.

 India blindly  voted with Soviet Union in UN those days and this was the price we paid as we bought arms with  loans. Friends of the Government named  in Tavleen Singh’s book,  ‘Durbar’ they imported computers and TV sets etc from abroad with licenses and exported to Soviet Union over priced from India. FFE went down. We paid back Russia in rupees less as  Rouble devalued with Soviet Union’s break up.

India  went  broke for FFE in 1991. India had no option but open up. Trump now   wants India to open up and  make USA great and feels he can make India great. Condelezza Rice said it when she came with President Bush 10 years ago. We were undecided then, and PM Modi has committed.

Today  India’s Russian supplied military inventory, planes,  helicopters and submarines have to go to Russia for  certification  or refits and to  Russians for nuclear safety for nuclear submarines  in India,  so no way can India do without Russia for some time. INS Vikramaditya and Mig-29K need support. Phalcons too. The next  Kundankulam plant is shipped from Russia.

IDF REPEATS nothing comes free in the world of politics and foreign policy, so in Non Alignment days till 1980s  India got no goodies from USA and Pakistan feasted.  FDI to India was low , no technology came, no defence manufacturing of its name  was set up by our bureaucrats and Indian diplomats proudly said India was a poor nation and served Nimboo Pani at Receptions. It will be same  now with BJP/RSS edicts !

USA sold oil rigs and refineries we needed badly and  as Indians did not know prices many made the hay ! US PL-480 TITLE 1 Free grains and Vegetable oil free,  with shipping to be paid to the Conference Dollars to USA’s Waterman and India’s SCI and, TITLE 2  Free grains, pulses  and Vegetable oil with shipping  to be paid and to be sold through Amul and money from sales  in Rupees was  given to USAID and US Embassy in India. TITLE 3 free help  in calamities. So USA enjoyed India to dump excess agriculture and supplied all refineries as captive business. USA is now a Oil and Gas exporter and India is a buyer. India is now e buying from USA and knows it can replace Iran.

In all this despite poverty India was a respected a nation with makings of a regional power because of its fine Military. Even today the Government has strength to talk as a Nuclear Military Power, though military is degraded, some of its own making.

 1991 liberalization showed India can grow and  soon  India was out of the woods and by 1998 Shakti Nuclear explosions India arrived on the world stage and there is no looking back no matter which Government governs India. Its military runs on JUGAD and its strong to take on an adversary. .

India has no strategy but has  five year plans,  and Public Sector Undertakings as it grew from the Hindu rate of growth to 5 to 6%  and hands clapped,  but poverty remained despite the Slogan GARIBI HATAO, it remains a slogan. Added to that  DEMONET and GST without education to poor  in digital technology has hit 25% of India’s poor population. It has emboldened the Hindu right to come to power on a religion called Hindutva  !

Poverty will not go away unless India grows at 8%, liberalises its industry and banking, its ways of doing business and brings in manufacturing for export and defence and sets up big fruit farms and slowly attends to agriculture to privatise other agriculture. Only then can we even think of competing economically with China. .

On defence and security  India today is in better shape as USA is on India’s side as its Defence Strategy Partner in the Indo-Pacific unwritten but to take on as a Pivot and Bulwark to China.

Defence Secretary Ashton Carter  had said, “The US is keen to forge a ‘closer and stronger’ military relationship with India, and a whole  ‘a whole bunch of things’ will be announced to boost Indo-US strategic ties. What we are looking for is a closer relationship and a stronger relationship as we can, because it is geo-politically grounded. The specific things we are doing with them is two-fold. One, we have the rebalance so to speak, westward from the United States. They have Act East, which is their strategic approach eastward. These are like two hands grasping one another and that’s a good thing”.

IDF states this  matches very much up with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative and  India is  very much aligned in terms of what the government is doing  strategically and economically, but President Trump’s CAASTA to sanction Iran and Russia may spoil PM Modi’s party.

 

Last week a big team from USA led by M/s Ellen  Lord  US Under Secretary for Defence Acquisition &  Sustainment met with Mr Ajay Kumar Secretary Defence Production( of only PSUs)  at the Manekshaw Centre as part of the 7th DEFENCE TECHNLOGY & TRADE INITIATIVE (DTTI) meet and repeated details of offers on the table of  number of weapons and technologies like EMALs, 28 Guardian

Drones  both from Atomics for the Navy and added to weaponise  the Guardians and IDF analysis is it could be the Helfire missile or Laser Guided bombs, and Under Water Drones and cooperation with DRDO.

 

It must be clear USA has $ 15 bill biz from India and ‘much wants more’ and wants to stop S 400 imports from Russia and RM and EAM are showing bravado by saying Trump’s sanctions mean nothing  for India, as India only obeys UN but also rejects its report on Kashmir.   

 

IDF FEELS India should try to get waiver for Russia as USA needs India for MARITIME CO-OPERATION, that  IDF has analyzed ad nauseam. Chances are good  but the back up strategy  would be to buy F-16 plant and planes or F-18s that IAF nned. In fact IDF has said this before that the 2 plus 2 meeting was delayed for Secretary of State Pompeo and Defence Secretary Gen Mattis to get India’s position and see if India inks S 400 import. The 2 plus two meet is now planned for November for EAM Swaraj and RM Sithraman.

