USA- PART 2—POT POURI ABOUT TRUMP & INDIA & PM MODI — AMERICANS ADMIT INDIANS ARE THE MOST INTELLIGENT/ HARDWORKING & CLEVER (CHATUR) INFLUENTIAL GROUP IN USA ! BUT WILL THAT HELP STRATEGIC AUTONOMY FOR INDIA ? SO INDIA WAITS FOR 2 PLUS 2 ?

Ranjit B Rai

This IDF post  is about India’s critical  geo-strategic and economic challenge to face USA’s sanctions and begs the question,  will Strategic  Autonomy that PM Modi desires be possible, for India ? The answer lies  in President Trump’s mood which PM Modi has stoked by inviting him to Republic day 26th Jan, 2019 .

After  PM Modi’s off  the record chats with Xi Jinping in Wuhan to maintain peace post Doklam and exchange of films etc, the space maps show consolidation by Chinese, a road to the  Dosa canal below the  Jhamperi  Ridge which Bhutan claims, but can do little, and beefing up of communication facilities, and planes and UAVs at Shigatse airbase. So China  watches  what India will do about Doklam and Trump’s sanctions on Russia and Iran  that US Congress and EU were  not in favour of as members of JCPOA. But EU has succumbed.  Will India do too ? It is a Hobson’s choice. Continue reading

LESSONS FROM AMERICA PART 2 -WHAT PEOPLE THINK OF USA & TRUMP & INDIA & PM MODI & HOW AMERICA RUNS — INDIANS ARE THE MOST INTELLIGENT ARGUMENTATIVE HARDWORKING CLEVER (CHATUR) PEOPLE IN AMERICANS’ CALCULUS— ! WILL STRATEGIC AUTONOMY SUCCEED ?

Ranjit B Rai 

IDF post  includes snippets  about American history and India to appreciate   how both progressed to ask will Strategic  Autonomy succeed with China as the Elephant in the room. 

USA and India today stand in a world moving away from multilateralism  to bilateralism in  trade and foreign policy led by USA. Two security blocks are forming with USA, Japan  and a  poorer NATO on one side and a rich China and Russia and Pakistan and nuclear North Korea on the other with a  Trade war of sanctions and tariffs let loose by President Trump, for India too. 

 President  Trump wants to trump China and Russia,  by damaging their  economy  but China’s capability to do business and manufacturing has matured and the $ 13 trill  economy will creep and  grow to challenge USA’s $ 20 trill. World growth will suffer as USA turns in ward to grow it’s own economy and will soon come to terms with China and EU as he heads to Russia on 16th July to make a deal with Putin. He knows EU depends on sanctioned Russian oil and gas with increased prices, and Russia’s military power  is rising. The FIFA cup showed it is capable !  IDF does not believe in PPP in a globalised world.  Continue reading

RICH & STABLE UAE HAS STEALTHILY BECOME A WESTERN IOR MARITIME POWER GOADED BY FRANCE & SAUDI ARABIA—WEST ASIA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE—IT IS INDIA’S OIL LIFE LINE — WAR THERE WILL HIT INDIA & IS TRUMP CAUSING IT ? IS CHINA A PLAYER THAT INDIA NEEDS ? Part One.

Ranjit B Rai
The object of this post is to analyse a major strategic sea change that has stealthily taken place in the last five  years in the Western Indian Ocean Region (IOR)  where United Arab Emirates (UAE)  with a modern military flying potent planes and sailing warships (many  trained by India and Pakistan), with deep pockets and as India’s largest trading partner (Indian investments and workers)  has quietly  become a MARITIME Power in Western IOR with bases in Socotra and Aden in Yemen, and Berbera and Djibouti and Assab in Somaliland/Eritrea Ethiopia  and an air base in Somaliland.  Indian Navy OR media has not commented. Continue reading

SMELL THE ROSES – INDIA’S STATUS IN USA’S CALCULUS IS NOT AS HIGH AS WE THINK ! WITH 2 PLUS 2 POSTPONED NIKKI HALEY TOLD INDIA ALL MUST CO-OPERATE ON IRAN SANCTIONS—INDIA LOOKS TO UAE & SEYCHELLES FOR BASES ?

Ranjit B Rai

This is a letter Ex America at a time in history when India is on the rise in what is dubbed as a Maritime Century. India’s geography, its intelligent population, its democratic ideals and its nuclear and fine military are its assets. Its economy is still nascent in comparison to USA, China, ASEAN and the West with restrictive policies that hinder Infrastructure and growth. But over 75 million are richer than Western Middle class, which gives India an aura of richness- sans manufacturing. Indians are now world travelers.

