10TH JULY 2017 EX MALABAR WITH 15 NAVAL COMBATANTS AND 120 AIRCRAFT & HELICOPTERS WITH INTEROPERABILITY IS A SHOW OF SOLIDARITY TOWARDS CHINA WHEN PLA(ARMY) AND INDIAN ARMY UNITS ARE LOCKED IN EYE BALLS IN DOKLAM WITH REVERSED RIFLES FOR THE TIME BEING

This is an IDF Analysis of the importance of the most advanced naval exercise for the Indian Navy — Malabar 2017 and what is its aim, and how much it achieves for the security of democratic nations to show power and deterrence as no one wants war. But when rising power challenges the risen power surprises do arise in some form.

History rhymes always in some new Avatar. Panditji a world statesman never anticipated 1962 or Shastri 1965 or Vajpayee Kargil a half war USA helped resolve and Pakistan suffered and did not mind. British never expected Hitler’s actions and IDF recommends latest Churchill movie when Gen Eisenhower takes on PM Churchill. Jis ke Lathi uski Bhains explained later.

Malabar is an area on the West Coast of India from the Makran coast that India shares with Pakistan in dispute for the true border and the sea boundary till India’s Southern tip. This is where Ex Malabar with US Navy began in 1992 with the Gen Kicklighter’s visit and Indian Navy which has US trained Chiefs goaded the move and IAF and Army followed and MEA had no option but get closer to USA as DRDO did.

IDF can prove as in many instances maritime action which is an ancient form of globalization and International Law leads to changed external relations and laws that Navy understand best as there are no roads at sea but Rules of the Road are a must for mariners. There was a break in 1998 in Malabars when India exploded its Shakti bombs and it re-started when the Indian Navy escorted US ships in the Malacca Straits after 9/11 in Op Sagittarius despite Malaysia’s ire that India was violating UNCLOS 1982 Clause of Innocent Passage of repeating passages, not doing steady transit and continuous course in Malaysia’s territorial waters.

Malaysia knew in International Relations power is the key which can disregard laws with excuses and in Hindi they say …Jis ke Lathi Us Ki Bhais. The one with the stick owns the Baffalo as Cow is sacred in India. Today China does just that in the South China Sea disregarding UNCLOS 1982 and ruling for Philippines by IJC. There were helpless agitated statements by some ASEAN delegates at the excellent and generous 9th Asean India Delhi Dialogue 4-5th Jul at Taj as the Chair allowed SCS to hog two sessions. ASEAN is divided by China’s Lathi (Stick) and unless USA takes on China all are helpless and India can make Joint Strategic Statements till India’s Navy power rises to operate in that area. The 22 Guardian drones Navy is acquiring can keep track but action without US Navy will be fool hardy to show China as China’s navy is in the Bay to track Malabar and UNCLOS 1982 allows it, sans close quarter collision situations.

IDF has an inkling that China will re-open the SCS when Taiwan agrees to say they are an interested party jointly with China for ITLOS to examine Ibu Ata (Taiping) island as an island not a rock as it is the biggest with an air strip and Coast Guard and de-salination plant. The ruling was weak on Ibu Ata but that would mean Taiwan which has the SCS maps accepts one China policy. So it is a Catch 22 for Taiwan and President Trump is beefing it up ! China has patience and when Deng was asked a relevant question said it is too early to tell !

Post 26/11 US lifted the sanctions on India and agreed to bigger Malabars and in 2006 it became a QUAD with Japan Australia and Singapore and moved East as India looked East then acted East and Eastern Naval Command became big and capable like IFR 2016 showed. It had the élan and care of Adms RK Dhowan and Soni ex NWC USA and it was world class and show of ability of the Navy when a State Government under Chandrababu Naidu co-operates the public do more.

Today Indian Navy and US Navy are more connected and in the dim purple lights in action stations in the Operation Rooms of Indian Navy and US Navy where SEA RIDERS are exchanged with CENTRIX in Malabar for safety and co-ordination one cannot make out who is Indian and who is American ! The orders and language is same. Some say we are in bedded !

The world is more and more in a struggle between the Risen Super Power USA under a temperamental President Trump and rising power China under ambitious Xi Jinping who has promised his people the Chinese dream and worries India under a dictatorial leader PM Modi with Hindutva dreams is driving India as never before and may spoil the party. A standoff is on in Doklam on the border.
Fifteen Naval units from India, Japan and the United States with 4000 personnel alone on 43,000 ton INS Vikramadity aircraft carrier with Mig 29Ks and 107,000 ton nuclear powered USN Nitimz and Japan’s Helicopter carrier are in the Bay and possibly some touching Vizag to participate in Malabar 2017, a joint mid-summer exercise aimed at addressing shared threats to maritime security in the India-Asia Pacific region.

Indian and Japanese navy participating in a joint exercise. PTI
The exercise involving naval ships, aircraft and personnel from the three countries will feature in both ashore and at-sea training off India’s eastern coast in the Bay of Bengal, a statement from US embassy said on Thursday and will focus on high-end war-fighting skill sets, combined carrier strike group operations, surface and anti-submarine warfare, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD), helicopter operations, and visit board search and seizure (VBSS) operations, it said.

The exercise would also include medical operations, maritime patrol and reconnaissance operations, damage control exercises and subject matter expert and professional exchanges.
Malabar 2017 is the latest in a continuing series of exercises that has grown in scope and complexity over the years, the US embassy said.

“Indian, Japanese and US maritime forces look forward to working together again to build upon and advance their working relationship to collectively provide security and stability in the Indo-Asia Pacific region,” the embassy said.

“Each iteration of this exercise helps to increase the level of understanding between our sailors and interoperability between our three navies,” it added. SHAN NO VARUNA

PART 3 MAX HASTINGS CALLS UK’S QUEEN ELIZABETH AN EMBARRASSMENT – USN’s FORD’S F-35B & EMALS POSE PROBLEMS — IDF EXPLAINS INDIA WILL BE BETTER SERVED WITH 22 GUARDIAN DRONES TO SCOUR IOR MALACCA & SCS IN WAR AND PEACE

This is Part 3 IDF analysis in defence of Part 1 and 2 earlier on India’s aircraft carrier plans. The capabilities of the 22 Sea Guardian Drones/UAVs will be in next posting.

The two earlier posts were more to delay the order for India’s third 65,000 ton aircraft carrier media calls Vishal to get more ships and submarines and Helicopters ( Sikorsky surprisingly canceled) called ‘Long Grey Line of Ships’, and direly needed naval infrastructure and not rule a third carrier in the long run when naval budget is adequate. Delhi dialogue conversations confirmed this.

This is also for healthier Naval Capital and Revenue Budgets to see approved ships get built and are listed below. An aircraft eats the revenue budget and absorbs best man power. An army fights well on its stomach and Navies are as efficient as their infrastructure support and India needs to build Naval infrastructure a young Lt Cdr will explain better ! He berths three ships to four along side each other in the just two big legacy Dockyards. It led to an explosion in a round about way in Mumbai next to Taj.

See list below and IDF will leave ACNS(Plans) to juggle and order all below by 2019. Andaman needs to be beefed up too and Naval aircraft fly from there as Navy is the insurance against China’s Navy.

MAJOR BUDGET (REALISTIC APPX COSTS) – MAJOR NAVY PLANS 2016-22 FOR WAR SHIPS
COMMITTED BY MOD IN CRORES BALL PARK WITH
ESCALATION TOTALS ARE APPX RS 144.000 cr
Small craft VARSHA &
1 Karwar Phase 11 & ELF
2 Station Rs 10,000
3 Type 15 B (MSDL) Rs 18,000
7 Type 17 A (MSDL 4 GRSE 3) Rs 30,000
6 Scorpenes (MSDL 6 ) Rs 36,000
1 Aircraft Carrier (Vikrant CSL) Rs 18,000
Aircraft and Helicopters
2 Type 28 ASW Corvettes Balance Rs 2,500
8 LCUs (GRSE) ETC Rs 3,000
5 SURVEY CATAMARANS and
TRAINING SHIP Suspended
(Alcock Ashdown & ABG)
 2 SSBN at SBC (V) Rs 20,000
16 Helicopters 6 FAC and yard craft Midgets
2 DSRV (Fisher # 292 mill) Rs 1200
Need Platforms for them

 Could continue FUNDING from PMO All Weapons DRDO COSTS Included
Notes : The Phase II
Karwar Base and Dockyard Expansion and Varsha Submarine base at Rambelle South of Vishakapatnam will Cost Rs. 12,000cr and another Naval Academy is a must. Coast Guard budget will also rise.

SHIPS APPROVED BY DEFENCE ACQUASITION COUNCIL (DAC)
1. 6 SSN Submarines Rs 30,000
2. 6 Project 75 India Submarines Rs 36,000
3. 4 LPDs with helicopters Rs 20,000
4. 65,000 ton Aircraft Carrier Vishal Rs 30,000
5. 8 MCMV (Kangnam) Rs 30,000
6. 4 TANKERS (HSL-Hyuandai) Rs 8,000
Future Needs (& 142000 CR Bill) Rs1 42,000

IDF’s proposal was criticized more by IAF who will have to reduce 2 Squadrons to 40 which IDF anticipated ($ 8 bill), so Max Hastings comments in UK on $ 6 Bill Queen Elizabeth is posted as he calls Queen Elizabeth an embarrassment and he recommends scrapping of the second the Prince of Wales. Too harsh and too late.

