IDF’s NAVY WEEK REPORT –INDIA’S NAVY IS DELIVERING ON A SHOE STRING BUDGET BUT HOW LONG IS THE BIG QUESTION—CNS SPEAKS OUT AGAIN NAVY’S BUDGET IS 13% OF DEFENCE BUDGET DOWN FROM 18% !

Ranjit B Rai

Navy week just ended and this is an IDF Report.

With poor media coverage, INDIANS who have a low respect for research or history did not recall the fourteen day 1971 December war when Navy’s Osa Class missile boats with P-15 radar guided missiles sank five Pakistan Navy ships on 4th and 8th December nights off Karachi in Op Trident and Op Python respectively. Many died.

Navy set Kemari oil tanks on fire again in Op Python on 8th Dec by firing the first missile directly over the sea (Lt Cdr V Jerath in INS Vinash studied why last missile hit the beach in Op Trident), after Indian Air Force Hunters had attacked Kemari on 4th December morning from OCU in Jamnagar under Wing Cdr Don Conquest, Sqn Ldrs SN Medhekar, PK Mukherjee and Flt Lt SK Gupta (From log books) by happenstance and Pakistanis from Burmah Shell had put out the fire. In Op Trident the last missile fired fell on the KARACHI beach as the radar locked on to land and Cmde Gopal Rao Task Force Commander (OTC) in Op Trident wrote about it in USNIPS. In Op Cmde KMV (Curly) Nair was OTC on INS Trishul as he had just taken over from then Capt RH Tahiliani who was in plaster as he had fallen off a horse riding with Adm MP Awati. Nair called it his luck in war to get a Vrc as Tahiliani had worked up Trishul.


All above is in the book Warring Nuclear Navies—-India Pakistan, and in Pakistan’s official history of the Navy. India has not officially released the official history of 1962, 1965 or 1971 wars or given access to papers or the Henderson Brooks Report but reports from actors and writers like IDF but IDF tries to ensure veracity.

In the East in 1971, the aircraft carrier Vikrant’s Seahawk and Alize planes attacked Pakistani air fields and targets on the coast to hasten Pakistan’s surrender on 16th December. The Army had moved rapidly with Mukhti Bahini support as guides and intelligence agents to Dacca, signifying importance of Intelligence which Navy used in Op Pawan also in the book quoted. Army lost 1400 souls …..Navy none or a boat. After 1971 and Op Pawan Navy has not looked back but sea blindness prevails

In India with a capital 800 km from the sea. Rightly the nation celebrated Navy Week and Navy Day on 4th December and PM Modi attended with the President this time and this year the motto is, Indian Navy-Silent-Strong and Swift.

The Navy has since become a builder’s Navy but a small effective maritime force with 122 warships, 16 submarines which includes two nuclear submarines and 200 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs, which accomplishes big deeds with laurels for the nation in humanitarian and relief operations, diplomatic visits which even support Prime Minister’s visits to island states, and takes part in over twenty international and national exercises with élan. The Navy took part in the Kargil war with Op Talwar prepared to blockade Pakistan, and is part of the Triad with nuclear submarine INS Arihant with 750 km K-15 nuclear tipped missiles.

The path of Navy’s growth began when a Leander design was licensed from Yarrow Shipyard Ltd in Scotland and Vickers Ltd to build the 3,000 ton Leander named Nilgiri, in India at Mazagon Docks Ltd(MDL). On 23rd October, 1968 Prime Minister Indira Gandhi applied ‘Kum Kum’ on Nilgiri’s stern and launched her at MDL, and on 3rd June 1972 she commissioned INS Nilgiri with latest sonars, a twin hydraulic 4.5 inch gun and Seacat AA missiles which shot down three Royal Navy pilotless target aircraft (PTA) off Singapore and set a record. TheNavy’s shipyards and dockyards imbibed modern naval technology and best ship building practices, and set up a Naval Design Directorate to design indigenous platforms, and established the Weapons Electronics Engineering Systems Establishment(WEESE) in in private houses New Delhi for R&D and self help in communications and command systems, sensors, cyber and space applications for GSAT-7 satellite. Nilgiri became the base design which was elongated and broadened for the next lot, and the larger Shivalik class frigates and Delhi class destroyers that are now armed with supersonic BrahMos missiles and Barak-8 missiles and Command Control Systems manufactured in India.