IDF had mulled over this Analysis awaiting Nikki Haley’s visit and 2 Plus 2 meet as discussions in USA revealed, “ USA has never allowed any nation ‘Strategic Autonomy’ that India professes is written in its foreign policy. Think this over with China, West Asia, Iran, Japan, Korea and the Cold War and even Pakistan in view.” IDF smelt the roses. Continue reading

IS THE TALIBAN WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PAKISTAN’S ISI & THE HAQQANI DRUG NETWORK THE ANSWER TO AN INTERIM SOLUTION IN AFGHANISTAN ? HAS INDIA’S OPPOSITION TO A TALIBANI PAKISTAN SOLUTION DERAILED ALL ATTEMPTS ?

Ranjit B Rai

This is a letter from America after President Trump has done a deal with Kim Jong Un. It  was the talk at the FDR Library and was asked why India and Pakistan cannot do such a peace deal.

IDF was stumped and answered that its not easy and it is connected with Pakistan’s Army  with China nowAfghansistan. Eyebrows were raised so IDF had to explain.

 Leaders with strategy can do wonders,  even if peace  be for the short term,  but wonders happen only after a strategy is devised and followed to the hilt. Businesses live by strategy. India is still groping  for a strategy to deal with Pakistan as many and even Rand predict Pakistan  will fail by 2025, the way it is going.  India feels it can  wear Pakistan  down. Time means little in India.

This is also wishful thinking and IDF has to meet  one who can predict more that 5 years and  China is an elephant in Pakistan’s room, that India has done a peace deal with on the borders. This gives respite to CPEC on the border is the Chinese view. Continue reading

LETTER FROM AMERICA-WHO ASK IS IF USA/QUAD WITH FRANCE & UK ARE BELLWETHERS FOR INDIA’S CLOSE RELATIONS & EFFECT ON PAKISTAN IRAN & RUSSIA WITH CHINA THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM ? IDF SAYS ONLY MAY 2019 WILL TELL !

Ranjit B Rai 

This post must begin with Henry Kissinger’s quote, “India and USA will have  relations like a married couple, who can neither divorce nor get along,”  and IDF adds,  but do have  to bed each other  from time to time.  Even the brilliant strategist Brzezinski from Columbia University agreed when he heard the slogan GARIBI HATAO but no strategy by Congress which made Indians poor. 

US AID , PL-480 Title 1/2/3 in the 1960s and in the 80s for BEMARU states and for edible oil were co-operative but the relations soured over 1988 Shakti atomic tests. But INDIA’S help to USA IN THE  Gulf War and in the war on terror  when Indian Navy patrolled for USA in the Straits of Malacca in Operation Sagittarius  USA and India cuddled up and sanctions were lifted after Shakti. Remember ? Now with rise of China both need each other. USA to manage its power the East and India for investments and weapons  and hand holding against China till India is militarily and economically strong. 

IDF has  used the above  quote  often. Currently India and USA are in the same bed but  this time,  as a distant married couple11,000 miles apart for years.   Internet makes them neighbours.  Continue reading

USA HAS “JAALIED” INDIA IN TO THE INDO PACIFIC QUAD TO CONTAIN CHINA & SANCTIONED INDIA’S FRIENDS– IRAN & RUSSIA—SO PM MODI’S GAVE A SERMON AT SHANGRI LA ‘FOR DIVINITY PEACE COOPERATION & DIALOGUE—–SAMVAAD WITH CHINA ’

Ranjit B Rai

Prime Minister Modi has trained with the secretive Hindu  RSS over decades as a communicator, and graduated in distant studies.  Very little is known of his private life but he enjoys delivering sermons and knows he is a great orator. Difficult to know where he comes from,  as he sold tea and rose ! He works with no holidays and has no family living with him.

PM Modi  was in Singapore on a three day visit from 31st May after eking out a maritime base in Sabang in Indonesia from President Joko Widodo and meeting PM Mahatir in Malaysia, all for close maritime  co-operation as the net security provider(NSP) in the IOR, which  irks China, and Indonesia has reservations.

The are no NSP  rules  and Navy rejected Sri Lanka’s Code of Conduct (COC)  for IOR as China sponsored, though five IOR nations supported COC on the ASEAN  Model for co-operation. PM Modi lauded ASEAN in Singapore and asked all to emulate, so why not COC ?  Continue reading

AFTER 4 YEARS IN POWER INDIA’S PAKISTAN POLICY & ART 370 REMAIN THE BJP/RSS’s DILEMMA & AND HAS BECOME ARMY’S CHALLENGE IN THE NATURE OF AN UNTAMED BEAST IN KASHMIR—CAN OUR FINE ARMY HELP TAME A POITCAL BEAST ? IDF SAYS THE JURY IS OUT ON THIS !

