INS India as a nation lifted it’s sails abroad with PM Modi with another year of a ‘Command Performance in 2016’, but the state of internal health of India and it’s military’s just like its neighbourhood’s unhappiness with India Inc, continues is IDF’S analysis. India is rocking in to 2017.
IDF gives ‘thumb’s up’ to BJP’s foreign and military profile which PM Modi has raised with 22 foreign visits, back slapping personal friendships, oratorical speeches and military purchases from USA ($ 10 bill), France ($ 9 bill), Russia ($4 bill) and Israel ($ 3 bill). Ex FS Kanwal Sibal has written details in a few pieces. FS S. Jaishankar son of a strategist, sleuthy NSA AK Doval, FM and BJP’s Ram Madhav and Murlidhar Rao deserve tuxedos.
Americans say, ‘Thank God it’s Friday (TGIF)’. They work hard from ‘Monday to Friday’ and party after ! India to nation’s abroad means only the 120 mill ( upper middle class for the market they provide) who partied all the time despite demonet. Modi says he will stop this in 2017. Get ready to digest demonetization. It could raise the internal capital Defence budget but reduce the FFE content for a bit !
India’s lesser 200 mill are less educated, struggle hard and many join the Forces and some 300 million poor never matter in India except in state police services with political pull and as a vote bank for elections. So UP, Punjab and Goa elections will be crucial for Modi to steam.
Indian’s had echoed, “Thank God for Modi (TGIM) ”, after eight years of UPA. BJP came promising Indians, El Darados with gold and silver with a tinge of RSS Hindutva and a Ram temple, a CDS and a MARITME ADMINISTRATION, all awaited. Parrikar presents his CDS paper to Maestro Modi in Jan 2017 !
Congress combine cleaned India’s till and bureaucrats kept their ‘Eyes Shut, and walked to plum jobs, removing trails ”. A hapless Chief of Air Staff (CAS) fell in to the caged parrot’s nest, more as a Cat’s Paw, but not any bureaucrat !’. This is where IDF’s analogy begins and prophecy follows.
Americans are saying ‘Thank God Its Trump’ (TGIT)’. Americans love ‘Gung Ho’ leaders like they hailed 53 inch chested Gen McArthur when he parachuted with a crate of beer and a cigar in his mouth ! He made the famous statement I WILL RETURN when US Forces lost Philippines.
Mc Arthur returned, Trump has been making ‘Gung Ho’ statements MAKE USA GREAT AGAIN which may mean you are with me or against me ! India’s military should note this as ‘ a hand in hand partnership’ as 30% is US already. Russia is watching and Putin showed his glum at Goa in Oct 2016 when he should have been sunbathing. Xi Jinping another COMMAND LEADER was there and refused to talk about Masud Azar ! Xi is busy with SCS that China will gain if Taiwan challenges the Ex parte ITLOS order, CEPC, MSR and OROB.
56 inch PM Modi came promising to teach Pakistan lessons, remove terrorism, nail Congress and corruption and give the OROP. Supreme Court rulings and the 7th pay commission have contributed more to OROP. Military’s NFU demand breathes. 2017 could see movement but with climate change air will remain polluted.
A new soldierly Army Chief Gen Bipin Rawat takes over with his Khukri belted, not without a controversy, which could have been avoided had Government announced its revised selection policy. Now C-IN-Cs will be on tenter hooks. IDF wishes COAS and Air Chief ACM Dhanoa all the best as RM Parrikar assures India will have an overdue CDS in 2017. They may have to adjust MANEKSHAW style, long overdue. A boat needs strong hand on the $ 40 bill military. .
Till then CNS Adm Sunil Lanba who speaks softly but shoulders the big anchor, has to ensure INS Betwa is righted, India’s Navy is beefed with 46 ships building and will look after IDS, SFC with NSA and DIA, while Chiefs lean on their own intelligence heads.
