IOR – PACIFIC NEEDS A BIGGER INDIAN NAVY TO DETER PLA (N) AS XI JINPING ASSURES CHINA “WORLD CLASS STATUS” AT 18TH CPC’ & TO TRUMP CHINA USA TILLERSON HUGS INDIA IN 100 YEARS PARTNERSHIP —IT’S HOBSON’S CHOICE FOR INDIA

This is an IDF analysis  on the advances and expansion of the PLA (Navy) and President Xi Jinping’s ambition laden speech at CPC on his re-election on 18th Oct. 

This post is to unfold to ‘Thinking  Indians’ that if China’s aggressiveness is  to be tempered  and deterred in the decades ahead, a beefing up of the fine Indian Navy is overdue. It can be the democratic world’s insurance. 

Rightly USA looks to India with askance and sops, but still worries about Pakistan, China’s ally. Its Hobson’s choice for India’s foreign policy makers stepping out of the baggage of Non Alignment with a powerful self thinking PM Modi looking  a little burnt out on TV to many. He works hard with dedication and is not a easy delegator, and IDF notes has never taken a holiday or cared for family.  Modi is amazing and as a big buyer of wares the world panders to India. Wait till we become sellers.   Continue reading

WHAT WAR ON TWO FRONTS ENTAILS – IS NAVY WITH 67,000 & 134 SHIPS AND IAF ON SAME PAGE OR NEEDS TWO NAVIES — WILL USA & JAPAN SUPPORT WITH INTEL CYBER & MARITIME & SATLLITE RECONNAISSANCE ? A LA MALABAR

This is an IDF Analysis of the Army Chief’s declaration  that India’s  Army should be ready for a two front war, possibly   after assessing the  manner of China’s dire threats in the Docklam plateau to teach India a lesson. Few know India proved Chinese are no longer 6 feet tall, but as media is free in India, critics were many, shouting War Drum Beats. 

China warned India  to remember 1962 ! Very strong words no Army Chief could have tolerated. So was it semantics or a message to the Chinese to beware  India’s  Army,  Navy and Air Force.   PM and RM need to say something  to the nation too, as they did well with NSA FS and his team.  Semantics builds morale. 

IDF Salutes the Indian Army that timely and successfully  halted  and held PLA Road Building party for 71 days that was  brazenly building a road in Bhutan, with no heed to that small nation’s protests reminding China of its agreements for status quo. Continue reading

OP PAWAN / PROFILGATE DEFENCE SPENDING (EG BOFORS-NAVAL EXPANSION (1986-89)-THE OIL CRISIS & QUATROCCHI INFLATED HBJ PIPELINE PROJECTS & OIL RIGS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DOON LED FFE CRISIS IN 1991 BUT WHERE IS THE HISTORICAL CELL TO TELL THE FACTS AS MEA DISBANDED IT !

History may not repeat, but always rhymes, so this is a IDF expose, and  a historical perspective  of India’s 1991 liberalisation, not commonly researched due to lack of data and is  prompted by the  ‘Reforms’ Chapters’ by  top Economists in Rakesh Mohan’s hot selling book of essays-  “ India Transformed —25 years of Economic Reforms”. 

Rakesh was the brilliant Deputy Governor of RBI and helped IDF to learn new to  Industry as Economic Adviser. The book misses  details of why India went broke. 

Indians have a poor sense of history but know much of religious  folklore like  the epics Mahabhart and Ramayana. Another trait is Indians   react well  to crises with Jugad thrown in.  DEMONET with a notification a day  and GST still being sorted out, as Ex RBI Governor Rajan, son of an Intelligence expert  explains. These  are good examples where  the end aim is laudable,  but the steps to get there are with JUGAD.  So expect some liberalization as in 1991 as growth rate has dipped. Good news is Sugar is being imported for Depavali.  Continue reading

BRITS RESERVED NEWS/CURRENT AFFAIRS & EVEN SPORTS FOR AIR & CONTINUES AS FAKE NEWS PROPOGANDA WORRIES GOI—COL RATHORE IN SPORTS/I&B MUST UNSHACKLE SPORTS TO PRIVATE FM FOR YOUNG BUDDING SPORTSMEN AND SPORTS AFICIONADOS- HE ASSURED HE WOULD TRY AT USI.