His comment has led PM Theresa May to sanction 3 Type 26 frigates and shows the power of media to influence. If it is a good or logical STEP, the decision it is welcomed. If not, letters to the Editor will ridicule a bad suggestion as IAF does IDF.

This posting is the third in sequel on aircraft carriers which are peace time power projectors, but are also definitely risky and expensive non cost effective platforms for employment in war near the enemy as the risks are grave. U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) (Ike) arrived in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on June 28, to celebrate Canada’s 150th anniversary. Is it cost effective IDF asks ? It’s a show of power.

Aircraft carriers and the screening ships become juicy targets in war in the 21st century for submarines, ships and planes to attack from sea platforms or land. Today weapons are long range homing ‘one shot capability missiles and torpedoes’ from ships, submarines and air platforms and are directed by space GPS and satellite commands. Hence China has an anti-axis strategy for USA’s eleven aircraft carriers and plans more submarines and only three carriers and Liaoning is called the training carrier. Shandong is on trials and will be based in south China Sea Command.

If this premise is accepted then in defence of IDF’s suggestion that India needs only two aircraft carriers for the time being, the $ 6 bill and effort of the shipbuilder can be better utilized.

It also needs noting the Russians fired KALIBAR Missiles from 1000 km away to targets in Syria from newer Krivacks called Gregorovich class warships with pin point accuracy to destroy camps near the airport. It angered USA last month. USA could do nothing except set up an aerial attack themselves on Assad’s forces in Syria claiming President Assad was using gas for attacks.

This long range missile action can be achieved too against large aircraft carriers which are big targets as the weapons are now called one shot killers. Trump worries about North Korea.

Many feathers got ruffled when IDF stated two carriers for the time being are sufficient for Indian Navy as Indian Navy’s acquisition of and operation of armed UAVs/ DRONES is on the cards after mastering THE OPERATIONS OF SEARCHER AND HERONS AND THE 22 SEA GUARDIANS it is acquiring .

Few realised that carriers in the 21st Century in war will be $ 10 bill sitting ducks with a full screen of ships around it as studied in Oxford in the Future of War. Hence India’s Navy is acquiring 22 SEA GUARDIAN UAVs (Equivalent of Predators which are armed) called Drones from General Atomics USA for $ 1.8 bill. which can fly from small airfields at 40,000 ft and may be controlled from Indian Maritime Analysis Centre (IMAC) in Gurgaon and other stations when there is connectivity and even USA’S bases which have connectivity and get the same picture if India allows. This is where BECA space co-operation like LEMOA kicks in.

The Indian Navy was one of the few navies in the world that fitted UAV control cabins on INS Vindhyagiri and Taragiri ( de commissioned since) and had connectivity from Orbit Technologies Israel supplied antenna to control and get pictures from Searcher and Heron in exercises flying from shore and coming over head 300 km away and for targeting long range missiles. Since India has become a member MTCR the range of the BrahMos and other missiles K4 and K 15 under water from Arihant’s successors can be increased. Armed UAVs/Drones are the future.

The sales of Sea Guardians was helped by the same US Indian American Mr Lal who steered Boeing’s sales of 10 C-17s plus one more ordered, 12 P8Is, 22 Apaches AND 16 Chinooks and now more Apaches for the Army. Sea Guardians can fly at 40,000 ft for over 30 hours from small airfields like U2 did from Charbatia and Peshawar in the 1960s and IAF knows the base for Bombardiers and Gilf Streams now.

As this post ends the Chumbi Valley stand off looks like a a walk back for all before G 20 meet and PLA (Navy ) has its Type 041 Yuan-class SSK in IOR since April and had even sought berthing facilities in Colombo when PM Modi was visiting Sri Lanka in May for Vesaka ! A Type 815G intelligence-gatheringship, Haiwingxing 852 of the South Sea Fleet, was spotted in Indian Ocean late last month, and this vessel will monitor the India-US-Japan Malabar naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal from next week. . India’s P-8Is and surface warships sighted Luyang III class destroyers, hydrographic research vessels and fleet replenishment tankers. The presence of a Type 041 Yuan-class SSK was also established by thesighting of Type 925 Chongmingdao 32 a submarine support vessel after an operational turnaround in Karachi since April. That is the long grey line of PLA Navy and Trident Blogspot has more details. Shan No Varuna.

THE STORY OF AIRCRAFT CARRIERS PART TWO- UK’S QE IS AN EMBARRASSMENT – GERALD FORD’S F-35B & EMALS POSE PROBLEMS — INDIA’S VIKRANT IS ESCALATING & DELAYED AT CSL – CHINA’S 2ND IS UNDERGOING TRIALS- INDIA’S 3RD IN DESIGN STAGE

IDF Analysis and it’s a ‘Told You So’ posting.

IDF recommends only two aircraft carriers and postponing order for third and cheaper development of Andaman and Nicobar islands as fixed carrier landing grounds for operations with refueling up to 2000 miles radius in support of ships, drones and submarines. India has to worry what China does so Dhoklam situation is laced in to this posting to show what can happen. Andamans need development and can be India’s employment and economic asset to wean away the wealth of the East. Today it is closed for Indians or FDI investment few undertstand so like in Himachal and Kashmir lots is BENAMI that PM Modi is after.

The A & N can become a threat in being with Indian Naval Air Power with few of the 12 P8i and a Embraer AEW and SU-30 MKIs out of the 272 of the IAF based there , in a Land Air Sea Battle strategy with the new ‘Gung Ho Army’ better armed under BJP PM Modi’s muscular government which will not tolerate pandering. Indian Navy is waiting for the 4 LPD order as Larsen & Toubro Ltd which makes nuclear submarines and OPVs etc and a new kid on the block Reliance Defence of GUJRAT with they say L1 insides. Both bite nails for the order with DCNS and NAVATIA. IDF has predictions from Paris Air Show. Then India will have Amphibious Expeditionary Forces too.

Big ‘flat-top’ aircraft carriers will be vulnerable to the new generation of anti-ship missiles, which the Chinese and Russians are manufacturing in quantity, and which even such nations as Iran and Pakistan are trying to acquire, and to launch from submarines and Pakistan did one test.

It needs noting a carrier will need screening and be vulnerable if it heads out of Malacca Straits even if it operates with a US Task Force in action. US Navy wants Indian Navy to join South China Seas patrols. Indian Navy does well by 17 SIMBEXes with Singapore Navy and operates in the South China and has been given freedom of Navigation for White (Merchant) Shipping. No objection has been raised for Indian warships on Innocent Passage as per UNCLOS 1982 to Ex Malabar in Japan Seas or RIMPAC passing through South China Sea. Its USN that China tests.
It also needs noting the Prime Minister of Singapore India’s closest Strategic Defence Partner was not invited to the Border and Road Initiative (BRI) Conference to Beijing and India abstained with objections to CPEC as joining India feels would have lost sovereignty it claims.

China raised the bar and objections and some analysts say the Dhoklam (Chinese Dhok La) plateau stand off is a result of the snub and Dalia Lama’s visit to Tawang where Indian Army is strong. If the Dhok LA map is to be analysed and U tube watched and if its true, tough Indian soldiers have grabbed and gripped smaller Chinese soldiers, asking them to go back. The geography allows a trap in to the V shaped area with Bhutan co-operating. All books say Chumbi Valley Tri-junction will be a challenge to settle for a correct and fair border. The end will show who’s will is stronger as its far from Beijing.

So india must look to other services too and when India’s economy is on the upswing the third carrier can be ordered. IDF does not rule out that. But IDF does not want a multi-billion-pound hole in india’s defence budget and just cannot understand why 12 Multi Role Helicopters RFP of $ 700 mill was canceled for the new P 17/15 AB ships as reports came in at Paris Air Show and some media said the aging Sea Kings and KA-28s will be upgraded and PM Modi is going to Israel and defence deals are on the cards media reports.

As Chinese say may you live in interesting times.

LESSONS FROM QUEEN ELEZABETH THAT INDIAN NAVY HAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY TILL JUNE 2017 FOR PLANNING INDIA’S 65,000 TON VISHAL

In 2002 First Sea Lord, now Admiral Lord West of Spithead, who went on to become a Labour Minister, urged that, if Britain was to be a modern sea power, ‘a worthy ally of the U.S’, Royal Navy needed giant platforms to carry the American F-35 fighter then under development.

UK’s cheaper aircraft carrier programme with France was a joint and cheaper project, but UK firms lobbied and convinced the Government they would lose jobs and manufacturing. UK went alone as CNS Lord West wanted to please USA, the lynchpin for UK’s Trident nuclear submarine programme. Gordon Brown became Labour prime minister and he wanted jobs in Scotland.

As explained in Part 1 many in the Royal Navy and in UK are regretting the decision as there are less ship and submarine commands and platforms for deployment and more Admirals. The cost has crippled the Defence Budget as inflation is a fact of life and Brexit has come as a surprise. At the outset the new carriers reflected delusions of grandeur, and the F-35s looked like becoming much too pricey for Britain’s status as a medium-sized nation and now it’s been called an embarrassment as only 12 F-35s have been ordered at a huge cost.