Pakistan refuses to stop terror, give up India’s Occupied Kashmir (POIK) or grant Baluchistan freedom that PM Modi wants 180 mill Pakistan to do. Analysts say that can only be surgically achieved, so be on the ready, “ Soldier Always “. Forces killed 107 militants in Kashmir in 2016 and lost only 87, much better than Op Pawan under Congress where 1400 OG souls perished. Navy came unscathed with MVC and VrCs. RAW was still to ripen but has, LTTE continued and IDF salutes the forgotten as lessons were never investigated.
For the future India needs internal stability too, that PM Lee Kuan Yew said to his nation and leaders he tutored like Deng, US Presidents, Chang Kaishek and even tried to tell Mrs Gandhi. Singapore prospered externally and Chinese, Malay Muslims and Hindu Indians did well internally in degrees of their abilities respectively. An Indian is Dy PM.
Internally there is opposition to PM Modi and his policies including demonetization and GST from non BJP states and parties. No wonder military gets same canteens items at different prices and Delhi walas go to Gurgaon. Its cheaper. .
India’s leadership, law and order, our Institutions and investigative agencies are moving into hands of RSS selectees it is rumoured. This makes the internal situation challenging going into 2017 as even Ratan Tata paid tribute (like Chinese expect) to the RSS at their Mahal HQ in Nagpur and even promised to build temples, among other welfare measures.
Internally BJP is still trying to consolidate a divided India. Army had chipped in like it did in Rajasthan when Jats rose and IAF carried 10 tons cash in C-17s so more demands may follow if the symptoms rise. It is already affecting military to become political, like IAF pilots and Kalmadis became leaders.
The successes for India’s fine army, post surgical strikes are awaited, as that requires strategy, not just strikes. Tactics win battles and strategy wins war and that is the catch. RSS know Mahabharat and Ramayana more than Chankaya or Statecraft and RSS’s burgeoning think tanks show this with cash flows too ! Yet RSS military training and ranks, may be the silver bullet India has been hunting.
In the neighbourhood Nepal is at logger heads with India for interfering, Bangla Desh too seems peeved for terrory watery reasons and is arming it self with Chinese submarines and planes, worrying India’s Navy after Gwadar.
This brings maritime Chinese closer with cementing of CEPC, which India calls illegal. Sri Lanka remains economically beholden to China which refuses to co-operate on NSG membership for India or allow UN to classify Maulana Mahsud Azar as an International terrorist. Hence China is unlikely to see Pakistan fail. That’s the game, as Globalisition and USA on the wane.
Going in to 2017 the known unknowns, the first is the post Demonetisation effect on economy. Next is the quelling of Kashmiri dissents with PDP-BJP combine and the results of the forthcoming UP, Goa and Punjab elections for which Demonet was possibly designed.
Trump’s arrival and his policies will be critical, as Iran and Afghanistan’s future hangs in that balance and so does Chahbahar’s. The military is not consulted but will discuss only service wise, Navy the most.
India has emerged as a stronger military and economy than ever before. So 2017 predictions.
• Government spent energy to tame Pakistan, but India never talks to the Army brass there and that is smarting them after PM Modi’s call to take POIK and Baluchistan where Iran too has interests.
• Pakistan had droughts this year, its canal system is silting, no new projects of dams or reservoirs have been made but with India’s shrill warning of legally reducing waters to Pakistan from its own upstream rivers the noises in Pakistan is that India wishes to cripple food production in Pakistan.
• Another drought may see a tense near war like situation Brahma Chellaney writes about in more details.
• India was largest defence buyer in 2016 and will be in the top three in 2017. 7 Race Course will see new new name.
• Climate change will see little change and oil prices will rise but the most unknown is Trump’s policies towards India and China and what MAJOR DEFENCE PARNERSHIP means —it is continued courtship or engagement of an agreed time bound marriage.
• Italian Marine Case as IDF predicted is dead. Black listers will be whited. Tibet case is fading.
• If Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) succeeds which is set to fire with thorium in 2017 future power situation could change. ISRO will do India and its missilery proud. Shan no Varuna.