This is an IDF Analysis of SOCIAL MEDIA,TWITTER FAKE NEWS and such used for policy making and also employed to suppress truth and manipulate and distort the truth. IDF makes a strong pitch to GOI and I&B ministry to release SPORTS to private FM Radio waves from All India Radio (AIR) monopoly which earns hefty, from Cricket monopoly. Bureaucrats dot like to lose it, on one excuse or other. Sports cannot be propaganda and India needs to better its medal record with 1.3 bill base.

Youth, Military and Sports aficionados suffer as sports generates a spirit, but radio in it is not allowed ! What a pity 70 years after Independence ‘British Chale Gaye……..Steel frame reh gaya’ !

Most Indians do not realise they never, or ever have heard a sports, cricket, hockey or any sports competition even an Inter-School match or a military sports event on Private FM Radio the widest heard, cheapest to transmit and receive, and the largest media in the world, now on mobiles too. Continue reading

OP PAWAN (1987-91) & PROFILGATE DEFENCE SPENDING (EG BOFORS-NAVAL EXPANSION 1986-89)-THE OIL CRISIS & INFLATED QUATROCCHI PIPELINE PROJECTS & OIL RIGS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DOON LED FFE CRISIS IN 1991 WHEN SOVIET UNION BROKE UP SO INDIA WAS LEFT IN THE LURCH & HAD TO LIBERALISE ON IMF DICTAT !

Indians as a trait  react well  to crises with Jugad thrown in. Today there is no money crises but a Religious divide which needs research as Have Hindutva majority are being challenged by the have nots. The gap is showing and needs minding.

 

In that vein  this is an IDF research, of how Profligate spending by the Congress led Rajiv Gandhi Government in majority, was the cause India went for  broke for FFE in 1991 and  went begging to IMF for a $ 2 bill loan which was sanctioned. Op Pawan was a large contributor to the crisis, not researched and why FFE  went down  so swiftly.  Majority Governments get over confident in Democracies and if they brook no opposition,  it can be heady  tending to Dictatorship.

Continue reading

IDF ANALYSIS OF INDIA JAPAN USA’s ADVANCED EX MALABAR-17 AS A MESSAGE TO CHINA WITH CHINESE NAVY IN MARITIME CROSS HAIRS—IN DOKLAM TIMES

IDF Analysis

The 21st two week Exercise Malabar in July 2017 with six intense days at sea (See 17 ships in a rare photo) must have been analysed for lessons learnt by Naval and other officials of India, Japan and the USA. IDF scoured the media reports to table this 1400 worded UNCLASSIFIED analysis on the KISS theory—Keep It Simple Stupid ! As Doklam stand off went in to a month.

Malabar saw 18 of the latest technological and armed worked up sea fighting machines operating in three dimensions, and employing the fourth dimension -Space for six days at sea of high tempo with Command, Co-operation and Communication (3CCs) experience of war like inter operability in the Bay of Bengal. Ships milled at speeds of over 20 knots maneouvering into stations. The three Navy’s Ship Riders in exchanged ships oversaw safety.

Indian Navy sea riders on USN and MSDF ships must have learnt a lot and eaten Ham Burgers and Sushi ! Naval officers were flown in on an US 6A Grey Hound from Chennai to USS Nimitz with few media and knowing Indian Navy they know what to look for as Argumentative Indians do. Navy is most argumentative and Chiefs showed it in the past. A separate subject that makes Indian Navy what it is. Ask any bureaucrat ?