F-35 is the follower replacement of F-16s so President has offered one full assembly line to India which looks a like Rs 1 offer but make the planes for India like Russia gave India Gorshkov free if we bought two nuclear submarines and Maritime TU-95’s which was Brijesh Misra’s plan as a nuclear bomber. IAF shot down the TU-95 as they had seen in Iraq and Navy could take only one Nerpa (Chakra). These are lessons on aid and defence planning with Strategy.

PART THREE WILL DISCUSS USS GERALD FORD VIKRANT AND CHINA’S SHANDONG CARRIER AND FUTURE PLANS SO LESSONS CAN BE LEARNT.

FUTURE OF AIRCRAFT CARRIERS—UK’S QE SETS SAIL- GERALD FORD’S F-35Bs & EMALS POSE PROBLEMS — INDIA’S VIKRANT IS ESCALATING & DELAYED AT CSL – CHINA’S 2ND IS UNDERGOING TRIALS— HENCE INDIA SHOULD DEBATE THE FUTURE OF HOW MANY CARRIERS INDIA CAN AFFORD TODAY ? TWO OR THREE ?

This is a need based IDF Analysis on Aircraft Carriers of UK, China and USA inter linked with India’s in two parts. Russia is unsure of building a carrier. Japan is building helicopter carriers only. This is Part 1.

IDF is convinced only nations that are rich should build carriers. They are sitting targets and not for war per se, as they need escorts, but essential more for power projection and HADR and evacuations and emergencies. India under PM Modi is for power projection but how many is the question for that in today’s environment ?

The subject is of importance for Defence Spenders as a modern carrier requires twin engine fighters. Navy has issued such an RFI for its 65,000 ton third carrier media (VISHAL) which will cost over $ 5 Bill (Rs 32,000 cr) with MR and helicopter complement. Can MOD afford the money for a 3rd Carrier ? Running costs are huge or will the 126 Fighter story repeat as only just 36 were ordered in Jugad.

HMS Queen Elizabeth is the largest warship ever built for the Royal Navy. It sailed out from the Firth of Forth at Rosyth in Scotland for sea trials and BBC TV covered it with pride. But the discussions that followed in media along with BREXIT and a slowing economy unearthed a lot of heat and anger.

Max Hastings Britain’s leading Naval Correspondent wrote scathing headlines in two National papers —-PRIDE OF BRITAIN? NO, HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH IS A £6BN BLUNDER THAT SHOULD BE SCUTTLED. He sarcastically called it a ‘glorious photo opportunity’ and a 21st-century ‘castle of steel’ to strike terror into the nation’s enemies. Three Indian Naval Admirals’ had just visited UK and visited Scotland earlier this month. Air Marshal Harjit Singh Arora Director General (Inspection and Safety) was spotted at Paris Air Show on 19th June as the lone uniformed Indian from India. Only HAL and MKU India’s largest exporter and two small exporters looking for aviation business and Indigo were at the show. Anil Ambani hoping to help Dasault and CEO Reliance Defence were there, with large Indian media looking for advertisements. There was an F-35 B carrier plane at the show which is still to be allowed aerobatics.

Hastings called Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales, giant embarrassments and added they are symbols of almost everything that is wrong with British defence policy. IDF thought of India’s Defence Policy when Hastings wrote “How much smarter it would have been to build a couple of cheap ’n’ cheerful naval platforms from which to launch drones and low-tech aircraft. For that, one could almost have welded steel plates on top of tanker hulls, to create acceptable flight decks”. India is buying 22 Guardian drones and next lot will be armed. INS Vindhyagiri and Taragiri have operated UAV’s at sea.

IDF said this very thing at a seminar at Cochin while presenting Naval Architects DGND Padmanaban and Dhumal’s GOAL POST CARRIER in the early 80s as the DNO. They had proposed two such flat decks be built at Cochin Shipyard Ltd which had built Tankers. CSL was under a Naval Admiral and was to refit INS Vikrant for Sea Harriers that India was buying.

Sea Harriers had landed on Container ships in the Falklands war in what we Indians call, Jugad. The Navy was acquiring Sea Harriers and HMS Hermes (VIRAAT) very cheap. The Aviation Admirals and the Grey Eagle, the senior most emotional aviator seemed very annoyed and asked, “Who vetted this Guy’s paper, he surface guy anti aviation”.

The Andaman and Nicobars in the East and Lakshadweep islands in the West can cheaply be developed and be made into great fixed aircraft carriers but Navy must man the naval air stations and fly the planes over the sea and seek friendly nations for bases in war. And with aerial re-fuelling. This will be cheaper and the IAF can reduce its fighter squadron target from 42 for defence of the seas in the East where threat is mainly from China.

IDF SUGGESTS two carriers, for one to be operational all the time, more nuclear and conventional submarines and ships may serve better to keep China guessing and blocked if needed. If Andamans are developed and sea bed sonars are established as Japan and USA have jointly suggested, in the 8 Degree Channel aka Cold Submarine War of yore in the Atlantic. Then China’s PLA(N) sneaking submarines will be tracked.

Currently the Indian Air Force will never allow this modus operandi but its needs debate in Think Tanks with no emotion as Inter Service co-operation is poor. PM Modi talks of jointness but has done little in three years like he has done in other sectors. The subject needs his, NSA and PMO’S wise thinking.

The wise Chiefs are Gung Ho and do have meetings to write papers on jointness, but no Chief anywhere in the world likes to lose his turf in his time.

A PERSONAL VIEW FROM THE EUROPE AND UK

IDF was lucky to be in Italy , Germany , France and then London and Cambridge and researchers and spoke at two think tank tanks and released the Future Indian Navy and sought ideas for 2018 edition and looked for a publisher for another. India and Indian Navy is the flavor of the times.

In London IDF interacted with a well known British born Indian Researcher ( Ex Cambridge and Harvard ), a leading TV Commentator on South Asian and Middle Eastern Affairs and others including a Pakistani and some Royal Navy retired friends who IDF did the Staff Course with in Greenwich. It is said you can take the man out of the Sea, but not the Sea or Salt out of his veins.

The high point of entertainment in British and foreign Military circles that IDF learnt earlier, is the bills for meals and drinks are equally shared. Nothing is wasted , so people invite each other out , not fearing the cost. In the Indian Navy too, each Wardroom has a ‘no treating rule’ but no one follows it. How dare you offer and ask a senior to pay !

In Greenwich on Staff Course IDF spotted Prince Charles doing Junior War Course at the Wardroom Bar and asked him his drink. Very friendly and informal, he replied A Pint of Indian Pale Ale (I had never heard of), and jokingly in his style said, “Since I am with an Indian” and added its Royal 1.

I did not understand and thought Lt Charles was being pompous. I signed both drinks on to my account in to my No 18. Few weeks later Prince Charles came up to me and said Commander ( I was Lt Cdr) may I offer you a drink and I said, “ Your Highness, Gin and Tonic”, and he asked, your number Sir. 18 I said, and noted he signed on my behalf and think of him always when people scrounge on IDF and wonder who pays for those bills of Ministers and Seniors and PM’s luxuries.

England is small today and with a slowing economy as it came out in discussions in UK, but the Royal Navy’s new pride and symbolic 65,000 ton aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth on 24th June is being debated in Pros and cons, and proved thought provoking.

Indians to debate the future for the nation’s defence spending and Indian Navy’s carrier plans. RM Jaitley, who is goaled by PM Modi to be his Defence Minister in addition to being the Finance Minister and controls India’s economy and defence budgets must see this posting and ponder. PM Modi and Amit Shah do not believe in consensus decision making or seeking advice as both are bright Indians and as RSS are proud Hindus and propagate Hindutva but carrier issues need debate.

Today fighter planes are expensive and a squadron of 18 Rafales India is buying from France off the shelf, costs $ 4.2 Bill without all weapons that DRDO will hopefully fit some. Britain had planned to put 36 F-35s on each carrier but the stupendous cost has made PM Therasa May cut it it to 12, for the time being. Planning money has been given for 3rd carrier and order needs to wait.

INDIA BOYCOTTS CHINA’S BARF CITING ILLEGALITY OF CPEC ON INDIAN SOIL & RIGHTLY SUSPECTS CHINA’S 36 DAO STRATEGEMS TO CONNECT CHINA TO NEIGHBOURS & AND SURROUND INDIA —– DOES INDIA’S STRATEGY HINGE ON PARAELL JAPAN INDIA BELT ?

This is an IDF Analysis sparked by the growth of economies of China, Japan and India as gravity has tilted East in the 21st century. The Indian Ocean Region’s (IOR) sea lanes and land connectivity for trade and energy have assumed strategic importance and the two day Belt & Road Forum (BARF) from 14th May grandstanded by Xi Jinping with 30 heads of state in Beijing was boycotted by India as CPEC is on Indian soil & Pakistan’s terror plagues India. So India announced a Japan India Belt (JPR) as a parallel as China leans on its 36 stratagems to rise and surround India.

India will have to have a strategy with to meet the stratagems. Cold War 2.0 has begun and winners go to any length to win without war or firing shots…Sun Tzu.

11 SELECTED STRATEGEMS WRITTEN IN BC

1 瞒天过海 Deceive the heavens to cross the Ocean- (CHINA’S IOR POLICY & STRATEGY CALLED THIRD ISLAND CHAIN BY DENG with WEIQI).

3 借刀杀人 Kill (INDIA) with a borrowed knife ( FROM PAKISTAN)…… India may try to borrow Japan and USA’s knife.

