As a preamble in this Pot Pouri post IDF must praise Prime Minister Modi for a successful visit to Saudi Arabia with promises of money to invest. India needs a dose of investment badly. India is a gold mine for investment with a consuming population of 1.3 billion. That is why India is sought by all nations and even World Bank to raise the world’s lagging economy. Chancellor Merkel is here to say so too !
IDF recounts what a Chinese Think Tanker said, “ India is a fair maiden every one wants to woo”. India must take advantage of this.
FIRST challenge is to bring normalcy in Kashmir and though the threat of a India-Pakistan nuclear war is remote, but if it happens it could kill more than 100 million, a study warns in South China Morning Post of 3rd October, in a make believe scenario. It relies on PM Imran Khan’s threats on Red Lines of Pakistan and paints a scenario, “New Delhi retaliates Pakistan’s actions on terror by sending tanks into the part of Indian Occupied Kashmir (POK) controlled by Pakistan. Nuclear Armageddon would be only the beginning”.
The nuclear researchers found that the nuclear firestorms could release 16 million to 36 million tonnes of soot (black carbon) into the upper atmosphere. IDF does not agree, if only a TNW is used against an military advance or a Nuke is used by Pakistan to sink a ship which scenarios were discussed even in Ex Brasstacks long ago by the Pakistani (RED) team in face of defeat to seek cease fire, long before Pakistan formally had announced it has the nuclear weapon. In this state many in the militaries responsible for India’s second strike and Pakistanis with First Strike must be exercising nuclear scenarios.
The world must realise Pakistan will have to be curbed to cease its terror machine and that war may not be the answer, as India does seeks POK some day. By 17th Nov a Verdict on Ram Temple at Ayodhya will resolve one wish of BJP/RSS. As Thucydides put it, ‘the strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must’.
After Turkey was snubbed by India on FATF vote, media reports Turkey did this as it is looking to Pakistan for nuclear weapon technology and Pakistan needs money. Some Pakistani will sell his soul as AQ Khan did. President Trump is soft pedaling relations with Turkey so as to not upstage NATO, despite Erdogan partnering Putin to take control of Kurd areas in Syria. Another explosive Middle East scenario threatens to get messy, as Indians are employed there.
PM Modi may have discussed all these issues with Xi JINPING earlier and MBS in Saudi Arabia and he came back to Gujarat his home state, to celebrate Unity Day at Sardar Patel’s Statue at Kevada and spoke of, ”We the People of India” and Unity in Diversity and Article 370 abrogation and how well BJP has done. India has risen with his firm leader ship and like a good Captain he has changed courses.
Stock market zoomed past 40,000 and Kashmir has been integrated into India and all was good news ! But a suspicious EU MPs Delegation to Kashmir arranged by a lady lobbyist Madi Sharma and a Srivastava company soured the air for the opposition, who are not able to visit.
The same day news broke of Israelis with NSO spying on Indians What’s Apps who oppose the Government with Pegasus software sold only to Governments (Aka Intelligence Agencies). Big Brother is watching. The apps spying is done on Mobile Telephones with injection of malware to read recorded messages stored in the phone and Indian Intelligence agencies under a proficient NSA who is rated one of India’s best Int operators, have become good at this. The importance of being earnest with people especially in private affairs by those who use intelligence is the hallmark of democracies but may be India needs hard hold in these times to progress.
On the snooping story India’s intelligence agencies have always co-operated with Israel and now USA. The Chinese always insist no technology is ‘penetrate proof’ so the Chinese who are offering Huawei 5G have proved Erickson or USA 5 G Providers can also penetrate India. Technology makes all Nanga(nude) ! Proof was when Stuxnet German software was used by USA to paralyse Iraqi nuclear uranium enrichment centrifuges. The jury is out who snooped on India’s human rights activists as Supreme Court may have to look into this with a new CJI ? He will be watched man !
On the same day on Economy, BJP’s adviser panel Economist Surjit Bhalla with whom many including Urjit Patel have argued when he said Indian Economy was in good shape after Demonet. The same Bhalla now recommends to BJP who is in full power, to allow declaration of Black Money at 15% tax and 40% in FDs at 5% for 20 years. It is a great idea of Amnesty that should have been used earlier. IDF a Defence Economist feels its not too late and Indian economy will boom and in turn Defence, especially neglected Navy will get more funds. India can also support neighbouring nations looking to Indian Navy as Net Security Provider (NSP).
India is transferring INS Sindhukriti a Kilo being refitted at HSL Vishakapatnam to Myanmar to hoping they buy Russian submarines and India will help with staff etc and exports. Russia and India did not think of this earlier so Bangla Desh operates two Ex Chinese Ming boats from Chittagong. Vietnam helped by India has 6 Russian Kilos but Pakistan and Thailand will have Chinese submarines. The string of submarines from China in the IOR. So Trump wants India in QUAD and Indian Navy to do joint patrols with US Navy, the US Pacific Fleet Commander says he told CNS Adm Karambir Singh. Trump himself faces hot water and possible impeachment. Unofficially India is in the QUAD and in the US camp by choice as India and China will be competitors and USA will fight before it goes down to China which is the rising challenger. India has little other choice, but to stay with the current leader.
On maritime power, this is what President XI Jinping told the Nation in 2014, “We need to do more to take interest in the sea, understand the sea and continually do more to promote China’s efforts to become a Maritime Power”. On China’s BRI view.
From1420 to 1820 China was a great power with highest GDP in the world followed by India but it was the maritime power of European nations that dwarfed China and India. China never forgot the humiliation. British maritime power overcame Dutch and Portuguese strategy by signing the Treaty of London (1824) as a desired end state. The Dutch had left Cochin in India to go East to Indonesia, the Spaniards on Pope’s call had gone to South America and Portuguese came East and a spate of bullying ended. This is part and parcel of the US–China struggle for military, economic and political dominance in the region. ASEAN with centrality worries and Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen says, “‘the challenge for the United States and China is to offer acceptance of their dominance beyond military might (meaning economy). If their policies are lopsided against other countries’ interests, these countries will seek other partners’.
Indians and the world has to accept BJP/RSS is convinced a Hindu Rastra and Hindutva are the recipes for India to rise. The challenge will be to convince the Southern States…Not easy as culture and DNA have taken roots.
IDF reminds the politics of a country needs leaders who can change timely course and we have to trust PM Narendra Modi as India has voted for him and BJP/RSS. Nations like Ships have to be navigated safely by Captains, avoiding shoals and wrecks. India has changed the course of internal politics and religion in the last six years which has become a very important part of State governance. India began its journey 72 years ago based on Secularism which is defined as Separation of State and Religion and first day on a ship is spent to show the new sailor, “On this ship we are one 24X7 a Team—no religion, as it is personal so keep murtis and photos inside your lockers. A vegetarian will have to eat from a plate used by a non-vegetarian and Dalits and castes are not known on this ship”. The ship runs well and the book An Untold Story —Travails of a Dalit Girl has that theme! Shan No Varuna.