The air over the 16 ships witnessed many of 90 fighter aircraft operating to provide attack data through Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) with plots for air control as planes have BVR weapons. The days of Dog Fights are over. Top Guns of the Mig-29Ks and F-18s got directed for surface action. This must have been a great experience for pilots and operation room crews and junior officers and air controllers and ND officers with excitement in the air if they controlled F-18s. Continue reading

EX MALABAR WAS A MARITIME MESSAGE TO CHINA WITH DOKLAM STAND OFF ON & DAILY WRITING IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN …ITS DAVID VS GOLIATH AND CHINA KNOWS IT — BUT FOR HOW LONG AT SEA NEEDS ATTENTION TOO

This is a China India Naval analysis by IDF with nuggets from an American authority, and laced with IDF lessons from THE LANDMARK 21st Malabar exercise while Doklam stand off was on. One of the two war mongers will have to blink.

EAM Sushma Swaraj said it all in Parliament and asked for talks and China said it will talk if India withdraws. Catch 22 it is, though media reported Chinese troops must go back to 16th June position at least, is India’s reasonable stance, but is China’s new Mao type leader Xi Jinping going to be reasonable as he awaits a sure but fiery re-election and dissent on some policy issues have been aired. Surprisingly Global Times did publish that piece, that told China Doklam is wrong.

 

Continue reading

CHINA’S PLA (NAVY) IS EXPANDING WITH BASES AND SHIPS & SYSTEMS TO CHALLENGE US NAVY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC WITH AN ANTI ACCESS (AAD) STRATEGY & LEGS INTO INDIA’S INDIAN OCEAN—- INDIA’S NAVY NEEDS A FILLIP IN INNOVATION AND NOT REST ON LAURELS

This is an IDF analysis on the advances of the PLA (NAVY) to unfold for ‘Thinking Indians’ that a shake up of the fine Indian Navy is overdue if China is to be faced at sea in the decades ahead. China currently respects ‘Maritime India’ and its Navy as the net security provider in the IOR, but the gap is closing fast.

China acknowledges India’s superior Geo-Strategic position like a sword jutting into the Indian Ocean. The Andamans can be floating aircraft carriers and track submarines with sea bed sonars and block ships. Currently US Navy MR aircraft inform Indian Navy when PLA (N) ships & submarines enter Sunda & Lombok straits avoiding Malacca Straits, and hope IN’s P8is, Satellites and ships take over as practiced in Ex Malabar.
India leans on US and Japanese QUAD power. China’s 2015 White Paper vowed to shore up PLA capabilities in Oceans. India does not issue White Papers so policy is shrouded.

India’s Army is staving off the Chinese at Doklam’s Turning Pont. Chinese claim they gave notice in May and June that they were building a road in the small Dong Lam area, ( belongs to Bhutan) and India has gone to aid Bhutan and safe guard India’s national interests as the Tri-Junction is disputed between Batang La nine km north of Mt Gimpochi (Gyamochen La 2000 meters away). Continue reading

CHINA HAS BULLIED BHUTAN WITH STEALTHY INGRESS INTO THEIR 89 SQ KM DOKLAM PLATEAU TO ‘TURNING POINT’ OPPOSITE INDIA’S DOKA-LA POST—NOW STOPPED BY INDIA-

This is a 1350 worded IDF Analysis from details given in Warring Nuclear Navies–India Pakistan ISBN 978-93-5156-638-0 in India’s Wars Chapter available from Variety and an annotated Trishul Blogspot Map of the weeks long standoff since June between few hundred Indian and Chinese Troops.
Both troops are angrily pitched few hundred meters “eye ball to eye ball of each other” in tiny Bhutan’s lower Chumbi Doklam Valley close opposite Indian army’s Doka La post (4100 mtrs) at Sikkim’s edge looking down where China were metaling a Katcha road at Turning Point (see map) in Indian troops view and for the first time were challenged.

Chinese troops were legally stopped and pushed from making a metal road in Bhutan’s lower Doklam Chumbi Valley. India has the backing of 17 and 27 Corps of Indian army poised in Kalimpong and Gangtok in Sikkim, and multiple troops in Bhutan to sandwich the intruders from Zhamperi Ridge and the map shows it all. Chinese know that no one wants war, but want India to blink on its responsibility for Bhutan and this could take time as it is Catch 22 –IDF explains.