The Navy had set a target to become a 200 ship and 400 aircraft strong navy by 2027 and the Navy does have a good order book of around ( 4 Type 15Bs, 7 Shivalik 17As, 4 latest Krivacks, 4 Scorpenes, 4 Survey ships, 1 ASW Corvette), and eight Boeing 737 P8i maritime reconnaissance aircraft with Mk 84 torpedoes and Mk 48 torpedoes as work horses have joined. However in the last two years the Navy has only been able to commission two delayed Scorpene submarines and three small LCUs and decommissioned over six platforms. Orders for three training ships at ABG and five Catamaran Survey ships at Alcock Ashdown have failed as both yards have closed. Five Naval Offshore Patrol Vessels at Reliance Naval Defence are languishing. Ships on order in PSU yards have escalated in costs with delays and Navy’s forays worldwide and inflation and rise in cost of fuel have put pressure on the revenue budget and the capital budget. Navy’s plans for a third aircraft carrier has been shelved and order for four LPDs withdrawn.

Indian Navy is therefore celebrating Navy Week 2019 with mixed feelings. India’s Navy was ranked fourth in the world but this year it has fallen to fifth position after USA, Russia, China and Japan with UK and France, as Japan has added Soryu class submarines with lithium batteries for longer underwater endurance than with Stirling AIP, and converting two 20,000 ton Hyuga helicopter carriers to operate F-35C fighters as aircraft carriers do, and added defensive air launched anti ship missiles.

Navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh confirmed that the Navy’s budget had come down to 13% from 18% of the Defence budget, and added, “we are moving at the pace we are capable of”, when questioned about the expansion of the PLA Chinese Navy he said they move at the pace they can. The Chief stated few PLA(Navy) ships are always in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) but assured the nation that, “the Navy is fully prepared to deal with national security challenges”, and cited how a Chinese research vessel had been turned out of India’s 200 mile EEZ as per UNCLOS 1982. He disclosed the Navy will take over the second aircraft carrier Vikrant with MiG-29K fighters in 2021 (possibly for flying trials of Mig-29K) and be operational by 2022, which is making progress at Cochin Shipyard Ltd, and reiterated Navy’s need for three aircraft carriers.

In the 21st Century it is witness to the Indo Pacific unfolding itself as the strategically important water body with sea lanes that carry valuable and increasing world trade, but the region is also witness to increasing security challenges. China has claimed the South and East China Seas from its rightful owners to possess a larger EEZ and is attempting to dislodge US influence and interests in the region. It is also predicted that the region will be an area of competition between India dubbed the elephant, and China dubbed the dragon but whether it will be peaceful or conflict laden cannot be assured.

In March 2015 Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated India’s policy as, “we seek a future for the Indian Ocean that lives up to the name of ‘SAGAR’-Security And Growth for All in the Region.” Two years earlier on 13th August 2013 Prime Minister dubbed the Indian Navy as the Net Security Provider(NSP) in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR). The contours of NSP and SAGAR place a heavy responsibility on the Navy with a Blue Economy and to show the Flag as India’s risen power needs, but China wants to be a resident Navy in IOR to safe guard its sea lanes and sees India in the US camp and heading to a QUAD.

China’s PLA Navy controls the captive ports at Gwadar in Pakistan, a base in Djibouti and leased Humbantoata, the realisation has to yet to dawn that India’s maritime postures, capabilities and policies in the Indian Ocean and Indo Pacific will weigh heavily for India’s destiny in this century. The Indian Navy undoubtedly needs more attention, healthier budgets and long term plans, as it is a capital intensive three dimensional force of quality, but lacks quantity with adequate nuclear and conventional submarines and warships including the mandated three aircraft carriers, to be called a true Blue Water Navy behooving the size .and rising status of India in the comity of nations. The Indian Navy is delivering on a shoe string budget but for how long is the big question. Shan No Varuna may Lord Varuna Bless Our Navy.

ECONOMY & BLACK MONEY TALK & ‘UNITY IN DIVERSITY’ ARE BACK AS INDIA & CHINA COMPETE IN IOR AND PAKISTAN &TRUMP WANTS INDIA’S NAVY TO JOIN (QUAD) PATROLS AGAINST CHINA & FINALLY IDF ASKS HAVE ISRAELIS HELPED SPY ON INDIANS ?