5 趁火打劫 Loot a burning house (SOUTH ASIAN POVERTY AND SAARC FAILURE & INDIA-PAKISTAN ENMITY)……… Pakistan is playing with fire to support China.

6 声东击西 Make a sound in the East ( BARF IS NEW MARSHALL PLAN ) then strike in the West ( AFGHANISTAN & SOUTH ASIA & MIDDLE EAST)

7 无中生有 Create something (ECONOMY) from nothing (INFRASTRUCTURE)……… India needs PPP of Government & Private Parties and funding to beat BARF in the neighbourhood with investments as alternates.

8 暗渡陈仓 Openly repair the gallery roads (PAKISTAN), but sneak through the passage to (INDIA IN IOK (pok) ).

9笑里藏刀 Hide a dagger behind a smile (CHINESE LEADERS SMILE BEHIND THEIR GO GAMES).

22 关⻔捉贼 Shut the door to catch the thief ( SURROUND INDIA)

28 上屋抽梯 Remove the ladder, when the enemy has ascended the roof (CPEC SUCCESS WITH PAKISTAN’S BONDAGE )

35 连环计 The stratagem of chaining ( BURDEN SRI LANKA AND PAKISTAN WITH DEBTS)

36 走为上 If everything else fails, retreat ( LIKE CHINA RESCINDED OFFER TO ADD INDIA IN TO CPEC). To make China retreat should be India’s aim.

The world runs on economic and military power of nations. Economic power comes from trade, manufacturing and now services which includes space and cyber, which requires long term strategies and policies for trade to thrive. Nations need technology which is galloping. Cyber can disrupt and is a tool in the strategy.

India’s BJP government must devise a strategy to stub the China Pakistan nexus. The Government has de-oxygenated the Valley and trying to instill pride in the population to be Indian, and flush out the terrorists and de-hole the separatists with Indian Army’s help. It must succeed.

ON TRADE AND MANUFATURING slogans like MAKE IN INDIA to export sound right, but India needs strategic partners from the West and Japan and accept any ‘coloured cat that can kill rats’. So the question is, can the BJP ruling India with RSS backing and advice, deliver the way it has in the last three years in the long term, to thwart China and tame Pakistan. India will need FDI , Technology and Reforms. (AKA 1991).

India’s economy has zoomed especially in the Stock Market. When industrialists state they are stagnating and not making profits, IDF’s research shows that MILLIONS of small companies, new entrepreneurs, inventors, start ups and such small companies have worked hard all over India and recorded turn over of 100s of crores and huge profits. MIDCAPS and honest companies have been nimble and need partnerships to expand.

The new rags to riches population own BMWs, Mercedes Residences, Travel and Consume. They are part of INDIA’S CONSUMPTION & CREDIT ECONOMY as salaries have gone up. But jobs, training and education are not keeping pace and Kashmir Valley saw 67,000 youth lined up for 700 Police jobs.

It needs noting PM Lee Kuan Yew advised that religion and politics must not be mixed in a multi cultural population and deserves debate where 20 % of the population is Muslim, Christian and Buddhists with 80 % Hindus. ISLAM has its own ambitions. BARF was held in that back drop and 30 countries supported China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted BARF what started in 2013 as Border Road Initiative (BRI) under the aegis of China’s top economic think tank the National Development Reform Commission’s (NDRC), as a massive exercise in diplomatic communication, connectivity and trade. EU nations attended BARF individually but EU did not fully endorse it to please Xi JINPING and to keep him guessing. China did not lose face, India’s absence was noted.

China has made inroads in to the IOR Island states with its ‘Weiqi’ strategy to safeguard and further its interests with realpolitik of ‘String of Pearls’ based on China’s board game WEIQI to surround. It is the same strategic board game called GO in Korea and played in Italy too. There are no fixed moves in Go, so you can play almost anywhere you want to and you’re really only limited by your own creativity unlike Chess.

BARF discussed each nation’s project with $ 124 bill giveaways by President XI Jinping who has been billed the most powerful Chinese head after Mao and Deng Xiaoping. It was the showing to revive THE OLD SILK ROAD, but also surround India with China Pakistan economic Corridor (CPEC) and String of Pearls and coral Japan. India decided to boycott it. Only few Indians attended in their own capacity, and India’s Embassy will report.

China is selling “Let Me Help You Make The Infrastructure”. IDF recalls architect Strauss who approached banks for loans for the Berkeley Bridge. Only Gionelli of Fargo Wells said. “One day the bridge ( Infrastructure) will pay back the debt, so I can loan in Francisco which already had the Golden Gate Bridge and another.

Infrastructure is paying off in South East Asia as poor infrastructure is slowing India’s faster growth.

BARF is for land bridges to South East Asia and a rail to Katmandu which got cleared and pipelines and ports which India should be building but where is the strategy ? Public Private Partnerships (PPP) is the answer and even Indian Navy has proved PPP by building nuclear submarines worth billions. HINDU reports the aircraft carrier Vikrant is highly delayed in a Ministry of Shipping PSU where over Rs 6000 crores are being spent. IDF learnt no serving or retired Naval officer is in Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL), only naval overseers. IDF is studying how nuclear submarine Arihant which is more complicated was completed by Navy-DRDO- BARC and L&T in a PPP. Much is classified but needs telling to educate and show India’s PPPs and strategic partnerships can deliver and there is capacity.

PM Narendra Modi has stifled black money in infrastructure with DEMONET which can be a boon. Minister Gadkari spoke at INDIA TV FORUM and showed how he is leading the charge for roads with private money (PPP).

Chinese belive in strategy. Chinese worship their ancestors and heed their philosophers’ writings especially Confucius(551-479 BC) who gave them a sense of culture, Sun Tzu (512 BC) who enunciated ‘The art of war’ in 13 chapters and Lao Tzu who popularized Taoism and 36 Strategems like Machiavelli and Chankaya.

Chinese leaders have displayed a resolve to never allow that century of humiliation ( bǎinián guóchǐ) to be repeated, and today aspire to match USA, and amalgamate ROC Taiwan in to China by re- naming it .

India was subjugated, but Indians were not resentful of long years of Muslim and British rule 1500 to 1947 but have begun to have feelings of humiliation led by RSS and want to forget Mir Kasim India’s ‘Panipat syndrome’ and Mir Jafir who helped Lord Robert Clive in victory. India now needs strategy as the maritime sea waves are for India and must be taken at High Tide and PM Modi appears to be the Leader who can do it, but will need strategy like in Chess to checkmate BARF and India’s military should be ready for its task.

CHINA CHALLENGES GROTIUS’S ‘MARE LIBERUM’-(FREEDOM OF THE SEAS) WITH ‘MARE CLOSUM’ AND SCS CLAIMS— WILL WE SEE COLD WAR 2.0 BETWEEN US ALLIES & INDIA VS CHINA-RUSSIA & PAKISTAN & TRIBUTEES AT BARF 14/15TH MAY IN BEIJING ?

India has declined an invitation to join Border and Road Forum (BARF) in Beijing on 14/15th May as USA and its allies have done. Is it green shoots of Cold War 2.0 in rising power China challenging Super Power USA ?

This is an IDF analysis of China under its military and political Chairman XI Jinping and India under a confident RSS supported PM Narendra Modi who is clearly driving India higher with US support, to stand up to China and tame China’s ally Pakistan, and wrest Occupied Kashmir for India where a CPEC is being built by China.

China the hare and democratic India the tortoise have risen, Communist China has risen faster. The economic and military rise of India under PM Narendra Modi worries China, looking to topple USA as a super power with two sparring International camps in the world’s Geo-Economic and Geo-Political landscape in a new form of competition in the East.

Super power USA under autocratic President Trump rides, like an Elephant and wants to tame China and North Korea that China and Russia support. The grass may get trampled, as India Pakistan animosity has peaked especially in the troubled Kashmir valley. The PDP party in power is isolated and BJP wants Kashmiris to succumb as as India’s Army has been hurtling fire on Pakistani bunkers with success, accepting deaths of its souls as the price to pay, fo combing operations.

China’s political cum military leader Xi Jinping (wife Maj General Peng Liyuan) invited Indian and world leaders and delegates to BARF from 14th May to sell successes to nations to join the revived Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and One Belt One Road ( OBOR) with a war chest of billions. China has invited Afghanistan and Nepal who has agreed to link in to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Ambassador Lou in Delhi offered to add India in the label later rescinded in media when snubbed, typical Chinese tactic not to lose face.

Many Indians have suggested India could gain by joining as CPEC is in part of POK( Gilgit Baltistan) which will accrue to India in the long term as PM Modi said on 15th Aug at the Red Fort, and Rand Corporation predicts but Pakistan is bent on playing with fire.

When India’s FS Jaishankar confirmed India would not attend BARF Beijing asked to berth a submarine in Sri Lanka. Was it to embarrass PM Modi who was the Chief guest for UN Vesak day on 12TH May as part of PM’s dynamic ‘Neighborhood First Policy’ to surround Pakistan. Sri Lanka declined PLA(N) submarine but the message was a PLA (N) submarine is lurking in the Indian Ocean. The IN and USN must be tracking.

IDF emphasizes Chinese and Indians are like chalk and cheese in physical make up (yellow vs brown, tall vs short, slit eyes vs round eyes), food habits, cultural and religious ways or the way the two look at ‘strategy’.

