Ranjit B Rai
This analysis is sparked by two very interesting comments on IDF’s posts on the fine Indian Army’s restraint in the Cease Fire in Kashmir, saying once again the Indian Army Commanders on LOC in 2018 are fighting with one arm tied, as Army is told every time the Government has no strategy, except in this case ‘MU TORA JAWAB’ by the Army and Para Forces under separate Commands, Communications, Commendations and Intelligence (3CI) and reminding Pakistan to vacate POK. Water is flowing over rocks on LOC with legal Art 370 few understand as a promise to Kashmiris who forced Hindus out and some left for better pastures !
Both these challenges of BJP have become the Army’s 24×7 responsibilities short of war in absence of orders to take actions like Israelis do in Gaza to gain territory and quell Palestinians in Israel, or even in Lebanon or Syria with no questions asked. UN only makes noises . Russians did it to take it’s Cremea from Ukraine. Nuclear war is a worry for India but lacks lack an alternate strategy, so Army actions are tactical and sacrificing on both sides !
First spark to explain this post is that 44 Uniformed souls have been lost this year, many civilians killed and displaced and Pakistan seems to have taken advantage of the BJP Government’s Cease Fire driven to placate Muslims during Ramzan and Hindus for the Amarnath Yatra, temporarily reducing the dynamism of the MU TORA JAWAB.
Second is the publication of a joint book by Former RAW Chief and the Kashmir point man in PM Manmohan Singh’s Congress Government AS Dulat who sipped Whisky with politicians confessed in his book on Kashmir , and Gen Durrani, the rabid flamboyant ISI chief, who were daggers drawn in the THE SPY CHRONICLE released on 23rd May in Delhi. (See Photo). IDF will review the book.
Ex FS and NSA Shiv Shankar Menon wrote a book IDF reviewed and another brilliant IFS FS Jai Shankar in Tatas is writing IDF hopes Ex IB Chief Dhaneshwar Sinha looking in to Kashmir as the BJP’s point man comments !
The authors says India should invite Gen Bajwa COAS of Pakistan Army for talks. IPSI can help get Army Seniors for a Golf Game at Amritsar across Wagha’s 30 minute drive from Lahore at short notice with our OG Seniors to see who wins to melt the ice over beer !
The India Pakistan Soldier’s Initiative (IPSI) led by MP late Nirmala Deshpande had been saying this since 2003 Cease fire. Now , the Ex RAW Chief says it with his counterpart citing North Korea’s example, or is Pakistan desperate for time to complete CPEC ?
IDF has maintained Indo-Pak relations will never be normal for two similar emotional people till two more generations are in power , unless a war dismembers like the Yugoslavia/Ukraine Hindu Muslim effect comes up. China will be involved as CNS Adm Sunil Lanba has raised the PLA (NAVY) as a genuine bogey and the inroads it is making in our waters of net security provider status the Navy has. PLA(N) wants a say in IOR’s Security Architecture and is getting near if QUAD does not become a NATO soon also unlikely !
In an all out action India’s economy will suffer more as Pakistan’s economy can get no worse, but may improve after CPEC is completed and Debts forgiven by China by buying up strategic real estate in that mineral rich nation to make Ormara as its submarine and ship base, like Diego Garcia and Bahrain are for USA’s Navy and a Listening post at Jiwani like India has in IOR, and is looking at Assumption Island in Seychelles that FS Vijay Gokhale discussed there on a dash and Jai Shankar had begun.
QUOTE FROM HINDU
Former RAW official cites example of thaw in Korea and Trump’s willingness to talk to Kim
India should invite Pakistan’s Army chief Qamar Jawad Bajwa for talks, said a former intelligence chief at an event attended by …leaders and former key officials former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh, former VP Ansari, NC leader Dr. Farooq Abdullah, Yashwant Sinha and Kapil Sibal, former NSA Shivshankar Menon and former IB Chief K.M. Singh.
“Who could have thought that the Koreans could speak to each other? Or that Trump would want to meet [Korean leader] Kim Jong Un? In which case what is the problem with inviting the Pakistan Army Chief to India?” said A.S. Dulat, ….at the launch of a book of his conversations with former Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director-General (1990-91) Asad Durrani “Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace”, co-authored by journalist Aditya Sinha.
The statement comes a day after Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said she would take any call from the Pakistan Army chief for peace “seriously”, which was praised by some of the participants.
“Under the present environment, people interested in people to people ties have no options, but it is hope that keeps us going (Duniya ummeed pe kaayam hai)” Mr. Durrani told the audience.
The panel, moderated by television anchor Barkha Dutt also spoke about past attempts at India Pakistan dialogue and the reasons for their failure.
Some called these two authors experienced in Dirty Tricks who targeted each other with huge funds and resources, as two delusional authors who do not understand the nature of the beast.
IDF reminds that every officer (& soldier) of Pakistan’s military on commissioning takes the oath of allegiance (read out from
the Parchment from the Koran) to FIRST protect the idea of Pakistan & then the Constitution of an Islamic Pakistan. What it means is that the Pakistan Army is the sole entity to define what the idea of Pakistan is & ought to be.
Indian Armed Forces officers are commissioned to serve and obey a Democratic Government to safeguard India’s territorial Integrity. Most times the order is given to the Army, and it is without dialogue with the other two separate Chiefs and unachievable targets are set, and in case of Pakistani sponsored and internal actions on LOC and in Kashmir or unrest like the JAT unrest in Rajasthan.
Three larger glaring examples :-
- In 1962 the Army Commanders on site were telling New Delhi that Nam Ka Chu stream was shared by India and China on McMahon line but New Delhi disagreed to please Nehru’s, twice stated Forward Policy. That war is still a defeat in many eyes and Mao in China rose and thanked India. A powerful Indian Air Force was not brought into the war which was lost.
- In Sep 1965 the Government never informed Air or Naval Chief of the actions to face Pakistan. At 24 hours notice IAF was asked in to save the Army and Marshal of Air Force Arjan Singh who had an agreement with PAF to keep out went in to action. The Navy was told to see movies at Regal …..Bombayites were upset !
- OP Pawan 1987-91 has been portrayed with 1400 souls lost by the Army in an earlier post.
IDF salutes the Indian Army the glue of India which acts independently with no CDS or Theater Commanders , which has pulled India’s coals out of the fire in 1962, 1965 and KARGIL with what they have under the way they are ordered.
Adm Vishnu Bhagwat wanted to buck the status in 1999 and BJP_NDA RM Goerge Fernandes ordered the Services not to take action on any intelligence report without RM/MOD’s permission when Bhagwat, bucked Fernandes and Def Sec to unfold Op Leech a Secret RAW personal operation. Bhagwat was sacked as a message on frivolous grounds and those who play ball are rewarded and so Indian Military looks to the Defence Planning Committee (DPC) under another Sleuth NSA to smoothen all discrepancies.
But commentator Amit Cowshish ex FA in Indian Express 25th May calls DPC A BLUNT INSTRUMENT IN AN ANOTHER ODDLY TIMED MOVE !
The Jury is out on Kashmir Policy and security but in Kashmir every one above 70 born in India should be asked to get a passport and sign Allegiance to the Indian state to reduce Army’s challenge to move to remove Art 370 or talk to Pakistan for a more peaceful border ! Navy Chief warns Chinese Navy is expanding and IDF explains Indian Navy which is smaller but superior is reducing . Shan Na Varuna.