As a preamble in this Pot Pouri post  IDF must praise Prime Minister Modi for a successful visit to Saudi Arabia with promises of money to invest.  India needs  a dose of investment badly. India is a gold mine for investment with a consuming population of 1.3 billion. That is why India is sought by all nations and even World Bank to raise the world’s  lagging economy. Chancellor  Merkel is here to say so too !

IDF recounts what a Chinese Think Tanker said, “ India is a fair maiden every one wants to woo”. India must take advantage of this.

FIRST  challenge is to bring normalcy in Kashmir and though  the threat of a India-Pakistan nuclear war is remote, but if it happens it could kill more than 100 million, a study warns in  South China Morning Post of  3rd  October, in a make believe scenario. It relies on PM Imran Khan’s threats on Red Lines of Pakistan and paints a scenario, “New Delhi retaliates Pakistan’s actions on terror by sending tanks into the part of Indian Occupied Kashmir (POK) controlled by Pakistan. Nuclear Armageddon would be only the beginning”.

Continue reading

INDIA’S CHALLENGE IS TO BALANCE US & CHINA & PLACATE RUSSIA AFTER ARTICLE 370 & PRESIDENT XI’s VISIT & ACCEPT THAT CHINA’s CPEC/BRI INTERESTS TAKES IT CLOSER TO PAKISTAN/FATF & AGHANISTAN AS USA STRUGGLES TO TAME CHINA’S TECHNOLOGY THRU TRADE—UPHILL TASK !

This is an IDF Deepavali ‘State of Affairs’ pot pouri analysis of India’s external challenges with an accent on security and maritime issues after abrogation of Article 370 and PM Modi’s informal summit with President Xi Jinping at Mallampuram.

The preamble to this post has to be Internal as External affairs of a nation have a connect, and suddenly India’s internal challenges of Kashmir (vis a vis Pakistan and China), a cascading Economy and the Brand of the BJP Government as a Government with a Difference seems  a bit dented. This will heavily occupy the Government internally.

The results of the Maharashtra and Haryana elections came as a unexpected blow to  the powerful BJP & RSS combine, and the tilted media, just as the FATF result surprised India’s MEA. Pakistan escaped the Black List by garnering 3 needed votes provided by Malaysia (Mahathir) and Turkey (Erdogan) and China. Two nations have been punished by stopping Palm Oil imports; and cancelling a three tanker contract at MOU stage to Turkey and a visit by PM Modi respectively.

This may be a blessing. Navy needs more tankers for its high tempo operations and has looked to Italy, Korea and Turkey despite L&T assuring that if provided with a design that Navy has operated with Fincantieri built INS Shakti/ Deepak,  L&T can build tankers. The long Agusta Westland witch hunt against Italy has hurt Indian economy and Navy most. By BJP Black Listing Finmeccanica, Hum ne Apne pe Kulhari mar De, like Congress cancelled the HDW contract to hurt itself and Navy in the 1990s.

Continue reading

12 ADDITIONAL DIESEL SUBMARINES RFP OR 4 NUCLEAR SSNs SANTIONED BY DAC—WHICH IS BETTER ?? CNS LAMENTS NAVY IS DOWN TO 13% OF BUDGET FROM 18% & INDIAN ECONOMY IS DOWN TOO ! IAF HAS GOBBLED $ 13 BILLION BUT BECOME POWERFUL—–PETER GAVE TO PAUL !

IDF VIEWS Indian military jumping up a notch on the world scale by 2020-21 and IDF salutes the IAF on its 87th birthday which displayed its might in clear skies at Hindon. But the Chiefs, PSOs there, and MOD in South Block should be worried as Indian economy is down and no money means no new big defence spending. Yet if you cut your coat better to India’s military cloth much can be done with tri service energy and weaponry. It is said NSA and soon a CDS will do that in earnest but time does not wait in this era. Bringing normalcy in Kashmir is consuming energy of decision makers as Trump confirms IDF view that USA China trade war is actually a technology war to throttle China and India has to decide where its stands on that. PM Modi will discuss that with President Xi Jinping in Mallampuram. The world and IDF is watching with hopes of ‘Acche Din with China’, to settle Pakistan down in a India China deal when leaders meet. India needs investment too and China needs a market! Can the two meet ?