Chinese look at ‘GO’ a long term strategic board game to surround. Indians look at Chess to check mate. Indians Ahimsa ( non-violence) is giving way to pride in Hindutva Karmic fatalistic beliefs to beat China’s Kaisu policy ( never to lose) and the Chinese faith in the teaching of masters like Sun Tzu and Lao. Chinese do not like to lose face.

Indians lean on legal arguments when confronted . After years of not going to International courts, it is on test in the ICJ at Hague on 15th May Advocate Salve will prove ex Cdr Jadhav in Pakistan custody is a businessman who was abducted in Iran and not a spy. Pakistan may boycott ICJ just as Singapore stumped lawyer Palkhiwala’s argument when PM Lee Kuan Yew warned he would cane over staying Indians in the 1990s. Singapore Court ruled Singapore has the right to make its laws despite Vienna and other conventions. China boycotted UNCLOS ITLOS hearings on South China Sea in 2015 with game plans.

At BARF China will highlight successes in Greece’s Piraeus port and how it helped Greece to economic health and will support Middle East with pipelines (aka CPEC). A container train from London to Yiwu in China succeeded for connectivity as in Asia, with power projects and pipelines. China has now offered Nuclear power plants to Indonesia.

It is evident USA JAPAN INDIA SINGAPORE and allies like Australia in the Pivot have taken on CHINA RUSSIA PAKISTAN & its friends and allies who pay tribute to China just like in the Cold War days USA and SOVIET UNION received from two camps.

USA’S President Trump has warned Pakistan for creating ‘India Pakistan tension’ and supporting Taliban which is gaining grounds in Afghanistan and taken Kunduz. This manifestation will come alive at the Border BARF as the US camp has ganged up and shunned the invitation. China will lean on Sun Tzu to break the ganging as it did to the ASEAN Code of Conduct.

The same grouping is aligned lined in the affairs of Afghanistan and Middle East especially Syria and Yemen where Saudi Arabia finds itself in a dilemma and supports Pakistan in Sunni vs Shia, and Pakistan’s Gen Raheel Shariff advises a Sunni army for Saudis. President Trump is going to visit Mid East to personally meet leaders and be at G7 at Taormina , Sicily on May 26–27. Both camps are jockeying for maritime power as in Cold war in the 21st Century in the East.

China’s String of Pearls was scoffed at by India’s strategists when IDF wrote about the Chinese stratagem of board game ‘Go’ to surround India. Its extended to MSR , OBOR and CPEC reflected in the philosophy in Sun Tzu’s classical ‘Shi’–sovereignty. Jinping has added modernity, Chinese International banks and Remembi for stability. Indian leaders of RSS detest Western ways.

China had Deng Xiaoping who led China in the 1970-80s and “Set The Template For China’s Rise”, and can be compared to PM Narendra Modi who had led India only for three years and India has risen. Deng survived the deprivations of Mao’s Long March and had vowed that the ‘100 years of Humiliation’ that China had seen with Britain’s’ Opium war and Western domination will never repeat and cautioned his people to ‘Bide your Time’. Deng felt China must change the rules set by USA for the world. PM Modi plans to move faster on Indian rules with USA’s support.

Magna Carta, was the greatest historical declarations which compelled King John to accede to the demands for civil and religious liberty. Dutchman Hugo Grotius (1583- 1658) was admitted to the bar aged 16 and he scripted  “Mare Librum,” in which he defended the freedom of the sea and the maritime rights of his country against the arrogant Portuguese and British maritime power in suppressing the commerce of other nations in European waters.
China has taken a opposite tack to stop religious and political liberties but allowed Chinese to become rich. China has forced  “Mare Clausum,”  like Malaysia has announced for the Malacca Straits to close seas, and China looks to Lao and Machiavelli’s ideal biographies to rise and today’s leaders including PM Modi seem to be following these too with shades of Chankaya the Chatur and Hindutva.

The US has challenged Malaysia’s restriction on military manoeuvres with weapons in its EEZ and requirement of prior notification for passage of nuclear-powered vessels in its territorial sea as unlawful, contravening customary international law.

Xi Jinping claims the South China Seas and could use its trump card of the largest island Taiping (Itu Aba) which currently belongs to Taiwan and is habited with a C-130 runway and Coast Guard. China may make Taiwan a party to ITLOS-UNCLOS claim. China has changed names in Arunachal to claim, and has changed Taiwan’s name to “Zhongguo Taipei” instead of “Zhonghua”. Both look inconsequential and mean China, but Zhonghua refers to a general concept of a Chinese nation, while Zhongguo refers to the People’s Republic of China.

PM Modi is a brilliant student of politics and knows the ills of India as a Hindu Rashtra RSS Pracharak and a Hindutva believer who suffered the deprivation of RSS with its off shoots the VHP and Bajrang Dal for years as China gained. PM Modi has used the RSS and affiliates to power him to Prime Minister ship. He has worked hard, reduced corruption and data is being fed to media to inform Indians of ills, latest being Republic TV to help clean up India through social media. Indians have to support the drive to bring defaulters to book, who slowed India’s destiny to book. Has India’s time come ?

ARE USI’s STRATEGIC REVIEW & JOINT DOCTRINE- 2017 &1000 DAYS OF ‘MODI’ & 100 OF ‘POTUS’ (PRESIDENT OF USA) THE HARBINGERS OF DISRUPTIVE LEADERSHIP FOR SUCCESS-IN POK? CHINESE AMBASSADOR ASKS INDIA TO JOIN BRI

This is a ‘pot pouri’ IDF analysis of the week ending 6th May, 2017.

Indians think Delhi is the centre of the earth with the fastest growing economy and a magnet for FDI. Leaders come visiting to sell to the largest population in the world (if a census is taken). That worries China as former President Nasheed seems to convey from Maldives in the Indian Ocean and a turf war is in progress between navies.

Leaders meet PM Narendra Modi, his BJP Ministers, NSA Doval and Amit Shah who is sweeping BJP to power (like Dave Bannon for Trump) with support of the people. Many are shifting to BJP for ‘Ache Din’, but RSS and Hindutva on the fringe do get away with law in their hands, is a worry. Corruption has reduced. This is India’s time if it can grasp it. “Indians are living in interesting times’.

The week witnessed cross border firings and two mutilations ( last in Nov 2016) from Pakistan where PM Nawaz Sharrif’s position is tenuous as he tried to take on his disruptive Army. The state of law and order has deteriorated in the Kashmir Valley thanks to Pakistan’s support with stone pelting against forces and increased bank robberies. The Army is called in.

IDF has gleaned lessons from disruptive style of authoritative leaders of the world who are succeeding in India too and it is best people adjust. PM Modi and CM Adityanath styles as economy is booming ?

Trump in USA is scrapping Obama’s care, Theresa May is sending EU Brexit English lessons, Marine Le Penn wants to ditch EU but is losing in France, Putin in Syria is scaring USA and Turkey after Crimea. Xi Jinping promised Trump, China would $ 350 bill deficit in three months ( Disrupt Trade ?) but builds up China’s military and bides.

Erdogan arrested and disrupted 2000, and asked India to rein in supporters of Gullen in USA. Disruptive Kim Jong Un is brazen and has threatened USA.

Disruptive Mujahedeen Warlord Gulabudin Hekmatyar who approached India in 1988 for friendship and power, was spurned. He is back in Kabul and IDF will watch him.

PM Modi is succeeding in India too by extraditing renegades abroad, solving NPAs with an Ordnance and taming the opposition and opening old cases. It is a message that Pakistan better heed his warnings as he means what he says-DEMONET and UP elections showed it, and now GST is on its way with hundreds of development programmes and POK designs that PMO keep tracks of, if terror continues. Saffron tikka and scarf show on TV as the power.

Seminars galore and news/discussions/twitter and electronic media continue with no rules of courteous or analytical TV debates and IDF relies on the proceedings.

Talk shows, sports and current affairs are not allowed on Private Radio like in other democracies, so TV is flourishing with Advertisements to fund them and most are owned with vested interests. On Indian TV Pakistani invitees hurl expletives at each other and bray for hostilities especially after two soldiers were mutilated on Indian soil on the LOC on 2nd May and the nation wanted retribution A Joint Operational Doctrine was issued.
Army Chief Gen Bipin Rawat released the USI Strategic Yearbook 2017 on 4th May at USI with 30 contributed articles. In bytes like Vice Chief Gen Sarath Chandra, Rawat hinted that action will be taken at time and place of our choosing.

3000 Army and Police marched in to the Shopian area of the Kashmir valley the hot bed of separatists in Kashmir and Hurriyat leaders, to clear terrorists. Geelani the Hurriyat leader accused PM Modi unleashing the dance of death, and saying Kashmir was rich, but starved, replying PM Modi who rightly wants development in Kashmir and met Governor NN Vohra as PDP-BJP appear at logger heads.

On 4th May well known retired experts in the field of Economy, Foreign Policy, Politics and Academia discussed 100 days of President Trump at IHC arranged by Ambassador Surendra Kumar’S Indo-American Friendship Association (IAFA) in his imitable style of putting two questions to each speaker and a lady rang a bell after 12 minutes. He has a piece in Mail Today on 6th May praising PM Modi for his 1000 days aptly titled ‘Lets Rein in Vigilantism’ echoing IDF.