Ranjit B Rai

This analysis is sparked by two very interesting comments on IDF’s posts on the fine Indian Army’s restraint in the  Cease Fire in Kashmir, saying once again the Indian Army Commanders on LOC  in 2018 are  fighting with one arm tied,  as Army  is told every time the Government has no strategy, except in this case  ‘MU TORA JAWAB’ by the Army and Para Forces under separate Commands, Communications,  Commendations and Intelligence  (3CI)  and reminding Pakistan to vacate POK.  Water is flowing over rocks on LOC with legal Art 370 few understand as a promise to Kashmiris who forced  Hindus out and some left for better pastures !

Both these challenges of BJP have become the Army’s 24×7 responsibilities short of war in absence of orders  to take  actions like Israelis do in Gaza  to gain territory and quell Palestinians in Israel,   or even in Lebanon or Syria with no questions asked.  UN only  makes noises .   Russians did it to take it’s Cremea from Ukraine. Nuclear war is a worry for India but lacks  lack an alternate  strategy, so Army actions are tactical  and sacrificing on both sides !

 First spark to explain this post  is that 44 Uniformed souls have been lost  this year, many civilians killed and displaced  and Pakistan seems to have taken advantage of the BJP Government’s Cease Fire driven  to placate Muslims during Ramzan and Hindus for the Amarnath Yatra, temporarily reducing the dynamism  of the MU TORA JAWAB.   Continue reading

CHINA’S H-6K LANDS IN SCS’S TOURISTY WOODY – SHANDONG SAILS AS CHINA PLANS MINING NEAR ARUNACHAL TO POPULATE AREA FOR ITS CLAIMS—CHINA’S STRATEGY IS TO LEAD A BI-POLAR WORLD & RISE HARMONIOUSLY WITH INDIA BUT BE AN IOR POWER VIA CPEC – PM MODI – MEETS PUTIN AFTER USA SANCTIONS RUSSA & IRAN & CAASTA—–WHAT LIES AHEAD ?

Ranjit B Rai

PM Modi has returned from the resort of Sochi after an informal meet with President Putin at his request like with Xi Jinping in Wuhan in world changes, caused by President Trump.

In four years PM Modi has traveled to near 50 countries, like an NRI does, variedly hugged leaders, received hundreds with Chai (No liquor not even Asha) not taken Day’s leave as he is bereft of family, dressed nattily to make Indians proud and led India’s foreign affairs as ‘a personally driven and RSS planned policy’, to USA’s delight in what IDF calls- the Honeymoon period. It was consummated.

The marriage has to now survive and make babies. All marriages go through good and bad times. India has gained immensely with $ 15 bill military toys, technology, FDI and standing as the key to QUAD. No India—– no QUAD ? Russia and China know that ?

Hence United States has placed many eggs in India’s role in the newly coined Indo-Pacific aimed at containing China. India in return got support for NSG the last hitch, for acting as a counterbalance against China and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But IDF asks, does Trump administration’s policies on Iran, Afghanistan, trade and climate change in sync with India’s circumstances of poverty. If there is a conflict or differences between China and India, as on CPEC through POK will India have to face the pressures from China alone, as at Doklam. The worry is India runs in compartments.

Continue reading

LOOKING BACK — INDIA PRIVATELY CELEBRATED EX PRIME MINISTER RAJIV GANDHI’S DEATH ANNIVERSARY 21st MAY —IDF TABLES MILITARY EXTRACTS FROM THE BOOK “INDIANS WHY WE ARE WHAT WE ARE. ” Manas ISBN 81-7049-080-4

Ranjit B Rai

With BJP-RSS in power and heavily divided politics with etiquette and history in short supply (Papers are not released), the death anniversary of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was privately celebrated by the Family at Rajghat on 21st with loyalists. No Ekta Day ! India’s apolitical Military must accept it is more a political India which may see strains for senior ranks.

But what concerns IDF is Rajiv Gsndhi’s legacy on the Military and that lies in the Bofors Scandal actions and files that stalled modernization which hurts today and the unfortunate foray in to Sri Lanka in OP Pawan 1987-91 when 1400 Olive Green lost their souls.

In the book cited above both are explained in Chapters but Op PAWAN needs study by the Armed Forces with original papers which must be released to learn lessons, as History seems to be Repeating itself as it does, in J &K. Next door Pakistan has become a Rabid Emboldened Nation supported by China’s CPEC for China’s strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region. China feels India’s Net Security Provider excludes China from the Security Structure in IOR and now by a QUAD. Can India get back POK and hurt CPEC …without military action is the question Armed Forces and NSA must have studied. Continue reading