China’s is also flexing muscles and Psy warfare with threats of a skirmish or trouble to break India Bhutan closeness Confucius style as done with Pakistan and other neighbours of India is IDF analysis. India is firm to get PLA back to status quo to the position of June or Status Quo Ante to Batang La North to the tri junction.
India’s stand will be known as NSA Ajit Doval who steers India’s strategic policies with PM Modi is in Beijing to discuss the matter with State Councilor Yang Jeichi China’s NSA for India border.

Will India stand firm as it did for over time in 1988 when Chinese troops stealthily set up a post inside Mc Mahon line at Sumdrong Chu with a helipad in Arunachal when India made it a state of the Union in 1986. In a chess move Gen K Sundarji set up a big camp speedily with helicopters etc next to Sumdrong in Wangdung and stood firm till both retreated. There was a skirmish.

IDF was part of Op Brasstacks & the Chequerboard paper exercise and studied Op Falcon for the book. The Army must have studied those and planned and briefed the Government as knowledge of military matters is taken lightly even in Parliament. Gen Sundarji explained these military and political moves while on holiday in Singapore post retirement, saying India lacks strategic understanding but BJP uses Strategy in politics well for power.
BHUTAN-INDIA-CHINA TRI-JUNCTION INFILTRATED FIRST BY CAMOFLOUGED GRAZIERS AND THEN PLA ROAD BUILDERS OVER YEARS CITING 1890 CONVENTION NOT THE LATER STATUS QUO AGREEMENTS THEY AGREED TO TO PUT THE CLOCK BACK
Article 1 of 17th March 1890 Convention On Borders

The boundary of Sikkim with Tibet became India’s after PM Vajpayee convinced JIang Zimen in Beijing around 2002 to show Sikkim as part of India. In fact, in 2012, Beijing even reached an understanding with Delhi that the trijunction would be finalised only with consultation along with Bhutan, and China was fully aware that India did not accept the trijunction at Mt Gipmochi but at BATANG LA as Bhutan had records. But Chinese were clever like it says it collected Tawang taxes for Lhasa and say they collected taxes from Doklam graziers.They quote ….

Article 1 of the Convention, signed at Calcutta on 17th March 1890 by Henry Petty-Fitzmaurice, then Viceroy of India, and Sheng Tai, the Imperial Associate Resident in Tibet, reads: “The boundary of Sikkim and Tibet shall be the crest of the mountain range separating the waters flowing into the Sikkim Teesta and its affluents from the waters flowing into the Tibetan Mochu and northwards into other rivers of Tibet. The line commences at Mount Gipmochi, on the Bhutan frontier, and follows the above-mentioned water-parting to the point where it meets Nipal territory [sic].”

Bhutan has a solid 1998 agreement that the boundary will be finalized and till then status quo but Chinese ignore it as for UNCLOS ITLOS award on SCS. The Chinese have claims on a strategic sliver of land West of the Zhamperi Ridge (see map) with spreading it maps in red, which has a Royal Bhutan Army post and China wants to get close to strategic Siliguri Chicken Neck of India where the roads and trains to North East play, and ignores tri junction at Batang La around 9 km to the North and Chinese Bhutan Border is along the ridge moving West from Batang La is clear. But good propaganda and media can make perceptions change and even BJP is learning.

The bilateral relations between tiny Bhutan and India have been traditionally close and share a special relationship making Bhutan its protected state not a protectorate for Bhutan’s foreign policy, defence and commerce with India’s “Economic stimulus package”. India operates 3 hydro projects, of 1,416 MW and expanding in Bhutan and under the 8th Aug 1949 and 2012 seminal agreements. China ignored Bhutan’s demarches on intrusion as it wants Bhutan to open diplomatic missions. India and Bhutan co-operated and also were the only close nations which did not attend BRI meet last month in Beijing. China looks to Tribute not refusals by smaller states as the Middle Kingdom as a big brother neighbour using its economic and military power, as in CPEC. India is the only nation in the East that can challenge it. Hence USA looks to closeness which Irks China and object to India’s Naval exercises like SIMBEX and Malabar and bonds with Japan as the Quad lined against China.