At a Conference in TOKYO Japanese Vice Minister Akiyama in the Chair stated his most difficult job was to make the Japanese delegates talk for their allotted time, and make the Indian speakers to stop talking. .

At IHC on 100 Days of Trump, JNU Prof Chintamani Mahapatra spoke of Trump as a clever politician and explained his disruptive way of leadership which businessmen follow to keep ahead. He said Trump is trying to run USA like a corporation. This reminded IDF of late PM Lee Kuan Yew. Results awaited !

Rajesh Menon Dy Director CII lamented the reduction of H1BI visas, listed the many disputes in investments and pharma and IT and Intellectual Property. Novelist Gurcharan Das said reduction of H1 B1 visas was a boon for India and spoke of his pet subject Dharma/ Mahabharat / GIta he can regale, and explained why Dave Bannon was sidelined by Trump in favour of his son in law Kushner. Gurcharan feels 30, 000 NRIs will come back and open start ups or do back office work for USA in India.

Amb Hardeep Singh BJP spoke of his work in UN and the nuclear deal and asked what have we offered Trump but did not give cogent answers that IDF got next day from the China’s Ambassador to India and Amb Meera Shankar who gave sane advice and said Trump has done nothing to change for India and we must have patience and connect with the Trump family and offer how we can help.

Young articulate Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi warned, BJP is getting in to USA’s security trap and hinted it was not good and explained how we have been sucked in to the South China Sea dispute by President Obama 2015. IDF feels this may be a price to get US technology but strategic partnership rules have not come about, so its elusive.

Trump is the impetuous leader who is shaping opinions and making statements that are not being liked by sections of USA and this was in initial days of PM Modi as 2002 riots were fresh but no more. That chapter is closed.

On 6th May HE Lou Zhaohui China’s Ambassador ( wife Wang Li is Phd from Indian University ) spent 20 minutes on historic relations and spoke at length for nearly 2 hours at USI. Chinese can wear out opponents. He confessed Indians look to tomorrow, China looks long and can help as India’s bureaucracy which cannot keep up with Leaders aspirations. He said States (PRADESHES) want to move with demands.

Amb K Sibal in the Chair said Lou was Ambassador to Pakistan and did not know if it was a good thing and raised the whole gamut of India-China Relations, which Amb Lou made clear in Q & A and not earlier, and said he contributed to the cooling of relations after 26/11 in Pakistan so he is well informed on the sub-continent and said he had traveled to Qatar too.

Amb Lou made a pitch for India to increase its GDP and Infrastructure with China’s help telling India your GDP is what China was in 2004. On NSG he said India must be included after rules were formed for nations hinting on Pakistan. On GWADAR he gave the line IDF has heard. “ Pakistan asked us to build the port and we did. Singapore ran it for 5 years and left so they asked us and now we have to do business”. But the biggest pitch was for India to join OBOR/CPEC and BRI that UN subscribes to and on 14th May Xi Jinping holds the big BRI summit in Beijing. Who will attend from India ? Or will it be disruptive ? Shan No Varuna .

the m n March 17, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on security in Afghanistan. It includes a reference to regional development initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China promptly announced that this reference (possibly inserted at its instance) reflected a global consensus on the BRI. This is part of an intensifying campaign to mobilise high-level attendance at a summit — the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) — being hosted by China in mid-May. The declared purpose is to review progress of the BRI, obtain perspectives of stakeholders and plan new trajectories of cooperation.edia who are still smarting from Trump’s route to presidency.

“IS A PERMAMENT DEFENCE MINISTER ESSENTIAL” IS ON MILITARY MINDS & WHO WILL BE APPOINTED — AN RSS RECOMMENDATION AS RRM ONCOLOGIST DR BHAMRE ? OR RM JAITLEY CONTINUE AND RESPOND TO PAKISTAN ?

This is an IDF Analysis a few days after IDF felt the need for a Permanent Defence Minister and posted  FM JAITLEY RETURNS –PARRIKAR SAYS BYE TO MOD and tried to explore how critical, demanding and full time both Finance and Defence Ministries are and ask can one person do both jobs dispassionately. Congress did it at times for motives.

Media had reported and Intelligence would have analysed the Pakistan Army Chief Gen Bajwa was visiting units on the LOC. He must have motivated his troops with religious fervor to bleed Indian Army with 1000 cuts and possibly calculated Friend Turkey’s Erdogan was visiting India. On 1st May Pakistan opened massive cover fire on a small BSF border post manned by late Army Naib Subedar Paramjeet Singh (IDF salutes).

A Pak team (BAT?) came across and mutilated Paramjeet’s body and a BSF Constable in the Krishna Ghati sector. “The irony of this situation is that, India does not have a full time Defence Minister and he does not seem serious after all that has happened in the country,” Tewari told ANI.

Army Chief must have briefed PM , Defence Minister Arun Jaitley NSA and others busy with Erdogan who suggested multi lateral action to solve J&K and offered services which were declined. Pak HC Basit was summoned to MEA.

Tewari added, “The government seems to be losing control and it is high time PM realizes the sensitivity of the situation and gets his act together. Soldiers being mutilated on the LOC, news about Kulbhushan Jadhav, Kashmir which is out of control and Sukma attack- there is no retribution or action taken on these matters yet. Does the government have an answer for this?” .

The Indian Army’s statement was, “In an unsoldierly act by the Pak Army, the bodies of two of our soldiers in the patrol were mutilated”. As expected.

Arun Jaitley is BJP’s FM and first RM for few months and a famed lawyer and a fit BJP globetrotting Minister (after surgery), and has handled and propelled economy to great heights. He is a fighter and has sued CM Kejriwal for Rs 10 Cr.

The nation is braying for action on Pakistan’s recent perfidy of mutilating two soldiers on Indian soil. Much responsibility rests on Jaitley and what he advises the Cabinet and decides with inputs from the NSA and Chiefs who now have an aggressive Joint Operational Doctrine analysed on this site.

On 2nd May RM Arun Jaitley attended the Naval Commanders’ Conference with RRM Dr Subhash Bhamre, Defence Secretary and senior MOD functionaries. Complimenting the Navy he referred to the situation on the Western Border and its linkage to the internal security, and urged to be prepared at all times as “Preparedness is the best Deterrent”.

Jaitley acknowledged the crucial requirements of the Navy and assured the Govt. is working positively and will increase the resources to make good the shortfalls soon viz. ship borne Multi Role Helicopters (MRH), conventional Submarines and Mine Counter Measure Vessels (MCMVs), all issues raised in IDF post, pending since his last tenure.

The lone sober voice IDF heard after, was Indian Army’s Vice Chief Gen Sarath Chand say we will respond at a time of our choosing, and IDF recalled what FM Sam Manekshaw told PM Mrs Gandhi in April 1971 and asked for time when she asked for action. Sam Bahadur took over as a Defacto CDS and RM Jagjivan Ram supported to give Indians the only real victory in war or off shore operation ( OP Pawan) that older Indians have lived through and mourned uniformed souls. Yet, details or Henderson Brooks report and wars, are not available to research but Pakistan should get the message is IDF’s aim. India has a capacity to teach lessons so Pakistan must hark.

BJP and all in uniform, are aware Pakistan Army uses Irregulars/Mujahedeens/ISI and Kashmiri Freedom fighters and separatists, Hizbul Mujahedeen and money to bleed India so posts what happened in the 1965 war when India and Pakistan were not nuclear capable, and in Kargil war (1999). By 1998 both nations were Nuclear capable. Their arsenals have increased and war will be catastrophic but skirmishes across the border.

Pakistan army controls the nation’s anti-India policy and uses Irregulars against India and in Afghanistan like Taliban, Al Qaeda, IS or ISI sponsored terror modules like LET JUD etc. PA has an anti India policy in its Total Defence and ISI works cleverly directs that.

The current situation in the Valley of Kashmir is delicate as in 1965, and so reproduces from the book Warring Nuclear Navies-India and Pakistan in which two chapters discuss all wars India has fought and ex COAS Gen VP Malik explains the Kargil war. But do Indians read wars or respect gallantry more than Bollywood ?

INDIA MUST RECALL THE 1965 WAR’S OP GIBRALTAR UNDER PAK MAJ GEN MALIK
QUOTE. “ In 1965 ceasefire line violations increased. Crossings of borders by civilians was a common problem but accepted feature in some areas, especially on festive occasions or weddings. On 8 August 1965, under guise of celebrating the festival of Pir Dastgir Sahib, hordes of infiltrators and Gibraltar IRREGULAR AND REGULAR forces entered Kashmir and harassed the Indian Army with a just ‘below war’ situation. With disorganisation in J&K, the Defence Secretary requested the Army to take over the state and even declare Martial Law. Army Chief Gen. J. N. Chaudhuri who was in Jalandhar, refrained from taking over. He informed the District Magistrate that the Army had enough on its plate defending the 470 mile border, than to attend to civil duties. It was a decision which militarily saved the future.

By 13 August, clashes escalated to war. Major battles were fought at Haji Pir on 28 August, in Poonch Area on 5/6 September and Kishanganga in the ensuing days, when the IAF responded. A ceasefire came into being and the second India-Pakistan war ended.