To take on USA if Trump does not relent will be Apne Pair Pe Kulari…..Axe on one’s own feet !  Shan Na Varuna.

INDIA’S 12th NAVAL CHIEF ADMIRAL J G NADKARNI -A NAVIGATOR PAR EXCELLENCE & AN OPERATIONAL FLEET COMMANDER BREATHED HIS LAST BY THE SEA SHORE —–IDF SALUTES YOU SIR — -RIP SIR !

Ranjit B Rai 

Admiral  Jayant Ganpat Nadkarni PVSM NM AVSM was born on 5th Dec, 1931 in Bombay and passed away after an illness in INHS Asvini in Mumbai on 2nd July, 2018. 

He was accorded military honours in his home town Pune. His wife Vimal a  kind lady, pre-deceased him and bore an impaired eyesight with dignity, supported by her husband. They are  survived by  Radm Ravindra Nadkarni who is  following in  his father’s footsteps to serve the nation at sea,  and  is currently the Chief of Staff in the Southern Naval Command. Vijay the elder  is  settled in USA. IDF knew the fine courteous boys when he served the Admiral , and condoles with their families on behalf of those  who knew the Nadkarnis.  Continue reading

USA- PART 2—POT POURI ABOUT TRUMP & INDIA & PM MODI — AMERICANS ADMIT INDIANS ARE THE MOST INTELLIGENT/ HARDWORKING & CLEVER (CHATUR) INFLUENTIAL GROUP IN USA ! BUT WILL THAT HELP STRATEGIC AUTONOMY FOR INDIA ? SO INDIA WAITS FOR 2 PLUS 2 ?

Ranjit B Rai

This IDF post  is about India’s critical  geo-strategic and economic challenge to face USA’s sanctions and begs the question,  will Strategic  Autonomy that PM Modi desires be possible, for India ? The answer lies  in President Trump’s mood which PM Modi has stoked by inviting him to Republic day 26th Jan, 2019 .

After  PM Modi’s off  the record chats with Xi Jinping in Wuhan to maintain peace post Doklam and exchange of films etc, the space maps show consolidation by Chinese, a road to the  Dosa canal below the  Jhamperi  Ridge which Bhutan claims, but can do little, and beefing up of communication facilities, and planes and UAVs at Shigatse airbase. So China  watches  what India will do about Doklam and Trump’s sanctions on Russia and Iran  that US Congress and EU were  not in favour of as members of JCPOA. But EU has succumbed.  Will India do too ? It is a Hobson’s choice. Continue reading

LESSONS FROM AMERICA PART 2 -WHAT PEOPLE THINK OF USA & TRUMP & INDIA & PM MODI & HOW AMERICA RUNS — INDIANS ARE THE MOST INTELLIGENT ARGUMENTATIVE HARDWORKING CLEVER (CHATUR) PEOPLE IN AMERICANS’ CALCULUS— ! WILL STRATEGIC AUTONOMY SUCCEED ?

Ranjit B Rai 

IDF post  includes snippets  about American history and India to appreciate   how both progressed to ask will Strategic  Autonomy succeed with China as the Elephant in the room. 

USA and India today stand in a world moving away from multilateralism  to bilateralism in  trade and foreign policy led by USA. Two security blocks are forming with USA, Japan  and a  poorer NATO on one side and a rich China and Russia and Pakistan and nuclear North Korea on the other with a  Trade war of sanctions and tariffs let loose by President Trump, for India too. 

 President  Trump wants to trump China and Russia,  by damaging their  economy  but China’s capability to do business and manufacturing has matured and the $ 13 trill  economy will creep and  grow to challenge USA’s $ 20 trill. World growth will suffer as USA turns in ward to grow it’s own economy and will soon come to terms with China and EU as he heads to Russia on 16th July to make a deal with Putin. He knows EU depends on sanctioned Russian oil and gas with increased prices, and Russia’s military power  is rising. The FIFA cup showed it is capable !  IDF does not believe in PPP in a globalised world.  Continue reading

RICH & STABLE UAE HAS STEALTHILY BECOME A WESTERN IOR MARITIME POWER GOADED BY FRANCE & SAUDI ARABIA—WEST ASIA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE—IT IS INDIA’S OIL LIFE LINE — WAR THERE WILL HIT INDIA & IS TRUMP CAUSING IT ? IS CHINA A PLAYER THAT INDIA NEEDS ? Part One.

Ranjit B Rai
The object of this post is to analyse a major strategic sea change that has stealthily taken place in the last five  years in the Western Indian Ocean Region (IOR)  where United Arab Emirates (UAE)  with a modern military flying potent planes and sailing warships (many  trained by India and Pakistan), with deep pockets and as India’s largest trading partner (Indian investments and workers)  has quietly  become a MARITIME Power in Western IOR with bases in Socotra and Aden in Yemen, and Berbera and Djibouti and Assab in Somaliland/Eritrea Ethiopia  and an air base in Somaliland.  Indian Navy OR media has not commented. Continue reading

SMELL THE ROSES – INDIA’S STATUS IN USA’S CALCULUS IS NOT AS HIGH AS WE THINK ! WITH 2 PLUS 2 POSTPONED NIKKI HALEY TOLD INDIA ALL MUST CO-OPERATE ON IRAN SANCTIONS—INDIA LOOKS TO UAE & SEYCHELLES FOR BASES ?