This then is an overall IDF Dusshera Vijaydhasmi greetings with a Puja analysis of how many conventional diesel and how many nuclear submarines India should aspire for as building submarines is time consuming and it is based on the premise that France, UK and USA have no conventional diesel submarines—and China and Russia are balancing their Order of Battle (ORBAT) with less diesel submarines and exporting them to Bangla Desh (Mings) and Pakistan (Yuans) and Thailand and Kilos to Vietnam and Myamar and increasing their own number of nuclear submarines. Navy did a coup for Russia as the Kilo INS Sindhukriti with Indian crew is getting ready to be given to Myanmar. Good ‘out of the box’ thinking Navy is known for !

Hence today Pakistan Navy is not so much of a concern in case of a war as much is the PLA(Navy) in the years ahead dominating India’s parish. The P8is have come as a boost to the Indian Navy’s power with Mk 84 Harpoons and Mk 48 Torpedoes and the BrahMos and Barak 8 LR SAMs and M/F Star radars on ships with reliable gas turbines that do not fail. The Mig-29Ks are settling in on INS Vikramaditya. The IAF with induction of Rafales and its IACC and AWACS with slaved BVR Meteor 130 km and Scalp 300 km .8 Mach cruise missiles will see IAF as a juggernaut in the air. This is time the synergy of India’s Air Sea Strategy needs thinking by both services as Army seems confident with its IBGs concept tried out in Exercise Him Vijay. EAM Jaishankar Subrahmanyam has come as a breath of fresh air in Foreign policy as that is in his DNA. India needs that in Defence too.

Continue reading

IOR NATIONS LAMENT THERE ARE NO GUIDELINES FOR INDIA’S NSP & SAGAR & THE INDIA-USA LEMOA IS KEPT SECRET—THE NAVY HAS INDO PACIFIC RESPONSIBILTY TO ELABORATE

This is an IDF ANALYSIS of the Indo Pacific which is unfolding as the strategically most important water body with sea lanes that carry valuable and increasing world trade, but the region is also witness to increasing security challenges. China’s displayed it’s capabilities on 1st October with a Parade IDF dubs as ‘China’s Second Coming Party’ after the Olympics. Only Hong Kong protests and falling economy are worrisome.

China lacks maritime geography and is determined to claim the South and East China Seas from its rightful owners to possess a larger rich Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and dislodge US interests and influence from the Indo-Pacific with maritime power. It is also predicted that the region will be an area of competition between India(the elephant), and China(the dragon), but whether it will be peace or conflict between the two, cannot be assured. Gen JJ Singh has elaborated on this and offered a border deal of sorts with China in his researched book, “The McMAHON Line”,(Harper Collins) but issues have been overtaken by the abrogation of Article 370.

In a change, Japan’s Researcher Akio Tanhara on 4th October at IIC admitted in a slide that JAPAN too has realized the pendulum has shifted to Eurasia from USA, so Japan may co-operate with China in selected BRI projects to provide Infrastructure goods for sake of Japan’s economy. As Groucho Marx would say, ”It’s the economy stupid”.

This is where Wuhan(2018) and the coming meeting of PM Modi and President Xi Jinping at Mahabalipuram (11 Oct) kicks in. The flip side is, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) nations worry about what deals India makes and there are no issued guidelines for India’s Navy as the Net Security Provider(NSP) in IOR ordained by PM Manmohan Singh on 13th Aug.2013 or PM Modi’s call for SAGAR(Security and Growth for All) and LEMOA with USA which is secret. Sri Lanka wants to join LEMOA.

The Pathfinder Foundation in Sri Lanka led by Admiral Collambage and team under directions of the President Srisena consulted major IOR nations and scripted a ‘Code of Conduct’ in the IOR, titled Concerning The Repression Of Piracy, Armed Robbery Against Ships, and Illicit Maritime Activity in The Indian Ocean’, and offered it to the twenty one members of IORA to be signatories, but as Pakistan a close ally of China is not an IORA member, and Pathfinder has Chinese partner Think Tanks like Indian Think Tanks have, India is diffident to even look at it. Pathfinder has offered India ownership to modify as all fear the consequences in the China India competition in the IOR, more evident after 370, as China has sided Pakistan which may never use its nuclear weapons but always threatens. This got RM Rajanth Singh to review the No First Use(NFU) meaning.

