IDF analyses the catastrophic effects of the Covid-19 Virus pandemic and the Geo Strategic situation hitting the world like a Tsunami. A mysterious disease with frightening potential has the world economies reeling under. Nations are hunkering down with doles.
Covid-19 took USA and Europe by surprise, where the virus still rages, while China announced its economy and manufacturing are bouncing back after it reported 80,000 were infected, and around 3,000 succumbed since December-January Chinese New Year of the RAT’s celebrations.
China has flattened the rising curve and India is being led against COVID by Prime Minister Modi, to adhere to a nationwide lock down for 21 days, citing the Mahabharat war, Pandavas won in 18 days, evoking emotional support. Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran and even Pakistan are reporting rising cases and fatalities. PM Boris and PrInce Charles are the latest in UK. Compared to cases in China, India with an equivalent population, has only around 800 cases with 16 deaths as on 27th March, mainly those who traveled to and from abroad.
USA has 80,000 cases, with over 1300 deaths and its debt ridden dollar rich economy with a GDP of around $ 20 trillion has dipped, whilst China with an economy of around $14 trillion had a war chest of reserves to battle the virus. By all accounts COVID began from Wuhan’s animal market or a Laboratory by accident or design, the world is still to decipher. Accusations by Trump it is ‘Chinese Virus’, was not accepted by G-20, PM Modi quoted, to keep the peace with the DRAGON.
China employed draconian measures and locked down Wuhan and Hubei province to contain the damage, as the deadly virus spread worldwide. China augmented its improved medical facilities with technology on a war footing, and dealt with the virus and its population with a heavy hand, without alarming the world for which some individuals in USA have filed class suits. The suits cite China, using biological warfare banned by the UN in November 1984 under, ‘The Convention on Prohibition of Development, Production and Stockpiling, of Biological and Toxic Weapons and on Their Destruction’, after the Iran Iraq war where it was used. In IndiaDRDO disbanded its stocks. Nations secretly test biological systems in laboratories under the guise of medical research.
NO REIGNING POWER GOES DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT & A RISING POWER HAS SEARING AMBITIONS
For six decades after World War II, USA bolstered by an economic Marshall Plan became world’s super military and economic power with nuclear assets, bases and global interests. The USA based its forces on foreign soils, on the pretext of safeguarding their security, and made them pay, first against the Communist Soviet Union’s rising military power in the Cold War, and more recently a rising ruthless China seeking to challenge USA’s sway, especially in Japan and the East.
During the Cold War, a rising Soviet Union’s Communist party challenged USA as a super power and power-projection capabilities with its own nuclear forces and military power, and spread Communism in nations which got to be called the game of, ‘Chinese Checkers’.
India turned to the Soviet Union, but Mrs G denied it bases when Soviets built a massive Naval Dockyard and the Kremlin Hostel at Visakhapatnam for the Indian Navy with spare capacity. Soviets offered to build Bhimilipatnam at their cost as Vizag has a narrow entrance. Today Navy builds its four nuclear submarines there at SBC in congested waters with Russian help, on the Charlie design Navy shrewdly acquired. The two superpowers managed to avoid a major war, aware of the devastation a nuclear war would cause.
USA with information warfare(IW) ensured Soviet Union’s economy got over extended with Defence spending , and the Union collapsed ending the Cold War by the late 1980s. Pakistan needs to learn lessons. Its heading there, China not withstanding as Rand predicted.
After China’s disastrous Long March, Mao’s premier Zhou En Lai connived with Pakistan’s links to USA to secretly arrange two visits by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in July and October 1971 before the Indo-Pak war. That facilitated an opening for President Nixon to visit China in 1972 and US to begin business with China. When Chairman Mao died in 1976, Deng Xiaoping rose and led China through a series of far-reaching market-economy reforms, which earned him the reputation as the ‘Architect of Modern China’. Modi can study be that man with a change of course !
China turned a leaf to allow Capitalism with a Chinese tinge, to ensure CPC remained in ultimate power. Large US and European investments and factories flowed into China to use its cheap labour and dictatorial systems at work. As long as you give a Chinese worker good meals on time he/she will work hard to become richer. Religion has little place in their life and have one language. They exercise after supper ! They are different !
China silently built up an export economy, with Deng’s two mottos, ‘The Colour of the Cat does not matter as long as it Kills Rats’, and ‘Socialism is not Poverty. To be rich is Glorious’. With widespread education and advice by Lee Kuan Yew to Deng to follow the Singapore model, less studied, China galloped. BJP can learn lessons A lease clause of investment has already entered DPP-2020. It should be Lease To Buy. Ask Gadkariji !
For NATO the expensive ethnic war in Bosnia and Herzegovina(1992–95) to break Yugoslavia, showed the clash of civilizations. USA’s dependence on China’s cheap manufacturing lulled USA’S own manufacturing to almost die a death, except in weapon technology. China rose in a manner not witnessed before.
USA is still the super power fulcrum for its trading partners and resources, and re-assures its allies USA would defend common interests. India with no option is the latest to join via with QUAD and Defence purchases, awaiting BECA. USA’s ability to project and sustain military power on a large scale has been its credo, but its ‘War on Terror’, after Islamic Caliphate groups like Al Qaida supported by Pakistan and Afghanistan carried out a cheap devious tactical attack on 9/11/2001 in New York has taken a big toll. The extended wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan and Syria followed and Russia, China and Iran took opposing sides. The Shia-Sunni divide in Muslim nations of the world and an oil war between USA when it discovered Shale Oil and Russia a rising oil power and Saudi Arabia has exacerbated, and allows China to rise.
It would be naïve to think the world’s power and economic equations will be the same after Covid 19. A rising China has been challenging the USA with its ambitious ‘China Dream’ (中国梦; Zhōngguó Mèng) a term promoted by President Xi Jinping since 2013. Chinese people seem willing to sacrifice and lean a lot on its subtle Intelligence mechanism and internet firewall for hard hold governance, as long as they grow rich. President Trump tried a trade war and denial of technology and sanctions on allies Russia and Iran, unaware China had bought, poached and imbibed enough technology and had its students educated in USA and abroad to take the nation forward even in artificial intelligence and data analytics where USA led.
Despite USA’s massive Intelligence Project Echelon in California and UK’s GCHQ which supports USA’s NSA from RAF Menwith Hill, China has over taken in Intelligence Collection that Edward Snowden breached. Echelon is a 93,000 global network of nations with electronic spy stations. It eavesdrops on telephones, faxes, visa applications, credit cards and computers. It can even track bank accounts and information is stored in Echelon computers, which can keep millions of records on individuals like India tried with Adhaar.
With the spread of advanced military technologies China’s in People’s Liberation Army , the USA’s ability to preserve military ascendancy in key areas like the East China SCS and Japanese Seas and the Persian Gulf respectively, is being challenged. President Trump wishes to withdraw from Afghanistan and Syria. Given the current Geo-Strategic stakes reigning in the world USA’s efforts to project power and support of America’s allies the debate has shifted to who will come out the winner/stronger—USA or China post the Covid19 Tsunami. India holds many keys in the Indian Ocean Region, which irks Pakistan and its ally China. This is the time India must reform and seek investments from cats of any colour to kill India’s economy of poverty and rats! Shan No Varuna.