Ranjit B Rai

This is a letter Ex America at a time in history when India is on the rise in what is dubbed as a Maritime Century. India’s geography, its intelligent population, its democratic ideals and its nuclear and fine military are its assets. Its economy is still nascent in comparison to USA, China, ASEAN and the West with restrictive policies that hinder Infrastructure and growth. But over 75 million are richer than Western Middle class, which gives India an aura of richness- sans manufacturing. Indians are now world travelers.

IDF had mulled over this Analysis awaiting Nikki Haley’s visit and 2 Plus 2 meet as discussions in USA revealed, “ USA has never allowed any nation ‘Strategic Autonomy’ that India professes is written in its foreign policy. Think this over with China, West Asia, Iran, Japan, Korea and the Cold War and even Pakistan in view.” IDF smelt the roses. Continue reading

IS THE TALIBAN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PAKISTAN’S ISI & THE HAQQANI DRUG NETWORK THE ANSWER TO AN INTERIM SOLUTION IN AFGHANISTAN ? HAS INDIA’S OPPOSITION TO A TALIBANI PAKISTAN SOLUTION DERAILED ALL ATTEMPTS ?

Ranjit B Rai

This is a letter from America after President Trump has done a deal with Kim Jong Un. It  was the talk at the FDR Library and was asked why India and Pakistan cannot do such a peace deal.

IDF was stumped and answered that its not easy and it is connected with Pakistan’s Army  with China nowAfghansistan. Eyebrows were raised so IDF had to explain.

 Leaders with strategy can do wonders,  even if peace  be for the short term,  but wonders happen only after a strategy is devised and followed to the hilt. Businesses live by strategy. India is still groping  for a strategy to deal with Pakistan as many and even Rand predict Pakistan  will fail by 2025, the way it is going.  India feels it can  wear Pakistan  down. Time means little in India.

This is also wishful thinking and IDF has to meet  one who can predict more that 5 years and  China is an elephant in Pakistan’s room, that India has done a peace deal with on the borders. This gives respite to CPEC on the border is the Chinese view. Continue reading

LETTER FROM AMERICA-WHO ASK IS IF USA/QUAD WITH FRANCE & UK ARE BELLWETHERS FOR INDIA’S CLOSE RELATIONS & EFFECT ON PAKISTAN IRAN & RUSSIA WITH CHINA THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM ? IDF SAYS ONLY MAY 2019 WILL TELL !

Ranjit B Rai 

This post must begin with Henry Kissinger’s quote, “India and USA will have  relations like a married couple, who can neither divorce nor get along,”  and IDF adds,  but do have  to bed each other  from time to time.  Even the brilliant strategist Brzezinski from Columbia University agreed when he heard the slogan GARIBI HATAO but no strategy by Congress which made Indians poor. 

US AID , PL-480 Title 1/2/3 in the 1960s and in the 80s for BEMARU states and for edible oil were co-operative but the relations soured over 1988 Shakti atomic tests. But INDIA’S help to USA IN THE  Gulf War and in the war on terror  when Indian Navy patrolled for USA in the Straits of Malacca in Operation Sagittarius  USA and India cuddled up and sanctions were lifted after Shakti. Remember ? Now with rise of China both need each other. USA to manage its power the East and India for investments and weapons  and hand holding against China till India is militarily and economically strong. 

IDF has  used the above  quote  often. Currently India and USA are in the same bed but  this time,  as a distant married couple11,000 miles apart for years.   Internet makes them neighbours.  Continue reading

USA HAS “JAALIED” INDIA IN TO THE INDO PACIFIC QUAD TO CONTAIN CHINA & SANCTIONED INDIA’S FRIENDS– IRAN & RUSSIA—SO PM MODI’S GAVE A SERMON AT SHANGRI LA ‘FOR DIVINITY PEACE COOPERATION & DIALOGUE—–SAMVAAD WITH CHINA ’

Ranjit B Rai

Prime Minister Modi has trained with the secretive Hindu  RSS over decades as a communicator, and graduated in distant studies.  Very little is known of his private life but he enjoys delivering sermons and knows he is a great orator. Difficult to know where he comes from,  as he sold tea and rose ! He works with no holidays and has no family living with him.

PM Modi  was in Singapore on a three day visit from 31st May after eking out a maritime base in Sabang in Indonesia from President Joko Widodo and meeting PM Mahatir in Malaysia, all for close maritime  co-operation as the net security provider(NSP) in the IOR, which  irks China, and Indonesia has reservations.

The are no NSP  rules  and Navy rejected Sri Lanka’s Code of Conduct (COC)  for IOR as China sponsored, though five IOR nations supported COC on the ASEAN  Model for co-operation. PM Modi lauded ASEAN in Singapore and asked all to emulate, so why not COC ?  Continue reading