India has risen as a military and economic power, with a large potential attractive virgin market. It is that, that President Trump is wooing as he knows India has a pragmatic and decisive effusive leader in his friend PM Modi that can temper China. So he talks of co-operation in security and a trade deal and calls PM Modi the “Father of the Nation”, and announces military exercises like Tiger Triumph first time heard in Houston over Howdy and the QUAD to rope India into a formal alliance with Japan and Australia. Trump always puts his cards on the table for America First and India figures high.

China and other nations also covet India’s juicy market and IDF many times heard the Deputy PM of Singapore Admiral Teo Chee Hean in the 1990s say to every Indian dignitary visiting Singapore, “A Benign Strategic Relationship is Great for Trade”. Today tiny Singapore is a big player with trade hitting $18 bill and security relations are the closest with a confidential strategic pact and 27 unbroken Simbexes. France as a Riparian IOR state has offered outside support to QUAD and its bases in the IOR to India, and UK has joined the chorus. For France that possibly counted for the 36 Rafale deal inflated  to $ 8 billion to support India on nuclear plants, but Areva that L&T was talking to, went bust.

On QUAD China had warned India that QUAD is like ganging up against China when former President Pranab Mukherjee was the Defence Minister. The provocations was QUAD nations including Australia and Singapore exercised in Malabar. Australia and Singapore were put out in 2007 but are knocking for entry. India has risen since and China and USA are in a trade war. India has to think how it can gain. In China leaders listen to Intellectuals who help economic decision making and are working on China’s falling economy and strategy with India.

IDF is tempted to what IDF learnt after exiting Navy at IIM(A). In any transaction IIM teaches you must be clear who is the ‘Vendor and who is the Customer’ and act accordingly. Vendors humour the customer and some say Customer is King (India is No 1 importer of defence wares). Trump looks to the market of India and PM Modi is balancing defence deals between USA and Russia. Trump has sanctioned Russia and Iran to get India’s large oil and gas market as USA has become a net energy exporter and gas prices have fallen. Price of oil is a crucial factor for India and China’s economy.

Two decades ago USA behaved like a vendor to the big Chinese customer market. China took full advantage. USA used cheap Chinese labour to set up US industries in China to sell and export. China grew in double digits and invested its surplus in USA. China bought technology, imbibed technology and grabbed technology by means fair and foul in Make in China, even from Russia and Ukraine to become a leader in many technologies. Hence the USA CHINA trade war, which is a technology war too. Huawei and ZTE are banned by USA. Xi Jinping may discuss Huawei and such issues along with QUAD when he meets PM Modi on 11th October. Wuhan 2018 saw borders cool after Doklam stand off and Chinese PLA and Indian Army officers meet regularly now, and it is reported daily in Doklam where a road to move troops and armour is readied. India is better prepared.

As a consequence, there have been many articles and talks and conferences in Think Tanks on China and USA with foreign and Indian speakers. Chinese warn China has 17.3% of the world’s economy with 1.4 billion people and India has 2.3% of the world’s economy and 1.3 billion, so ask, “are you with the East or West without naming USA or QUAD”. NSA Doval spoke at the  Goa Maritime Conclave at Fort Aguada in Goa on 4th October to littoral Navy Chiefs on “Common Common Maritime Priorities in IOR and need for Regional Maritime Strategy”.and subjects mentioned in this posting show their relevance as Adm Columbage was present from Sri Lanka.

In view of the above the Indian Navy needs more attention, healthier budgets for long term plans, as it is a capital intensive three dimensional force of quality, but lacks quantity called, ‘A Long Grey Line of Ships’. It deserves adequate warships and nuclear ISBN/SSN and conventional submarines including three aircraft carriers and Aerial power to be called a true Blue Water Navy as RM Rajnath Singh said.

Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh recently lamented that from 18% allotted to the Navy earlier the 2019-20 Defence Budget has provided only around 13%, from the allocated Rs3.18 Lac Crores ($46 Billion). The Army has got Rs 1.67 lac crores ($23 billion), the Air Force Rs 68,949 crores($10 billion) and Navy only Rs 45,368($6.5 billion).leaving little room for new naval orders, as escalation and time delays of the 34 ordered ships has taken a toll on the Navy’s plans to be a 200 ship and 400 aircraft Navy by 2027. Navies cannot be built overnight like ‘fly in planes’ in an Air Force, or on shoe string budgets. Yet India’s Navy is coping as well as it can with 134 ships and P8I planes like ships and quality manpower, hoping it is given more funds, well aware of the major committed payments of over $12 billion in trances for the Indian Air Force.

