Ranjit B Rai
PM Modi has returned from the resort of Sochi after an informal meet with President Putin at his request like with Xi Jinping in Wuhan in world changes, caused by President Trump.
In four years PM Modi has traveled to near 50 countries, like an NRI does, variedly hugged leaders, received hundreds with Chai (No liquor not even Asha) not taken Day’s leave as he is bereft of family, dressed nattily to make Indians proud and led India’s foreign affairs as ‘a personally driven and RSS planned policy’, to USA’s delight in what IDF calls- the Honeymoon period. It was consummated.
The marriage has to now survive and make babies. All marriages go through good and bad times. India has gained immensely with $ 15 bill military toys, technology, FDI and standing as the key to QUAD. No India—– no QUAD ? Russia and China know that ?
Hence United States has placed many eggs in India’s role in the newly coined Indo-Pacific aimed at containing China. India in return got support for NSG the last hitch, for acting as a counterbalance against China and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But IDF asks, does Trump administration’s policies on Iran, Afghanistan, trade and climate change in sync with India’s circumstances of poverty. If there is a conflict or differences between China and India, as on CPEC through POK will India have to face the pressures from China alone, as at Doklam. The worry is India runs in compartments.
India’s state politics are in hands of Modi’s confidant of old times Amit Shah and his style. Economy is in others hands, as it was growing automatically with low oil prices and falsely with big loans to undeserving, inflating balance sheets and stocks market.
IDF salutes the ingenuity of the Clever Argumentative Indians and gentlemen businessmen like Tatas, TCS , INFOSYS and Mahindras and such to navigate traffic jams in Ministries, poor infrastructure and battled through DEMONET and GST! India’s foreign exchange reserves are at No 5 in the world, but visits to rich temples by leaders with tikkas and havans and Yoga has not helped the poor or education. Inflation and joblessness is on the cards with fuelling prices ! Poor, Poor !
Defence has been put in the very experienced NSA’s lap who served many years in Pakistan as a sleuth as much today is ‘Nuclear and Strategic Forces’ which needs deep domain knowledge and time to attend to, with increasing powerful missiles, bombers and submarines with targeting and doctrines. NSA controls these through an SFC and a busy Navy Chief Chairman COSC. The average Military man is assured and need not know.
THE 2018-19 budget has been cut for defence to infrastructures’ delight, but flyovers and bridges still fall and falter. Cars, trucks and bykes sell with no roads and parking. So India is free for all……Park anywhere, stop any where and hit or even shoot anyone who argues ! Police is with you, if you know how !
Normal nations increase vehicle population with increased roads and parking. Indians buys cars and then thinks of facilities. IDF notes Stilts in colonies are used as Servants Quarters. A German remarked that’s the way India works and it sure works he said, it’s a Gold Mine but needs mining you guys can’t do well ! IDF told him Kolar closed down and we annually buy and hoard gold in tons.
The political fighting between parties in do or die vs BJP , is like a war affecting economy. Internal security with a powerful RSS Home Minister is quite on his own in J & K and Naxal areas. Police and Paras are better equipped but unable to control their parishes, as the key called training, intelligence and command appear to be lacking. Seeing DGs and DiGs in civil clothes on TV does not inspire fear……..They speak like another Neta !
IDF salutes PM Modi and his staff on paper work that they execute for Foreign Policy, most essential involving Ministries, Armed Forces and Embassies. Funds have not been an issue as an RTI showed. IDF feels on return from trips as PM travels often the actions needed as follow up, do not seem to be as efficient, as not much comes out in the media and Think Tanks for Businessmen and to plan strategy.
The pushy lady I&B Minister made that public at midnight and was removed and an Army Olympian Col sharp shooter is in the Chair in I&B without Cabinet Rank as he is non RSS but should be, to deliver. At USI to 100 serving and ex serving Col Rathore when he was raw promised to Open Sports B’cast to private Radio……he tried, his Secretary told IDF but Cabinet did not agree. Send this to him as he has now ripened in BJP !
Abroad foreigners, even when a Defence order is issued know details. In India it is not shared between Indian services of same equipment. Supplier nations know more than companies in India and business heads in those countries plunge ahead with Security and Economic actions to gain orders, or go to court so Make In India suffers.
Time and flexibility in the 21st Century is a trait RSS must learn is of essence in today’s world to progress a nation, a business or an idea and shed secrecy and double talk for politics …Cow Slaughter is misused ! Niti-Ayog was for that ? But it lectures with detailed calculations on economy. Defence is not in it’s ambit so Finance Ministry controls a lot ! Economy and Defence are two sides of the coin.
Xi Jinping must have briefed CMC and others on Wuhan talks, and a pinprick of opening up mining on Arunachal border to populate the area comes out as both leaders agreed to keep border peaceful. Little is known if Maritime issues, CPEC or IOR were thrashed as it was an informal meet with no rules.
President Putin too must have briefed his Politbureau with Service officers and Defence and Foreign Ministers on what he discussed with PM Modi as feelers are out and 60% of India’s military is Russian and lot dependant.
Why does IDF make this critical preamble ? For reasons.
IDF is clear Chanakya methods in the Information Revolution are outdated. But Chankaya’s principles are valid ie Security (Suraksha) and Economy (Arthik Stit-hy) are the Sovereign’s first priorities. Adam Smith said so too. Businessmen should know what transpired in PM’s meets to pounce/plan on business for India.
In China the Government has allowed tourism to the Parcels where a Turbo Prop Bomber H-6K –copy of Russian TU landed on Woody Island. China has pushed tourism in the South China Sea with tourism from Hainan near the Naval base with amazing marine tourism facilities. This has removed poverty there with mainly private companies facilitating tourism in China. The Department of Propaganda gives ideas, seed money and prints pamphlets for them with promotions a subject India has missed to eradicate Maoism in Naxal areas with jobs that thrived in China too, earlier.
India has not made a hill station since Brits left and Simla Mussoorie and Nanitals have become chawls but tourism thrives as India warms in climate change. Chakrata is not being opened. New ones not supported !
At Sochi PM Modi must have informally discussed world issues dealing with USA’s sanctions on Iran and Russia and the effect on India of CAASTA. Indian business will suffer if USA puts some strictures as Trump has tightened on HIB2 visas for spouses and trade.
If USA puts conditions on India from dealing with Russia and Iran then supplies of oil even from Russia in pipelines, also nuclear co-operation for an Akula submarine and more power plants like Kundankulum in Andhra , CPEC through Indian territory, Pakistan and Indian Ocean and military supplies and terrorism and West Asia will need change in policy towards USA.
President Putin needs investment and trade and to keep his Defence Factories going and looks to India as India’s military is originally 70% Russian supplied which Russia supports with maintenance in India and in Russia for planes, helicopters submarines. To be supplied are Regiments of S 400 Anti Ballistic missiles, four Gregorowich frigates, 226 Helicopters, SU-30MKIs, BrahMos parts Phalcon AWACS with Israel and submarines worth $ 13 bill. But Russia’s policy is now linked with friend China’s national strategy. These are India’s new challenges to think about not Karnataka—India has to rise ! SHAN NA VARUNA