It ended in a military stalemate and it was the Soviet Union that helped solve post war issues at Tashkent. India’s PM Lal Bahadur Shastri died of a heart attack there the night he signed the Tashkent Agreement in exchange of territory. He was forced to return the Haji Pir salient to Pakistan in exchange for some of Chaamb Jaurian. The line of control (LOC) in Kashmir came into being from the old cease fire line. Gen Kumaramangalam VCOAS designate was consulted at Tashkent.

The Indian side lost around 2800 officers and men, 8000 were wounded and 1600 were taken as POW’s. At its end, the Indian Army held some 500 sq. miles of area in Kargil, Tithwal, Uri, Lahore, Mirpurkhas and Sialkot. Pakistan held a little more in Akhnoor, Khem Karan and Fazilka. This war was planned by Pakistan to nibble at Indian territory in the South and make another unsuccessful grab for J&K”. UNQUOTE.

History repeats itself in a new forms and is repeating in same areas of infiltration the Army knows but after Kargil Committee, BSF has many posts and comes under Home Ministry so command and control is diffused. RR was to be a special force with separate funding but it is a rotator Army posting.

In the cold on 8th Jan, 2013 Pak army beheaded Lance Naik Hemraj and severed the head of Lance Naik Sudhakar Singh (13 Rajputana). In Aug 2015 forces killed terrorist Anwar Khan in August 2015 in Poonch area a part of 15 member team of Lashkar and Jaish terrorists of the BAT. In February 2000, seven months after the Kargil War, a Pakistani BAT killed seven Indian soldiers in Nowshera in Rajouri district and army discovered the headless body of a soldier, Sepoy Bhausaheb Talekar.

BAT appears to be the secret barbaric arm of Pakistan Army, and the Indian Army has been bearing its brunt of specially instructed terrorists not be caught on the Indian side, as 1st May shows. Pakistan DGMO responded to India’s DGMO on hot line telephone. Pakistan’s Special Services Group (SSG) also forms the BAT aka Gen Musharraf and employs terrorists for Trans-LoC action up to a depth of 1 to 3 kilometres and use technology for navigation and attacks.

The future places a critical burden on the Defence Minister, NSA, the Army Chief, the other Service Chiefs, and the Armed Forces for PM to clear action what ever the Government decides and cyber and Intelligence and world support will also count . Shan No Varuna

A 62 PAGE VISIONARY JOINT WAR DOCTRINE WAS RELEASED POST SURGICAL STRIKES/ TROPEX & CDRS CONFERENCE — A CLASSIFIED (RED) BOOK MAY HOLD INDIA’S NUCLEAR NFU RULES & NAVY’S SSBN’s COMMAND & CONTROL FOR DETERRENCE/ WAR

This is an IDF analysis of the “Joint Indian Armed Forces Doctrine Document” released by CNS & COSC Admiral Sunil Lanba on 25th April in presence of General Bipin Rawat and Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa.

COSC writes it is pitched at the strategic level and is unclassified for planners and it includes civil military relations and MOD as enablers. Military-Politco co-operation can enable more than systems currently in force calling separate services Integrated HQs and no theatre commands. No tactical matters are even hinted.

IDF posts this when on 1st May Subedar Paramjeet Singh 22 Sikh and a BSF constable at a border post were mutilated 200 meters inside India’s boundary under cover fire with Pakistan near Krishnaghatti (calls working boundary). As usual it is denied by Pakistan Army just after their COAS Gen Khajwa Bajwa visited LOC. Every time Pak Army Chief visits LOC some action takes place, and he must have demanded it providing cover fire in forested area. BSF is responsible for the IBL and dual command is seen on that boundary and Army should move up in Jammu is IDF thought.

JIAFDD defines and amplifies National Interests and values over the Constitution and does provide for the first time a semblance of a visionary direction for planning contingencies and assist in drawing up War Plans in a joint manner, earlier attended to by each service, superseding the sketchy doctrine issued eight years ago. It guides Chief’s and MOD to approach everything with a blend of aggressiveness and political resilience and maturity from internal security, counter-insurgency war and nuclear war.

Bhagwad Gita , Kautilya, Clausewitch, others and Lt Gen VR Raghavan (Retd) are quoted. “The existing State-centred approach to National Security, confined to the defence of a country against territorial aggression, has been widened to the idea of Security inclusive of a larger set of threats to the people of the State” –

Nuclear contingencies and war’s operational deployment are always classified and ambiguous in India’s case. Ex RM Parrikar did, raise the efficacy of No First Use (NFU) in public; later said it was a private thought, but Service Chiefs and Operational leaders must be clear on Rules of Nuclear Engagement(ROE).

India’s Football of codes to release nuclear weapons rests with the PM and NSA, while the Strategic Force Commander (SFC) has the responsibility for assets and DRDO for triggers.

Doctrines are taught with an aim to coherently deal with all possible security threats (especially those facing India) including challenges of conventional, nuclear and proxy wars and HADR. A joint doctrine brings in synergy among the Army, Navy and Air Force for jointly exploiting weaponry and assets. BJP Government, has the lessons of the Kargil half war (1999) which came suddenly, when Gen VP Malik said we will fight with what we have.

India is no more an apologetic, ‘Non Violent’ nation but a peace loving nuclear capable nation. This alone has changed the mind set of the world, and Navy issued a meaty Maritime Doctrine and Military Strategy even before its first SSBN INS Arihant became operational with K-15/B-05 nuclear missiles.

SURGICAL STRIKES- 2016 A HARBINGER TO JIAFDD ?

Triggered by the four militants brazen attack at a Uri camp on 19th Sept , where 19 soldiers were killed Army Special forces stealthily carried out successful surgical military strikes across the border that shook Pakistan and surprised the world. Foreign media blared, “On 29th September, 2016, a military confrontation between India and Pakistan began. India said that it had conducted ‘surgical strikes’ against militant launch pads across the Line of Control in Pakistani-administered Azad Kashmir and inflicted significant casualties”.

‘Military confrontation’ made strategists discuss whether such an action of transgression could lead to war between India and Pakistan which were earlier listed as Red Lines of Pakistan. IDF sees this also a polite message to China to respect the Line of Peace and Tranquility, with no transgressions.

INDIA’S Non Alignment policy has faded and Strategic Interests are coming to the fore, with a strong economy and looking to alignments in the neighborhood. Nations like Bangla Desh, Myanmar and Vietnam have been offered Security agreements and exports on credit. Island territories in the IOR are helped by India’s Navy to ensure security to the extent each desires.

The surgical strike showed that the top leadership which appears incorruptible has confidence in its military, and are erasing an indelible fact of India’s 70 years when corruption had penetrated in to Indians’ DNA, and money was made in “Off shore Defence deals”, ( Bofors, HDW, AW-101) never proved depilating India’s Armed Forces.

USA has maintained pre-emptive strikes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria as legal. Recently, President Trump has said he can attack North Korea’s nuclear establishments to defend US interests. Israel has executed attacks more than once, and recently Israeli F-16s attacked Damascus from the air and claimed it was to destroy a Hamas ammunition storage.

Art 51 of the UN Charter defines Self defence obliquely permitting pre emptive strikes. Pakistan’s terror attacks could be treated as armed attacks on India. Self defence action in Indian Pak Occupied Kashmir is a thought only for contingency planners; as OP Parkaram took many by surprise and later led to many deaths in Army’s mine clearing ops. UN has avoided interference in many cases.

UN CHARTER CHAPTER 7 Article 51

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

China’s CPEC runs through the area of Indian Kashmir that Pakistan occupies and calls Azad Kashmir, and has Chinese thinking. Pakistan issued a notification to make Gilgit and Baltistan the 5th Province of Pakistan.

India today is Economically, Militarily and in Joint Doctrinal terms stronger than ever before. These three constitute the main components of Comprehensive National Power (CNP), and this assertion can be attributed to PM Modi’s leadership, that his Alma Mater RSS has imbibed in him with shades of Hindutva to go propel India.

PM Modi has also made policy statements, calling for territorial consolidation, which could imply military involvement.

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

India today is Economically, Militarily and in Joint Doctrinal terms stronger than ever before. These three constitute the main components of Comprehensive National Power (CNP), and this assertion can be attributed to PM Modi’s leadership, that his Alma Mater RSS has imbibed in him with shades of Hindutva to go propel India.

PM Modi has also made policy statements, calling for territorial consolidation, which could imply military involvement and warned China CPECis on India soil.

On 15th August, 2015 from the Red Fort, PM Modi asserted Pakistan’s occupation of Indian Kashmir(13,297 sq km some which they call POK) is India’s and covets it legally. It sounded like a bugle which would need support as 2.000 sq km Shaksgam valley was illegally ceded to China in the Sino-Pakistan Frontier Agreement 1963.

A container train with goods journeyed from London’s Gateway terminal to Yiwu in China on 28th April in 18 days ! Quite an achievement which will be touted on 14th May OBOR meeting in Beijing with world leaders. India may only send low level representatives to mark objections to CPEC, which China will seek to involve Nepal and Afghanistan. India is likely to see inauguration of cranes in the Chah Bahar berth and is India’s answer to CPEC and Gwadar.

With Pakistan in desperation there is no traction on Ex Cdr Jadhav on death row and terror tactics even mutilating soldiers, showing Red rags to India . Pakistan’s lies on its terror and claims with gaps, about Jadhav spying are on TV U Tubes below and defended by Gen Saighal.

