THE STRATEGIC SCENARIO IN THE INDO- PACIFIC IS IN NAVY DAIRY-2018 WITH SURVEYS BY UDAY ON IOR – SHASHANK & ALAM (RUSI) ON JAPAN & PAKISTAN & PRASUN ON IRAN AND AUTHOR ON CHINA’s MARITIME AMBITIONS

THE FUTURE & MODERN INDIAN NAVY –NAVY DAIRY 2018 –Forwards by Navy and CG Admirals. Variety Book Depot and Bahri Booksellers Delhi Rs 200. Bulk 30% discount for Services and institustions. Kotah House Rs 100/-

Economy makes the mayor run,  and China’s economy is five times India and the nation has risen, all people can read, cry and sing in one language in competition with nationalism spurred by President Xi Jinping’s China Dream. 

India has got  wrapped in unhealthy politics of religion and grab for power, at the expense of Governance. But India has maritime geography, massive capable youth  if trained and democracy and friends all over the world and needs to take advantage with a strategy, which India lacks. 

INDIA has  strategic partnerships with 30 nations but the only  tactical partner is  USA which dictated to India that it  is its major (strategic) defence partner, ruse for an Ally and now a Pivot in the East. Singapore is a close partner but it  was warned by China and its PM was not invited to BRI for remarks he made on South China Seas (SCS)  and China even blocked shipments. That’s how China hurts India and Singapore has been  careful since and Analyst C Raja Mohan also advises caution for India to take advantage of China, in fields it offers without giving up India’s core interests. Border can wait. 

India’s forthcoming defence budget 2017-18 will show how serious the BJP is on keeping China thinking in the maritime sphere and security.  Brig Khanduri of the Parliamentary Defence committee  has worries. Defence budgets have increased in  USA, China, Japan, ASEAN and Australia. India’s Defence Budget  is at 1.6% of GDP lowest ever,  and seven naval projects approved by the DAC long ago are in Cold Storage as Army argues that  with QUAD India’s Navy will not have to fight a war alone. Discussion is in Navy Diary 2018.  

The USA’S 2017 newest  Security Strategy (NSS) puts India in the limelight and Pakistan in the dog house,  and  takes on China and even Russia.  China has already warned USA to accept its rise which means “I have arrived in Indo- Pacific”  (A la Mac Arthur). At this  time NSA Doval is meeting  China’s rep Jeichi on Border issues after EAM Sushma had talks with Wang Li her counterpart for co-operation and both walked  tight ropes even on Doklam, media reports from both countries. Global Times views are awaited. Border talks may not see much movement as positions are poles apart except in the Central sector..

 “During the meeting between the External Affairs Minister and Chinese Foreign Minister the issue of Doklam was raised. Both noted the challenge it had posed to the relationship and expressed satisfaction that it was resolved with the disengagement of troops at the face-off site through concerted diplomatic communications,” said Raveesh Kumar, Spokesperson, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

A private competition  has  erupted between two leading bright  Naval Officers who are full time Maritime Watchers. Analyst Cdr  Abhijit Singh was  forthright as he is in ORF. He states  that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct was always about  the Containment of Rising China. IDF agrees and QUAD is all about that,  though Amb Shyam Saran has stated both India and China are too big to be contained and his book How India Sees The World is also an auto-biography. 

Analyst Capt  Khurana has traveled widely and used the Navy NMF platform   to assert  he coined  ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept in 2007, which combines the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with the Western Pacific region into a single geopolitical construct. That is a given as both confluence,  but he avoids the Containment bit.

 

If however any one wants to know all about the Indo Pacific it is in Navy Diary 2018 (Kotah House Rs 100 & Variety Book Depot/ BAHRI  Rs 200).

Excerpts below for the flavor and bouquet from experts.

 

STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

Uday Bhaskar, Director for Policy Studies

 

An assessment of the strategic developments relevant to Delhi in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) that unfolded in 2017 would point to China in an inter-linked manner. This progressively shifted towards East Asia post the Cold war years and was symbolized in the phrase ‘Asia-Pacific’ –however incongruous, the yoking of an Ocean with a continent ! By the late 1990’s the economic relevance of Asia began to rise, powered by the growth of China and India. Then Chinese President Hu Jintao, spoke about the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ – with reference to China’s high dependency , hence vulnerability, to hydrocarbon imports from the Persian Gulf . 

CHALLENGES FOR INDIA JAPAN CO-OPERATION & INVESTMENT FOR ‘FREEDOM AT SEA’ AND CHINA’S BRI AND THE QUAD Dr Shashank Joshi –RUSI 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to India in Sept 2017, produced fifteen agreements and included an ‘open skies’ deal, an ‘Act East Forum’ to promote Japanese involvement in India’s sensitive North Eastern states and Abe inaugurated a Japan-funded Mumbai-to-Ahmedabad $ 3 bill bullet train, building on several areas in foreign, security, and defence policy, with the now-routine affirmation of

“freedom of navigation and over flight” and the peaceful resolution of differences. This iteration promises to “align” the two nations. Japanese investments into India’s border states have been in the pipeline for a while first proposed in 2014, including 2,000km of “strategic road”, with improvements of national highways into Bangladesh and Myanmar. China claimes Arunachal Pradesh as ‘South Tibet’. These projects are at the stage of “preparatory research”, though loan agreements with the Japan International Cooperation Agreement (JICA) were signed in March. 

PAKISTAN OUTLOOK 2018 Kamal Alam – RUSI 

As 2017 draws to a close, Pakistan is far more confident of where it stands then it was a year ago. There has been a slow and steady stabilization effort begun by the former Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif  that has now been carried on by the current COAS General Qamar Bajwa. On the domestic front the military has consolidated further gains and continued the trend of building on the clearing operations that were carried out during Operation Zarb e Azb. The Air Force and Navy have taken a more prominent role given the spotlight of the China-Pakistan relationship, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the submarine deals progress. The Army Chief announced a new operation as is the want of every new COAS when he comes to office; his is called Operation Radd ul Fasaad. So how does the next year look for Pakistan’s defence strategy? 

PAKISTAN OUTLOOK 2018-Kamal Alam – RUSI 

As 2017 draws to a close, Pakistan is far more confident of where it stands than it was a year ago. There has been a slow and steady stabilization effort begun by the former Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif that has now been carried on by the current COAS General Qamar Bajwa. On the domestic front the military has consolidated further gains and continued the trend of building on the clearing operations that were carried out during Operation Zarb e

Azb. The Air Force and Navy have taken a more prominent role given the spotlight of the China-Pakistan relationship, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the submarine deals progress. The Army Chief announced a new operation as is the want of every new COAS when he comes to office; his is called Operation Radd ul Fasaad. So how does the next year look for Pakistan’s defence strategy?

THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN NAVY (IRIN) –Prasun Sengupta – Exclusive to Navy Diary Full Details worth reading and why President Trump worries about Iran and its Swamp Tactics in the Hormuz.

China’s maritime ambitions and ORBAT of nuclear and conventional submarines and outlook is by author  Ranjit B Rai.  Sam No Varunah.

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