MTCR LEMOA & NSG ARE ABOUT FREER TRADE AND MODI ADDED INTELLIGENCE CO-OPERATION TO COMBAT TERROR AND CORALL PAKISTAN AND CONTAIN CHINA

This is an IDF Analysis of PM Modi’s trail blazing five nation tour : In Afghanistan in the safer Herat mountains he dedicated India built Salma Dan with President Ghani; in Qatar PM discussed maritime security and with Switzerland and Mexico Modi asked for investment and trade and support for NSG which he got , and while in USA he orated an amazing electrifying speech to the Joint Houses of the US Congress to make every Indian American proud of India and instill confidence in Americans. Interestingly Modi put the cat among the pigeons for Pakistan and China without naming them.

In Congress PM Modi compared bi-partisanship of Republicans and Democrats to India’s Upper Rajya Sabha in mirth and laughter in US style to please both sides of the aisles. Trump or Hillary was his objective. Modi seldom jokes in India, but jibes more.

Modi IN USA cover STAMPS

In Modi’s horoscope it could be said he has powers of hypnotism, and IDF can vouch for that. PM Modi has outshone Nehru’s intellectual speeches who held a world view of advice and excessive morality, and Vajpayee’s poetic practical way of looking down and modulating his voice with the confidence of a writer. Modi shows he alone is proud to lead India and as he is single, flies at night, and works by day, no family chores !He leads a country on the rise with population and geography as atributes. India has potential if harnessed to lead in many spheres but bureaucracy controls many strings for that, which PM’s trip was without. In India it is a force to reckon with.

PM Modi is shorter than most Americans, but blew his 56 inch chest to the full with a tri colour hankie in his jacket pocket, and entered Capitol’s Hall and waved to all, like a gun trotting cowboy which Americans appreciate, having been there in 25 states earlier before a Visa was denied. Modi knows Americans. Now he could get a Green Card if he asked HIBI too. In his speech he roared his ideas in perfect English like a Gujrati lion from Gir in typical Gujrati accent Americans are familiar with, to repeated clapping and thumping of tables to tell American leaders and the world that watched him on TV, what the Super Power can do with the rising star of the INDO-PACIFIC in trade and commerce and security with friendship and need to hit terror and warned International law breakers, hence China and Pakistan without naming them to behave and named LET, Taliban and ISIS and their horrors in areas West of India.

Modi quoted Abraham Lincoln and Thoreau for Americans and Swami Vivekanada and Gandhi for NRI Indians (both Indians not glorified in RSS script ). All four are known to Americans and said Martin Luther King got his ideas of non –violence from Gandhi to an ovation and reminded them that both statues were close to each other on Mass avenue which houses the Indian Embassy. Modi’s is India’s marketer abroad par excellence. Credits to him and his speech writer. His team has good ideas and grammar too and Modi is brilliant for memory and delivery. Americans could not have expected this, as currently Obama is their barometer as an orator.

Modi told China without using their name or South China Sea challenges that International law must be followed. Currently comments are muted from China but Chinese do not rush to respond like Indians do as in Chess, but with Weqei like moves and plan delivering a left handed googly —-the IBM motto. Then the Chinese Global Times, Think Tanks and media follows. In PM Modi’s speech the Indian Navy again got its sailing orders and mission objectives to head INDO-PACIFIC which was also endorsed by RM Pannikar at Shangrila and elaborated in IDF’S last post on this site.

In nautical terms SS (Steamship) India had been sailing since Independence at ‘Prudent Speed’ specified for anti collision every naval officer knows by heart as IMO’s ‘Rules of the Road’. Our leaders called it prudent Non-Alignment. No wonder SS India never kept ETA as visibility to decide ‘Prudent Speed’ kept changing, and missed many opportunities even in clear visibility. Indians got steeped in poverty, low education levels and backward. PM Modi mentioned how Mr Borlaug of USA gave India the Green revolution, seeking another. SS India’s Captain Modi has now given a ‘hard a starboard wheel order’ (right side recommended to avoid collision) in USA and , increased speed to take station Bravo behind USA. USA is now on India’s side, non alignment has eased and hopes have risen for India to rise like China did.

If PM Modi can show the same spirit of purpose and control fissiparous tendencies of the Hindu right and be humble like he was when he shook hands with NRIs and deeply embraced Obama and embraces all leaders in India too, and be generous to India’s fine military for support, as he showed at Arlington for US soldiers in DC with Ash Carter, then India can see ‘Achhe din’ for sure. India’s economy is on a roll. DPP can be chased and Indians can deliver ! India like its military is multi-cultural and must remain so.

PM Modi has kept USA’s defence interests and Pentagon happy with $ 12 bill defence purchases and bureaucracy in Foggy Bottom content with Malabars with a QUAD now which has got China guessing. USA’s DTTI support and aircraft carrier construction cooperation and such initiatives are not worrying Russia which is not far behind. Russia supplies SU-30MKIs, T-90 tanks, is executing INS Sindhukesari’s refit appx $ 220 mill and another Kilo submarine will follow to Zyvodchka Yard, the INS Chakra payments go in and another Akula and the SLBM S5 are being discussed and Kondakulam nuclear plants plus spares for payments it appreciates. Israel is flush with small defence orders and France has Scorpenes and $ 9 bill Rafales to come. Singapore has extended its lease in Indian army stations.

PM Modi has balanced and impressed all nations with a Yoga like pose and recommended it to US Congress as he said there are no IPR India claims. Japan is coming to India with a Rs 50,000 cr rail link when Nemiwisa (agreement) is reached. Italy is the challenge to nab you know who, to resume business with Finmeccanica !

Finally NSG is a trade and security issue and was made to prevent India to possess nuclear weapons after India’s PNE bomb in 1974. India refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It precludes India to do any nuclear trade which India can do as a nuclear power nation. India’s membership application now looks closer if China can be goaded into agreement after PM Modi’s visit. Uncle Sam said he will help.

India now looks sure to enter the export control regime of the Missile Technology Control Regime later this year, the Wassenaar Arrangement for control of conventional weapons and the Australia Group for control of chemicals that could mean business for India.

IDF notes that India in MTCR will be allowed India to import long range missiles as 300 km rule will disappear and BrahMos’s range can be easily increased and can import Avenger/Predator drones. The LEMOA agreement to be surely signed will bring in US ships for repairs and spares easily and US can buy supplies from India. IDF learns a clause that each case will be viewed and no Indian self interest will be left out.

PM Modi has thus ensured India may not be on the High Security Council table in UN with Veto rights, but it is now there with its might, geography and military to contain aggressive China and Indian Military better get ready. India has gambled to pay for its security, and to get Pakistan and China to know Big Daddy USA is with us. Pakistan has put its application for NSG and Sartaj Aziz has raised Kashmir and imbalance in the region. .

Is India more secure now will be the question historians will ask down the years as India has shed the hesitation of yester years and strategic autonomy that previous PM’s preached but in every agreement India signs with USA there will be a clause, Case by Case and that is the price USA has agreed to play with the rising kid on the world power block.