The month long Tri-Service Ex TROPEX- ( a show of joint force next to Pakistan), must have included high level Joint planning and jointness like it must have gone in to planning surgical strikes. It must have given vision to PM and could have been discussed in the day long Commanders Conference at IMA in Dehra Dun, where PM Modi asked for a proposal for Theatre Commands, it is reported. Absolutely the right progression for a Joint Doctrine to be enacted in Theatres for synergy.

The Joint Operational Doctrine reads , “India has moved to a pro-active and pragmatic philosophy to counter various conflict situations. The response to terror provocations could be in the form of ‘surgical strikes’ and these would be subsumed in the sub-conventional portion of the spectrum of armed conflict.” .
The doctrine proposes joint training of personnel, unified command and control structure besides pushing for a tri-service approach for modernisation of the three forces. All long over due for Tri service synergy called ‘Purple’ in military parlance.

The doctrine talks of the steps initiated for the establishment of the ‘Defence Cyber Agency’, ‘Defence Space Agency’ and ‘Special Operations Division’ and ‘Integrated Theatre Battle’ to ensure decisive victory in a network centric environment across the entire spectrum of conflict in varied geographical domains. Shan No Varuna.

FM JAITLEY RETURNS –PARRIKAR SAYS BYE TO MOD WITH NO LEGROOM FUNDS UNLESS FM OPENS HIS PURSE & ISSUES STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP RULES WITH ORDERS TO PRIVATE FIRMS FOR FDI OR SAY ‘HEY PRABHU’ AND DEPART !

This is an analysis of the, ‘Capital Funds Starved Ministry of Defence’ (MOD) which needs allocations by the new appointed RM Jaitley for badly needed operational orders. The projects of the three services and Coast Guard from the 2017-18 Defence budget of around $ 46 bill, is burdened with over runs.

The Army is facing flak in J&K with terror and deaths, not of its making but faces politics between PDP and BJP and media, over incidents.

RM/RRM or Army Chief could have apologized to family of 26 year old Dar who Maj Gogoi (RR) tied to his jeep and they could have explained that Maj Gogoi did on spot adaptation to save ITBP and civilian lives and avoided deaths and an inquiry had been ordered. Social media and TV anchors could have been silenced as that has encouraged youth and women to pelt stones on forces !!

In such times a full time RM is imperative and to monitor progress of projects as PM Modi makes bureaucrats to do. The naval orders being executed include 44 ships, 4 P8is , 2 DSRVs and two nuclear submarines. The army has large 155mm gun contracts, BrahMos missiles, bullet proof vests, Akash and Pinaka systems and newer rifles, vehicles and radars and Rs 6000 CR to make up ammunition. The Air Force has orders for 36 Rafales, 6 C-130s, Spyder AA systems, 16 Chinooks C-47, 22 Apaches AH-64D, 3 Embraer AEWs, Akash AA systems, SU-30MKI and 123 Tejas Mk1As. Coast Guard has three OPVS, Dorniers, Dhruvs and many FPBs and is short of man power as it has expanded heavily on shore. All services are running short of technical manpower and Army of junior officers which can become serious.

The Navy needs 16 Multi Role ASW helicopters for newer ships and LPDs, the Army has tabled Gen Compose’s report and IAF must order transport planes to be made in India before its too late along with light utility helicopters and decide on FGFA. These can generate FDI if Strategic Partnership and JV rules and 30% orders to private industry Parrikar promised are issued.

President Putin awaits orders for two Krivacks called Gergorovich class as news comes in PM Modi will go to Israel to place orders for Navy’s AA Defence missiles and may be anti –tank Spike missiles ??.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a photo opportunity ahead of their meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi December 11, 2014. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

THE THREE IMPORTANT MINISTRIES

The three critical Ministries in any Government are Finance which controls the treasury (money matters- Arth Shastra) without which other agencies cannot perform, Home Land security which keeps the population safe, and Defence which ensures the nation’s borders are kept secure and enemies deterred or even made subservient by display of strength and strategic partnerships.

India needs to woo neighbours and even arm them with self defence wares like a Marshall plan or China fills that gap.

In India a Defence Council and a C-in-C system were tampered with. Pandit Nehru who felt a large defence force was superfluous and could engineer a coup as in Iraq and Pakistan. Later MOD got further skewed with coalition Governments when NCP leader Sharad Pawar demanded Ministry of Defence and deals were brokered and Congress and UPA/NDA used the key and other Ministries to feather nests of parties and leaders, fostering corruption to keep coalitions intact. Even BJP has to support coalition and supporters, even if some act fringed.

PM Modi is no intellectual or philosopher like Nehru, Narasimha Rao or Vajpayee but a hard nosed doer and balanced Ministry posts between professionals and RSS (VHP is an off shoot) members which had helped him as an RSS Pracharak and BJP party to a resounding victory. From 2014 PM Modi brought in integrity and professionalism and continuity except in Defence which has seen musical chairs, or one Minister holding two charges for months.
In that atmosphere BJP leader Advani was made ‘Darshak Marg’, and Jaitley a Advani loyalist was destined for big things and Modi wisely turned to youthful leadership and seems clear on Security and Pakistan. The PMO runs policy and leans heavily on RSS views who have nationalist Hindutva strategists in the team led by Amit Shah, Ram Madhav and Mulidhar Rao who have trotted the world and met leaders.

The Defence Minister and his staff normally need some knowledge of Military history, nations’ defence budgets and strategy and doctrines and geography and the Principles of War, but MOD is also one of the most comfortable posts and can lull a minister with travel and comfort. Both Jaitley And Parrikar have lived in Navy’s Kotah House in comfort.

The Union Minister for Finance, Corporate Affairs and Defence, Shri Arun Jaitley and the Minister of Defence, Singapore, Dr. Ng Eng Hen, at the delegation level talks, in New Delhi on August 19, 2014.

There are VIP planes (737s, Avro -748 and Embraers) at RM, RRM’s and NSA’s disposal to fly any where at a moment’ s notice, be well received with precision military bandobast and the frills that go with it. And the military knows how to please leaders and names of Pilot, Kalmadi etc and others who were servicemen could get even election tickets get emulated.

Finance Minister’s task is different and important. It is the busiest with budgets, taxes, black money etc and has to represent India on many International and World/ADB committees and travel abroad often while Minister of Defence is a 24X7 home bound task especially for a new comer, even if he is an IIT graduate or a Sriram College topper.

FM Jaitley has again been told to fill the warm bed of MOD suddenly vacated by Manohar Parrikar ( like on a submarine called ‘Hot Bunking’, not the best choice). Parrikar has already stated his Chief Minister ship of Goa is more satisfying. He missed Goa in his term, and in Navy’s largest air station INS Hansa the saying was the most important task was to receive and see off RM, especially when he made multiple trips for the Goa elections.

FM Jaitley is back and last time he promised to provide Navy multi role helicopters after commissioning INS Kadmatt at Vishakapatnam, to move on P 75i six submarines after visiting MDL, assured movement on 126 fighters, modernize the Army and grant OROP. Last time Jaitley left suddenly and RSS leader Manohar Parrikar joined but did admit it was mammoth task in MOD and his hands were tied and an NSA filled in as a CDS. MOD’s budget proposals were not accepted for 2017-18 and cut by 20% and some Rs 5000 cr got surrendered.

NSA’s world over have taken over as Super Foreign and Defence Affairs executors and in India also Ajit Doval is the de-facto Director and National Intelligence (DNI) and fills in for CDS duties.

Speaking at CII after a recent visit to USA Jaitley, where he proudly spread the word of India’s rosy fastest growing economy and invited FDI in defence, hinted he was made Defence Minister to propel PM Modi’s flagship Make Defence in India policy with easier rules. Then he winged to Moscow for a security conference as Pakistan aided by China has been exposed to be supporting Taliban in Afghanistan and its getting messier in Afghanistan and Middle East and Syria is a battle ground.

Parrikar gave nomination orders for 8 MCMVs from Kangnam South Korea and 2 Krivacks for the Navy to Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) for over Rs 45, 000 cr, but could not speed up traction. PM promised President Putin he will order two more Krivacks ( now Gergorovich class) in Yantar in Russia and 226T helicopters with a JV signed with Hindustan aircraft Ltd and there is silence, IDF guesses till Putin shakes his hand again with PM Modi these will have to wait. .

The Union Minister for Finance, Corporate Affairs and Defence, Shri Arun Jaitley reviewing the Indigenous Submarine Construction Project, during his visit to Mumbai, at Mazagaon Dockyard Limited, in Mumbai on August 27, 2014.
The Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral R.K. Dhowan is also seen.

For 2017-18 FM Jaitley allocated  Rs. 2,74,114 crore ( $ 46 bill) in the Defence budget up from Rs. 2,49,099 crore, not even allowing for inflation and included  only Rs. 86,488 crores for capital expenditure just Rs 148 cr more than last year’s Rs. 86,340 cr. FM blamed the increasing pension bill of over Rs 2,50,000 cr , and disregarded MOD’s budget request of 20% more, treating it like Parrikar’s (Oliver Twist’s) request.

After a year plus Parrikar threw in the towel to move the salubrious climes of Goa where he often he went weekly, not before he got 2018 DEFEXPO to Goa and hopes to get Aero India 2019 to Goa and Goans have welcomed his return and his exit has seen mixed reactions in Delhi as he was a good man in the wrong job.

IDF ASKS will RM Jaitley open the purse for new urgently needed orders he knows about. Shan No Varuna.