This is an analysis of the ‘Security State of India, Pakistan with CPEC, and Afghanistan in turmoil interlinked with the machinations and interests of authoritative leaders of USA, China, Russia and Iran in South Asia”,
This, at a time when President Donald Trump has threatened North Korea and raised USA’s Defence Budget and challenged China in economic matters to balance trade and with dumping duty on steel, and hints to re-think of sanctions on Iran. The affaire Ex Cdr Kulbhushan Jadav who was working legally in Chah Bahar in Iran has been sentenced to death in Pakistan and created more ripples in India. Iran has made no public statement of defence on Jadhav.
Trump is a ‘change man’ with ‘Make USA Great Again’ just like PM Modi is too, with what IDF calls a Sagar Manthan to make ‘India Great’, and both look for people’s support with one party rule to succeed. PM Modi may wing to USA and Israel as President Trump is keen to make a new Pivot and a South Asia policy, as NSA McMaster hinted. India is USA’s strongest strategic partner, supplying over $ 13 bill of military hardware with Israel a No 3 supplier. USA and Israel co-operate on Defence sales India is being wooed by Russia also.
There are warts too. President Trump is reviewing USA’S ‘lifting of sanctions on Iran’, which may endanger India like USA’s Trump’s HIBI restrictions.. BJP’s Ministers of Commerce and Finance in USA say India will table objections and may even reciprocate restrictions. The future looks rosy and challenging too, with world economy perking to 3.5 % growth, India zooming at 7.2%. But China will grow $ 900 bill on 6.8% growth on $ 12 trill GDP and India only $ 250 bill at 7.2% ON $ 2.5 Trill GDP. APPX.
India’s ‘Bette Noir’ is Pakistan, with do or die ambitions in Afghanistan with Taliban still strong in the South and Helmand with fresh massive attacks on Afghan Army in Mazar-I-Sharif in the North as Taliban and War Lords are loaded with drug money, in record crops. Recent killing of 150 Afghan army by just 10, and 50 in a hospital happened after USA dropped the MOAB on the eve of NSA McMaster’s visit to Afghanistan. USA knows peace is not easy but President Trump means business, not only in Afghanistan, but in trouble spots as well, as USS Carl Vinson Task Force showed its teeth to North Korea’s IL-Jong.
India has to appreciate Pakistan is theoretically governed by a Civil Government under a dodgy PM Nawaz Sharrif who is under investigation, but Pakistan’s foreign and anti- India policy is controlled by the Army Chief Gen Bajwa with strict oversight by his 9 Corps Commanders and the Nuclear Strategic Force Commander (SFC). The Army just became stronger as PM Sharrif is nervous about his fate in Army’s hands, with his and family investments reported in UK’s Daily Mail which look dubiously arranged.
The 9 Corp Commanders of Pakistan control the ISI too, and its dirty tricks department, which skillfully directs Social Media ( Face Book, U Tubes, TV Shows and Articles and Twitter) to advantage with calibrated criticism of the Army being kosher, but in India Social Media is becoming a challenge for the BJP Government which has a different view of democracy, and RSS equates Nationalism with Hindutva that Indians will have to adjust to for good governance. Uttar Pradesh under a Hindutva leader is a shining example as he is cleaning up the state.
The argumentative liberal Indian will have to put a ‘tikka’ and be less argumentative, and it may work, as it has worked in many countries for development, and Government can take decisions without debate. The population will have to bear some inconvenience for swifter development. PM Modi showed it with Demonet, and deserves credit, and Indians may have to trust him as BJP/RSS are set for a one party rule and need support. BJP is strong on Political Intelligence and in USA Russia is being blamed for using political intelligence interference in the Presidential elections. That is a subject worth debate in Indian Think Tanks.
PM Modi has wisely used digital and social media to explain his development plans, but with cheap smart phones and service providers India’s youth (who visit porn sites), it will not be easy for Government to control Social media as less educated have become adept to use internet. Social Media can mislead; like the picture of a man tied to an Army jeep in Srinagar on 9th April in Budgam to save CRPF lives which spread like wild fire. India may see some stricter laws as PM admitted on Civil Services Day without mincing words.
The Army silently bears an unnecessary brunt by separatist Kashmiris and PDP-BJP turf battles with no immediate support from MOD, though AG Rohatgi rightly said a FIR against a 35 RR Unit was null and void! Voters kept away in Kashmir’s valley , not a good sign.
BJP supported by RSS runs top down, and few take initiative which system is a trait of Brahmanism and Karma in our Hindu DNA explained in many books and Indians Why We Are What We Are. India’s military will also have to adjust as a Jawan complained about quality of food on social media and it became a major issue, with PM ordering an inquiry, as he is kept well informed from various sources. Egalitarianism in the police, military and civil service will have to fade.
On security, the Pakistan-China nexus needs to be faced by India as even previous NSA Menon has cautioned that CPEC is illegal on India soil. It is evident both PM Modi as USA’s strongest partner and President Trump are on the same page to take on China and a new Dalai Lama from India and passports to Tibetans in exile in India are being considered. Both are Red Flags being shown to China which wants to rename places with Tibetan names in Arunachal it claims.
On Iran , Chah Bahar is India’s link to Afghanistan and CAR and reply to China’s Gwadar but dictatorial Iran wants a bigger say in Chah Bahar and will make India pay. The Iranian Government too is authoritative. It has issued guidelines for next month election debates, telling candidates they are not allowed to “blacken the image of the country… or the actions of the executive, administrative, legislative or judicial bodies”.
Gen McMaster was USA’s Cdr in Afghanistan. He came a calling to India after Afghanistan and Pakistan and met PM Modi and NSA AK Doval, and invited PM Modi to meet President Trump soonest. He said USA is concerned that Russia, China and Pakistan are getting closer and looks to co-operation. McMaster has probably never heard of Sagar Manthan, but would have been briefed of changes in India.
McMaster and analysts need to study one of the most celebrated myths of Hindu Gods ( which Hindutva follows with reverence to Ram and hence the Temple on Babri Masjid). Hindus revel in the extraction of Amrit (Nectar) the drink of immortality (For Political power) by the Gods (BJP and Affiliates) from the churning of the seas by punishing the Assuras (Devils) which are evils ( Corruption, curtail of choices and liberal democracy).
It is the era of authoritarian leaders like Trump, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Putin, Le PENN and Theresa May and many leaders are attempting to Make their Nation Great with more power in their hands and even re –think EU’s future and immigration policies and immigrants behavior. The world may see some hate against immigrants which are surfacing.
India has grown under PM Modi in three years and needs support, just as one tries, “ Fair and Lovely “! A few years of ‘danda’ may help growth and reduce poverty and some strong surgical actions may see India rise sooner on the world stage and IOR. Shan No Varuna.