Much maritime India will depend on India’s economy which has dipped to 6.1% as per the RBI and so has the world economy. Shan No Varuna.

AILING PRIVATE SHIPBUILDERS & DESIGNERS & OLDTIMERS BEGGED NAVY & GOVERNMENT NOT TO MISS THE TECHNO ECONOMIC MARITIME BOAT AT THE FICCI–NAVY–NMF INTERNATIONAL SHIPBUILDING SEMINAR

This is an IDF report on a well organized 25/26 July, INTERNATIONAL SHIP BUILDING SEMINAR by FICCI toiled by the Constructor officers under the Director General Naval Design DGND(Surface), Radm D M Harish in national interest this time. Earlier seminars were Navy centric.  

The suggestions were path breaking and moderated by the Navy’s Controller of Acquisitions(CWPA) Vadm AK Saxena with doyens of ship building. Two former Chiefs, Russian Minister of Industry, and many retired from Navy (IDF counted 37 in industry with lucrative jobs ) who earlier steered Navy’s Make in India from Buyer to a Builder were there to a over full hall. Overall each spoke with feeling that India is missing the Maritime money boat to rise fast on the world stage through ship building, like it lost out in the industrial regime. But that was forced. This will be a self goal.

CNS Admiral Karambir Singh, emphasised the seminar was on ‘Nation Building through Shipbuilding, a topical issue and lauded the intellectual pool of maritime experts in the hall, copying what President Jefferson said when he spoke to nation builders he had called to Monticello in Virginia who set  USA on its way. .

CNS propitious words ring loud. “The Government has plans to take our country’s economy on a trajectory to be a 5 trillion Dollar economy by 2024. I think ship-building is a sector that can contribute significantly. I’m sure several speakers today would discuss measures to spur our ship-building, especially commercial ship-building, in India” CNS called the  journey from a ‘Buyers Navy’ to a ‘Builders Navy’ as an arduous one and highlighted the plough back effect which needs replicating.

At the opening, President FICCI Sandip Somany said industry is unhappy and he rattled off trade figures. He said India has 3.4 percent of world trade but 1 percent of Shipping so explained potential of a trillion. Mr JD Patil Director L&T which builds nuclear submarines the most demanding in ship building, gave history how we have gone forward and then backward especially after gaining lot in Navy Shipbuilding. He deprecated Nomination of orders to PSUs that has strained private players. Patil was optimistic with hopes that five RFPS issued on Missile Ships (why two classes), FPVs Hovercraft  and others in strategic partnership and five more to come without details ended on a optimistic note hoping Private Players will get a bit of the cake.

JS MOD Defence Production Vijayendra was brief and listed achievements in warship building but avoided commercial ship building and said prospects are there. There lies the gap. IDF adds the Government had a repeat of building like old Niligiri planned in the 4 LPD contract to private and Government shipyards to compete. Bids came in but MOD got cold feet as Anil Ambani was involved but why not RM Rajnath Singh revive it as LPD is a national Tri Service Need to get to $ 5 trillion economy!

So IDF dubs the seminar as a “Wake up Call”, but it was the  converted speaking to the converted. Two Ministers, the Niti Ayog head of shipping and another Government head did not turn up. IDF wondered why? Was the subject daunting or were there were more pressing issues, like preparing for Man Ke Baat ! PM has hogged Radio for its reach but IDF cannot go give a sports or non political  Ship Building talk on private radio as AIR hogs Radio and has age limits. .

IDF has a suggestion . The RSS reps who advice BJP on self reliance in nation building should have been invited as they have a voice in policy and ship building needs attention urgently. A lot of private shipyard infrastructure is lying waste; and how to finance and use it came to the fore with Bankers advice in a session on financing. Ex IAS officer Mr Sandhu from KPMG spoke sense on energizing the ship building sector.

Why does IDF bring in RSS ? Navy knows the idiom that IDF as Commander Naval Academy taught wards. “You cannot change the direction of the wind (as you will compete with seasoned NDA trained officers), but you can always change the direction of your sails and attempted to groom them how to do that,” hence the RSS offer.  Nine wards became Flag Officers with ten in shipbuilding including Nuclear submarines and BrahMos and 40 of one batch are gathering in Cochin early August to relive IDF advice but this time on old age ! IDF talk will be based on Khushwant Singh’s advice and is in the novel, “An Underhand Affair, The Travails of a Dalit Girl,” on Amazon Rs 250/-.