As per the agreement between the Special Representatives of India and China in 2012, the two sides have to maintain the status quo until their competing claims are resolved in consultation with the third party, Bhutan. Gymochen Mt Gimpochi is 20 km as the crow flies from the West Bengal border so this needs noting on the map.

India is clear the trijunction is at Batang via Merug La and Sinche La to the Amo Chu river which Pandit Nehru took from Nathu La when he went to Bhutan from Sikkim. The line turns southward, and runs along the Amo Chu. There is a ridge line that runs east/southeast towards/along the Amo Chu river. This ridge is called the Jhampheri ridge and Chinese claim troops have crossed it. See Map.

Indians have also moved down earthmoving machinery with an aim to undo the work to be done by the Chinese. These dozers were highlighted in the pictures that the Chinese Foreign Ministry released on 29th June with its view.

This standoff has the world guessing who will blink first as Chinese refuse to vacate the ingress they have made, by trying to make a metal road to the Turning Point bang opposite India’s Doka LA post having crept in stealthily over few years. Indian Army saw it happening from Yadong in Tibet and may have over looked as troops do not know much about borders legality as in 1962 about Thagla Ridge and nala below. The Rajputs were routed and war began. Few survivors of Rajput ran away as stragglers and Lt Gen Ravi Ipe then a Lt related his experience as Chinese were Korean battle hardened and had Flame thowrers they employed on Indian bunkers and were well kitted and many books tell the tale and also sited above.

Delhi then had said the Nala and Thagla was India’s but this time as RM Jaitley has said India is not as in 1962 and that is true of Indian Armed Forces and they would be greater power if India had joint Commanders and AIR-LAND and SEA-AIR battle strategies instead of 16 C-IN-Cs China knows and worries.

Bhutan has no diplomatic relations with China so like the UNCLOS –ITLOS resolution on South China Seas Chinese paid no heed to Bhutan’s cries. Agreements of 1914 and three more later mean little to the Chinese as they think they have the money and the barrel of the gun. The Chinese want to move South and claim the climbs of the Strategic Jhamperi Ridge of Bhutan with the Royal Bhutanese army post and Indian training troops, by getting closer to the Siliguri Chicken’s Neck of India and one can see the lights some 30 km away on a clear day from Doka La. IDF will follow the CATCH 22.

10TH JULY 2017 EX MALABAR WITH 15 NAVAL COMBATANTS AND 120 AIRCRAFT & HELICOPTERS WITH INTEROPERABILITY IS A SHOW OF SOLIDARITY TOWARDS CHINA WHEN PLA(ARMY) AND INDIAN ARMY UNITS ARE LOCKED IN EYE BALLS IN DOKLAM WITH REVERSED RIFLES FOR THE TIME BEING

This is an IDF Analysis of the importance of the most advanced naval exercise for the Indian Navy — Malabar 2017 and what is its aim, and how much it achieves for the security of democratic nations to show power and deterrence as no one wants war. But when rising power challenges the risen power surprises do arise in some form.

History rhymes always in some new Avatar. Panditji a world statesman never anticipated 1962 or Shastri 1965 or Vajpayee Kargil a half war USA helped resolve and Pakistan suffered and did not mind. British never expected Hitler’s actions and IDF recommends latest Churchill movie when Gen Eisenhower takes on PM Churchill. Jis ke Lathi uski Bhains explained later.

Malabar is an area on the West Coast of India from the Makran coast that India shares with Pakistan in dispute for the true border and the sea boundary till India’s Southern tip. This is where Ex Malabar with US Navy began in 1992 with the Gen Kicklighter’s visit and Indian Navy which has US trained Chiefs goaded the move and IAF and Army followed and MEA had no option but get closer to USA as DRDO did.

IDF can prove as in many instances maritime action which is an ancient form of globalization and International Law leads to changed external relations and laws that Navy understand best as there are no roads at sea but Rules of the Road are a must for mariners. There was a break in 1998 in Malabars when India exploded its Shakti bombs and it re-started when the Indian Navy escorted US ships in the Malacca Straits after 9/11 in Op Sagittarius despite Malaysia’s ire that India was violating UNCLOS 1982 Clause of Innocent Passage of repeating passages, not doing steady transit and continuous course in Malaysia’s territorial waters.

