This is an IDF Analysis of the next two days as UK votes BREXIT and Britain will stay in is IDF’s hunch while at the same time BJP Government’s ambitions under PM Modi are on SCO meet on 23rd June at Tashkent and NSG in Seoul with announcement 100% FDI in Defence to please USA just before the NSG meet on 24th June where 45 nations out of 48 want India in and China is on the edge batting for Pakistan without admitting it.
The out come of SCO is known and NSG will be surprising ! China always surprises with national interests and its ambitions in full view. China has invested big in Pakistan which has a say and a geographic link with Afghanistan and Taliban, which is intent to regain power it has tasted earlier. Taliban is not being subdued with Drone Strikes as boots on ground are becoming thin. Few Indians are also being hit.
PM has courageously gambled on aggressive Diplomacy with himself like a traveling salesman and the President, Vice President, FS Subramaniun Jaishankar who grew up in India’s Strategy Guru K Subrahmanyam’s house ( his father ) and our Diplomats globe trotting with guns firing on all fronts to get the 48 members support in NSG; as the membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) along with Observer PAKISTAN is assured in Tashkent when PM Modi is there today. The President of SCO has assured and in course of time when India signs all SCO rules PM MODI will rightly gloat to score brownie POLITICAL points to Congress he well deserves. Modi has energy that PM Dr Manmohan Singh who had ideas lacked, and RSS spirit is to win some thing like the Chinese. The days when Mothers used to say , HAR KE MUT ANA ( Don’t come back losing). Its now what Chinese say. JEET KE ANA ( Come back winning ).
What will SCO do ? It will be another platform to talk to Russia China CAR nations and Pakistan and exercise with them especially for anti terror exercises with Pakistan which will be more than interesting. China wants India in to see it reigns in Afghanistan with support to Pakistan where it has invested much with CEPC, Gwadar and Ormara submarine base PNS Jinnah so the SCO membership is a deal. IDF hopes India and its Intelligence knows how to play its cards with China and Pakistan in SCO as intelligence and Diplomacy in missions should not be separate and can be a multiplying power.
Pak and India’s of MILITARIES will meet in SCO exercises but yet our Diplomats refuse to meet Pakistan Military brass and yet they shout “Control OF Pakistan is with its Military and its Chief”, which is strange diplomacy and IDF writes this as a member of IPSI where retired military of India and Pakistan were a conduit for cease fire in 2003. Both armies never talk or meet except when bullets are flying. The Coast Guards talk and surveyors of Sea Borders meet and peace reigns on waters except for poor fishermen eking out a living, but who cares ! Sir Creek is a done deal and IDF writes with Sandia Lab charts in hand based on median lines from the sea as land pillars are missing and acceptable by UNCLOS 1982. President Musharraf said so to PM Vajpayee
To please the world before NSG meet on 24th June in Seoul, some say , especially rich USA and JAPAN to support and INVEST IN INDIA TO BOOST Economy, PM Modi as is BJP’s rash want, promises and stumbles and corrects swiftly , suddenly announced a slew of nine rapid fire proclamations of FREE FLOWING FDI IN 9 SECTORS without the RULES or GUIDELINES.
It was like PM Vajpayee’s BIG BANG OF OPENING INDIA but VAJPAYEE had PPS AK Verma to in 1991 to attend to FIPB 24×7 (SEE PHOTO) clearances and IBM and COCA COLA came back in a week. Karunakaran took over Commerce but PM Narasimha Rao cleverly refused to hand over FIPB to Karunakaran as it has powers to make money.
Rest of the world came running to India except those sectors like Defence or where PSUs ruled decision making for the vote bank or funds that Congress needed. FM Manmohan Singh and aide Montek ( wife is an economist of repute too) were given a long rope and the two clever economists did short time wonders with RBI Governor till PM Rajiv and his Doon coterie and Italian connection screwed it up. Yet motor car and scooter industry benefitted Military too, and private companies began making military vehicles and small items. Aviation opened. Pharma and soft ware zoomed as Government left them alone. ISRO flourished with imports and helped Ex ISRO Dr APJ Kalam to make missiles from space Rocket Technology with Dr Sivatanu Pillai quietly helping written about in his book. . It all turned sour as Kalam became a political person as President and wrote books. Pillai built up BrahMos India’s richest defence joint venture with orders of $ 7 BILL. The missile is excellent, trifle expensive and was a Navy find with Kalam as SA to RM.
When these ANNOUNCED FDI rules will come hope they are like 1991. The land acquisition or electricity or EXIT Policy or so many loop holes of Intelligence clearance Visas for business folks is a question that worries . IDF feels it can happen only when leaders can sit in offices and discuss with experts and professionals head institutions. Till then Leaders will speak to media and mouths will water and stock will gyrate on sentiments !
All NDA leaders will be busy till 2017 in elections and bullying states and many others to go NDA ways, even in education. Those appointed by UPA like the RBI Governor Rajan and LIC Chairman seem to feel unwanted. Cricketers will run fashion as IPL has done wonders. RBI and LIC are the richest set ups of the developing world so RBI AND LIC Chairs are called the SEATS OF COMPANY POWER ! LIC or RBI can sink a company OR STOCK MARKET faster than a Brahmos missile or salvage a company with JUGAD than any salvage company.
100 % FDI IS OPENED in Defence but a full DPP and rules as above for FDI and Strategic Partnership which RM Parrikar has labored for a year are still to come. Military expansion without a strategy and poor budgets with increasing revenue spending with OROP and 7th Pay commission to Nuclear missiles at sea with Arihant with its commissioning awaited and its Command and Control undecided, makes the defence scene uncertain. On power, many hopes are pinned on Fast Breeder Reactors and Nuclear Energy to Thorium but India is a Space power now with capability. The canvas conceived by PM Modi is huge and exciting and IDF hopes delivery is as good. No wonder PM Modi wants in to NSG which will give economy a boost with nuclear trade and world power like 5 NPT wallas as a NUCLEAR WEAPON STATE which India is already accepted.
The NSG meet has an agenda which can be summed in a few lines. China is the Elephant in the room who can make or spoil the show. On INDIA US NUCLEAR DEAL IN 2008 IDF told the world it was a high level call from USA to CHINA to not object to US India Nuclear deal in NSG. China got its pound of flesh and said OK but ASKED USA and NSG not to object when China gives two additional nuclear plants to Pakistan under the Grandfather agreement. It happened and media recently reported the call was from President Bush to President HU Jintao so now PM Modi will meet PM XI Jinping at TASHKENT SCO meet and if he agrees to China’s concerns the result will see India edging in closer to NSG table and result will be surprising to Pandits and IDF too. FS Jaishankar is well briefed in Seoul already to speak to USA, after PM Modi gives him a signal OF WHAT TO DO ! Navy calls that YANKEE means GO AHEAD or NEGATIVE ….no can do ! SHAN NO VARUNA.