At the seminar Navy had a crib, there is no budget. Ways of leasing, joint PSU and Commercial yard building and such were offered with the setting up of a Ship Building Development Fund and long term plans by Cmde Sujeet Samamdar with details for pay back. In any case  warship and commercial ship building as depicted in the logo has to be a  treated like a national strategy and commitment to grow, like Japan Korea and China. They looked at ship building  as a National & Naval Strategy, where it has done well. In India naval costs and delivery schedules of ships have gone hay wire. Commercial shipping will teach Navy competitiveness and how to freeze designs for the builder !

Speakers proved that If attended to, Shipbuilding and ancillary vendor partners for a maritime nation with a God provided geography given to  India, will bring about half a million direct and half a million indirect skilled jobs. Ship building has to be  an unending duty .In the economic down turn Russia and China made shipbuilders merge and China employed them in pipe line and rail building and in South China Sea and sold ships at cut prices with subsidy and their yards are reviving now with BRI and massive warship building and exports. China’s rise worries India’s Naval  Chiefs.

In USA the  Maritime Administration of USA —MARAD gives subsidy to shipping sector and  Waterman Steamship Ltd that IDF headed in India saw MARAD give the company $ 2 mill annual subsidy to employ only US seamen to compete with Japanese Korean and Chinese lines. One speaker asked why SCI bought 65 ships from Korea and China and said, “Look at Mazagon Docks which with no experience grew,  after Nilgiri in 1970s and now makes world class ships and Type 15 INS Delhi weathered a terrible cyclone with praise from Russian designers.”

INS Nilgiri was mentioned. as an example. It was the start point of the 1970s for raw Mazdocks to build big warships. IDF was part of the journey. It now makes Type 15A and Scorpenes. Cdr (L) SBN Singh Cdr (E) Dasgupta and Gunnery officer Lt Cdrs Madhvendra Singh later CNS, TASO Gulu Kumar SCO Iyer and IDF as Navigating Officer later XO were sent to UK with key sailors for six months. First Sea Lord sailed in Nilgiri for 5 hours and could not believe Indians had done it.

L&T Director Mr Jayant Patil and others reported that  Rs 1lac 35000 cr orders for ship building have been given to PSU shipyards and only Rs 9000 to private yards. So, the big debate humming through the Conference was that PSU ship yards have a back log of Rs 85000 cr of warship orders with rising costs for years to complete. Why cannot the Navy tell Government to make JVs and use the facilities with closed down yards like Reliance  ABG,  Alcock Ashdown in bankruptcy and the less employed L&T with ship lift which has built nuclear submarines like INS Arihant and delivered 37 ships in few years ahead of time. The subject of DRDO’s Arihant was taboo and the Private Public Partnership (PPP) model used for Arihant was never discussed to learn from.

Private ship designers lamented they  are not supported and asked DGND to allow use of software on ‘pay for time’ basis. It will help mutually as they cannot afford expensive digital software. Adm RM Bhatia CMD Mazdocks explained how small Korea in the 1970s saw the future seeing Japan through shipbuilding. President Pak Chung Lee (1963-79) as President took over President of the Shipbuilders Association and asked a Mr Song an MIT trained Constructor to set up shipyards and rest is history for what Korea has achieved by copying Japan and then innovating. Wikipedia says, “One of the most striking features of Asia‟s increasingly important position in the global economy is the region’s crucial role in the international shipbuilding market. Today, more than 90 per cent of the world‟s orders for new ships have been placed with Asian yards, more specifically with shipbuilders in China, Japan and South Korea.”

DRDO was absent in the seminar but a young ISRO rep gave a brilliant presentation on how ISRO has grown and the low costs of launches and of PSLVs and GSLVs and the cryogenic engine story. Moral is you need technocrats today to get the job going. Shan No Varuna.

LESSONS FROM SUBMARINE ACCIDENTS —-IDF RECALLS HOW NAVY SAVED INS CHAKRA IN 1989 VIS A VIS THE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SUB LOKSHARIK FIRE—WHAT WAS SHE DOING IN THE DEEP ARCTIC SEA FLOOR ??——-IDF REPORTS UNDERWATER COMMUNICATION CABLES ARE IN DANGER WITH CYBER ?

