This is a 11OO worded crisp IDF Analysis with Trishul Trident, of China overstretching as the Middle Kingdom of old, gambling India under rising Covid-19 and a slowed economy. PLA haughtily painted a CHUNG KUO(China) map at Pangong Lake and put up a tent at Patrolling Point 14 in Ladakh both in last two months on Indian side of the LAC, the scene of bloody clashes. China aims to thwart India’s advances which Chinese view as aimed to disrupt CPEC in POK and take Aksai Chin after HM Amit Shah’s statement in Parlaiment on 5th Aug, 2019 on Art 370. It set the cat against pigeons in China.
After tension and poor Intelligence analysis on Chinese build up in Ladakh, a violent face off took place between India’s ITBP on May 5th at Pangong (Tso) lake’s Northern shore at Finger 4 spur. Chinese challenged India’s claim up to Finger 8, with injuries in numbers including Army personnel, media reported. On 15th June both clashed at Patrol Point 14. India learnt Col Babu and 19 Indian brave souls lost lives which seems to have humiliated China with more dead. Col Babu could have phoned Brigade Commander for orders but like Nelson, acted to bring down a Chinese tent, when a stone hit him in the head and India’s Regimental Honour was bruised …….IDF calls it a turning point in Leadership to be honoured, like Gen Sagat Singh’s initiative at Nathu La. Massive military build up ensued eye to eye.
Forces are disengaging 1/2km from 5th July, not de-escalating. Tension continues at Pangong Tso as India readies for a long haul. China worries of back lashes from other nations, as PM Modi’s oration to warn China days of territorial expansion are over. Some nations have emulated Modi’s fist of resolve.
Geography, Strategy and Economics is Geo-Strategy for nations, and needs to link History lessons which repeat. Outcomes are the nearly the same. Chinese suffered historical Foreign domination for only 100 years, but to rouse Nationalism label it as, ‘China’s Hundred Years of Humiliation not to be Repeated”. China CCP Communist danda(stick) is ambitious and strategic in thinking. It has been worried about connectivity in the Pacific and Indian Ocean via Malacca from day one. Hence the foray to take South China Sea (SCS) by force, and co-opt Pakistan in a land route to get access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean in the Great Game, with maritime ambitions, to sideline India.
Indians were never their own masters for 1000 years with Mir Kasims and lost ‘Strategic Thinking’ in their DNA with doses of Ahimsa and 250 years of Whitehall dictate till partition. India opted for Non Alignment and Import Substitution as slogans with Garibi Hatao with no strategy as Brezenski wrote. Pakistan became India’s obsession and Kashmir the bone. India is strong but Indians are emotional and religious but religion is also used for nationalism.
China’s Xi JINPING and CCP are employing Geo-Strategy for its future having a strong economy, but is concerned what secretive PM Modi’s plans are for POK, Aksai Chin, CPEC, WHO, QUAD plus 5 and One China Policy on Hong Kong and Taiwan and stumped to script an India strategy ! Modi’s oration in Ladakh to the troops on 3rd July with clenched fist televised world over, warned expansion of territory will be not be tolerated in this Century showing China a resolve. His ‘One to One’ meeting with 14th Corp Commander Lt Gen Harinder Singh was like Churchill’s to get the state of mind of the Commander, and ground situation which earlier he got from others, and asked how the captured officers and men were treated.
As of 5th July troops are disengaging step by step in the Galwan Valley and Hot Springs near Kong-kala Pass where LAC turns South to Spanggor Lake after Corp Cdr talks, diplomacy by EAM Jai Shankar and Army Chiefs resolve to mobilize as much as Logistics permit, and Indian Air Force forward flying displays. Now scene will turn to NSA Ajit Doval talks with Councilor for Foreign Affairs Wang Li.
Summing up. Xi Jinping is in the mould of Mao Tse Tung’s expansion.
Mao preached war tactics, taught in the principles of war capsule at RNSC UK with intelligence as prime. India has to ask if civil service IPS led and IPS manned NTRO aided, is adequate for Intelligence where media leads some times, for a rising India with a restricted DIA or deserves risk taking professionals.
1. Mao preached Attack dispersed—–Isolate enemy first—–Attack concentrated later ——–Do not seize cities——Retreat and attack later if advantage gained. This was followed in 1962, Korean war and now in Ladakh and Sikkim at Doklam. China threatens Bhutan, and buys Nepalese PM’s favour to try win without war.
All PMs and PM Modi have kept peace on LAC and trusted China, with unbridled imports and concession in investments which also gave China advantages. This has to change. China’s lifeline in IOR is Pakistan and the CPEC which needs attention as China’s sweet spots. See maps as CPEC enters in Gilgit via Khunjerab Pass. China’s horizontal escalation and preemption in Ladakh has now baited India.
Military is getting attention by PM Modi with import of weaponry. If Modi had emotionally responded to talk to his friend Xi Jinping of 18 meetings it would have been a strategic trap. Now vertical war escalation has been averted by show of force. China’s aim is to burden India with Defence spending like USA did to down Soviet Union. It can fail if India reforms and lets India’s Animal Business Spirits Loose. India can get Military Assistance Programme (MAP) from USA, buy second ships and equipment from mothballed FMS’s US inventory like INS Jalashwa Ex USS Trenton has shown its value in Samudra Setu operations, increase Intelligence by joining FIVE EYES—TEN EYES. and lease equipment and select equipment, pay and manufacture in India, like the car and Pharma industry. India can tire China by maintaining the ‘status quo’ indefinitely and before China takes Karakoram Highway on lease through Gilgit, like Shaksgam by building up.
Xi JINPING will find humiliation difficult to swallow and Chinese Military veterans seem concerned. XI Jinping purged opposition and brought in his men and became Commander in Chief of CMC for life that surprised Chinese too. Media reported retired Admiral Sheng Li who build PLA Navy and retired two years ago was called in for corruption questioning. Intelligence must watch the scene. India has to think of reformed multilateralism with QUAD plus ASEAN UK and FRANCE a riparian IOR nation with islands, to checkmate Cheeky Chinky Chinese and Pakistan. Shan No Varuna.