Malaysia knew in International Relations power is the key which can disregard laws with excuses and in Hindi they say …Jis ke Lathi Us Ki Bhais. The one with the stick owns the Baffalo as Cow is sacred in India. Today China does just that in the South China Sea disregarding UNCLOS 1982 and ruling for Philippines by IJC. There were helpless agitated statements by some ASEAN delegates at the excellent and generous 9th Asean India Delhi Dialogue 4-5th Jul at Taj as the Chair allowed SCS to hog two sessions. ASEAN is divided by China’s Lathi (Stick) and unless USA takes on China all are helpless and India can make Joint Strategic Statements till India’s Navy power rises to operate in that area. The 22 Guardian drones Navy is acquiring can keep track but action without US Navy will be fool hardy to show China as China’s navy is in the Bay to track Malabar and UNCLOS 1982 allows it, sans close quarter collision situations.

IDF has an inkling that China will re-open the SCS when Taiwan agrees to say they are an interested party jointly with China for ITLOS to examine Ibu Ata (Taiping) island as an island not a rock as it is the biggest with an air strip and Coast Guard and de-salination plant. The ruling was weak on Ibu Ata but that would mean Taiwan which has the SCS maps accepts one China policy. So it is a Catch 22 for Taiwan and President Trump is beefing it up ! China has patience and when Deng was asked a relevant question said it is too early to tell !

Post 26/11 US lifted the sanctions on India and agreed to bigger Malabars and in 2006 it became a QUAD with Japan Australia and Singapore and moved East as India looked East then acted East and Eastern Naval Command became big and capable like IFR 2016 showed. It had the élan and care of Adms RK Dhowan and Soni ex NWC USA and it was world class and show of ability of the Navy when a State Government under Chandrababu Naidu co-operates the public do more.

Today Indian Navy and US Navy are more connected and in the dim purple lights in action stations in the Operation Rooms of Indian Navy and US Navy where SEA RIDERS are exchanged with CENTRIX in Malabar for safety and co-ordination one cannot make out who is Indian and who is American ! The orders and language is same. Some say we are in bedded !

The world is more and more in a struggle between the Risen Super Power USA under a temperamental President Trump and rising power China under ambitious Xi Jinping who has promised his people the Chinese dream and worries India under a dictatorial leader PM Modi with Hindutva dreams is driving India as never before and may spoil the party. A standoff is on in Doklam on the border.
Fifteen Naval units from India, Japan and the United States with 4000 personnel alone on 43,000 ton INS Vikramadity aircraft carrier with Mig 29Ks and 107,000 ton nuclear powered USN Nitimz and Japan’s Helicopter carrier are in the Bay and possibly some touching Vizag to participate in Malabar 2017, a joint mid-summer exercise aimed at addressing shared threats to maritime security in the India-Asia Pacific region.

Indian and Japanese navy participating in a joint exercise. PTI
The exercise involving naval ships, aircraft and personnel from the three countries will feature in both ashore and at-sea training off India’s eastern coast in the Bay of Bengal, a statement from US embassy said on Thursday and will focus on high-end war-fighting skill sets, combined carrier strike group operations, surface and anti-submarine warfare, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD), helicopter operations, and visit board search and seizure (VBSS) operations, it said.

The exercise would also include medical operations, maritime patrol and reconnaissance operations, damage control exercises and subject matter expert and professional exchanges.
Malabar 2017 is the latest in a continuing series of exercises that has grown in scope and complexity over the years, the US embassy said.

“Indian, Japanese and US maritime forces look forward to working together again to build upon and advance their working relationship to collectively provide security and stability in the Indo-Asia Pacific region,” the embassy said.

“Each iteration of this exercise helps to increase the level of understanding between our sailors and interoperability between our three navies,” it added. SHAN NO VARUNA