This is an IDF analysis of the extraordinary mission and accident of the Russian deep sea exploration nuclear submarine Loksharik AS 12 -killing 12/14 out of 25 in the Arctic, juxtaposed with the superb way Indian Navy tackled a switchboard fire on INS Chakra 1 in the 1989 off Vishakhapatnam extracted from the book Warring Navies ISBN 978-93-5156-638-0 by Ranjit B Rai . But who reads with Wikipedia set to educate the masses ?

Putin has asked defense minister Sergei Shoigu to report back personally about the AS -12 disaster, but IDF asks was it just an ordinary scientific mission? According to media reports, the AS12 submarine can possibly be used to tap into, set up or even sever underwater telecommunications cables. A local journalist first reported from Somoransk and was told to go quiet. The AS-12 is back in its naval base like Chakra limped back in 1989. Indian Navy now has two Fisher UK DSRVs to recover sailors from stranded submarines.

Continue reading

INDIA IS LUCKY –IT HOLDS THE KEY TO THE QUADRILATERAL (QUAD) SET UP BY INDIA’S NAVY WITH THE 2007 EXERCISE MALABAR- WITH 27WARSHIPS OF US-JAPAN AUSTRALIA & SINGAPORE –THE NAVIES THAT CAN MAKE UP A NEAR 1000 SHIP NAVY THE DREAM OF ADM MULLEN TO KEEP CHINA IN CHECK

G 20 showed how lucky PM Modi is. He runs India in Presidential style with unfettered power and loves adulation as an orator. India has the biggest virgin market of 1.4 bill consumers in the world and is the largest Defence importer and controls the strategy of the Indian Ocean. So Presidents Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping and PM Abe were like salesmen mouth watering and fawning over PM Modithe biggest customer at G-20. FDI has poured in anticipation of a gold rush. IDF wishes Governance well. 

This then is an IDF analysis of the critical Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which is commonly referred to as the QUAD. It has evolved as an informal grouping of United States, Japan, Australia and India, whose leaders have met at various levels for strategic talks since 2007, to China’s ire.

Continue reading

CNS ADM KARAMBIR SINGH FACES NAVY’s CHALLENGES HEAD ON & FIRES A NEEDED SALVO TO CURB ‘CHAMCHAGIRI & SHOWSHA’ & HOPE PM MODI & NSA BRING SIMILAR CHANGES AMONG OFFCIALS & AND THE POLICE FIEFDOM——PERSONAL SECURITY GUARDS & CAR CAVALCADES & MASCA (buttering) HAS GONE TO FAR

IDF analysis of the India General Signal No 002 issued by Admiral Karambir Singh as the first shot to reduce what is called Chamchagiri  (Licking in English to please seniors)which has swept in to the Indian Armed Forces and more into the politicians and bureaucracy and India’s police. The steps CNS wants Navy to follow are detailed and clear and can apply to Politicians Bureaucrats and most to India’s Police which in the last 5 years had pandered to power !

From doing away with multiple cars for the CNS during official visits to asking junior officers to be respectful but not subservient, from not lining up women and children for VIP visits to no bouquets as  presentations, Admiral Karambir Singh has issued a raft of instructions to curb ostentatious displays in the force.

Continue reading

TRUSTED 74 YEAR OLD NSA AK DOVAL RE-APPOINTED IN CABINET RANK CO TERMINUS WITH PM MODI IN BJP 2.0 -–WHAT ABOUT A CDS OR IS THERE NEED NOW IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION ?

Cmde Ranjit B Rai (Retd)

In 1977 US Secretary of Defence and nuclear physicist Harold Brown coined the definition of National Security, as ‘the ability to preserve the nation’s physical integrity and territory and to maintain its economic relations’. It was conceived more as protection against military attack and freedom to control trade, that allowed western nations to rise. Today In this globalised world we live in the age of the speed of internet with cyber tools for warfare. Today lethal conventional weapons are in the inventory of most nations and nuclear weapons are with more that the P5 nations. National leaders have to react to crises with alacrity and take urgent action with the use of appropriate intelligence, big data, weapons and diplomatic levers available to the nation.

Continue reading