DISENGAGEMENT IN LADAKH IS FACE SAVING FOR LEADERS —ESCALTION AVERTED AFTER PM MODI’S ORATORICAL WARNING ON NON EXPANSION MAKES NATIONS RALLY AGAINST CHINA’S BULLYING—-CHINA CONCEDES TO BACK AFTER NIBBLING AT PANGONG TO SAFEGUARD ITS CPEC & POK—SEE MAPS

This is a 11OO worded crisp IDF Analysis with Trishul Trident, of China overstretching as the Middle Kingdom of old, gambling India under rising Covid-19 and a slowed economy. PLA haughtily painted a CHUNG KUO(China) map at Pangong Lake and put up a tent at Patrolling Point 14 in Ladakh both in last two months on Indian side of the LAC, the scene of bloody clashes. China aims to thwart India’s advances which Chinese view as aimed to disrupt CPEC in POK and take Aksai Chin after HM Amit Shah’s statement in Parlaiment on 5th Aug, 2019 on Art 370. It set the cat against pigeons in China.

After tension and poor Intelligence analysis on Chinese build up in Ladakh, a violent face off took place between India’s ITBP on May 5th at Pangong (Tso) lake’s Northern shore at Finger 4 spur. Chinese challenged India’s claim up to Finger 8, with injuries in numbers including Army personnel, media reported. On 15th June both clashed at Patrol Point 14. India learnt Col Babu and 19 Indian brave souls lost lives which seems to have humiliated China with more dead. Col Babu could have phoned Brigade Commander for orders but like Nelson, acted to bring down a Chinese tent, when a stone hit him in the head and India’s Regimental Honour was bruised …….IDF calls it a turning point in Leadership to be honoured, like Gen Sagat Singh’s initiative at Nathu La. Massive military build up ensued eye to eye.

Continue reading

US SECRETARY MIKE POMPEO JOINS INDIA TO PUT PRESSURE ON CHINA BY PLANNING TRANSFER OF FORCES EAST FROM EUROPE CALLED HORIZONTAL ESCALATION AS VERICAL ESCALATION WITH MILITARY ACTION WOULD BE SUICIDAL & THE LAST RESORT— NO ONE DESIRES !

This is an IDF analysis on India China standoff, along with the scenario of the ground forces geographically explained on the Line of Actual Control(LAC) as on 24th June, reported by Trident Trishul by joining dots with world satellite analysts, who with Cyber operators have become crucial in Intelligence.

That is why RAW was called Research & Analysis Wing. A lot of open Analysis is now electronic. RAW has co-opted NTRO with service officers while IAF flies ARC assets like Electronic Intelligence EW equipped Photo Recce planes Eg Bombardier, and Gulf Stream/ Israeli Astra 1125 twin jet and Navy’s MR 737P8is have joined. DIPAC analyses ISRO’s satellite data. All inputs need experts to analyse and predict. The standoff is being followed by all leading Intelligence agencies and India has partners for pictures but for intentions the National intelligence has the responsibility. It has to Trust but Verify every input, and on China border it is the ITBP under Home Minister, being beefed with 50 companies.  

For India’s leadership the current face offs and tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China poses a territorial security challenge that could lead to Vertical Escalation, a sort of fighting which could light a war. Hence EAM Jai Shankar is deftly handling the diplomatic parleys with China and Russia in RIC and UN. He is batting a ‘Wait & Watch Strategy’, insisting China hark back to the 1993 LAC protocol to original sites. India is gaining world support except from Pakistan, and media reports China is thinning troops in some areas only, and not in others like a bully.

Continue reading

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF NEGOTIATIONS—BATON ARMED PLA TRIED TO SET UP PP 14 POST IN INDIA’S GALVAN RIDGE—LED TO A HAND TO HAND—IA SHOWED VALOUR —CHINA’S TRUE COLOURS OF ITS EXPANSIONIST PEACEFUL RISE WERE ON DISPLAY FOR THE WHOLE WORLD TO NOTE ! PM MODI AFFRIMS A FITTING REPLY.


This is an IDF analysis of what will be a historical ‘hand to hand savage clash’ between nuclear nations which began with a few and then a few hundred troops of the PLA and Indian Army in darkness in subzero temperatures in two narrow Galvan ridges on 15th June, 2020 evening.

Galvan valley is one of the few areas along the Line of Actual Control(LAC) where the difference in perception of the boundary between the two sides was minimal. China provoked it on an unsuspecting Bihar Battalion Commander Col Santosh Babu and his unarmed men, who walked up to stop them to set up a Post. Evidence shows China planned it, despite agreements not to.  

 www.indiadefenceforum.com has leaned on Trishul Trident Blogspot and posts this as a Salute and a Tribute to the 20 Martyrs led by Col Babu who killed 30 arm-prepared Chinese with dots joined from world media, and MEA briefings and reliable Twitters. IDF has no access to Classified material.

 The bitter bashing by barbed wire baton armed PLA conscripts happened when the Chinese insisted on construction of an observation patrol post at PP 14 in India’s territory below the LAC. Col Babu, who rightly saw this as the breach of laid-down rules of disengagement and his Company Commander told his PLA counterpart to stop the OP.

Set-up in 1978 by the Indian Army near area of Shirija where 1962 war saw sacrifice of Maj Thapa’s unit, PP-14 is on a ridge that overlooks the Galwan River Valley and the Nullah, which joins the Shyok River on whose bank the DSBO road is being completed by Indian Army and BRO engineers. The 6th June meeting between the military commanders of India and China had even defined the number of troops to be present at each point leading to PP-14, which was on India’s side of the LAC.

Continue reading

AT WUHAN POST DOKLAM PRESIDENT XI & PM MODI INFORMALLY AGREED TO PEACEFULLY CO-OPERATE ON BORDERS BUT BE-LEAUGERED CHINA FEELS MILITARILY INDIA WANTS ITS LAC LINE FOR AKSAI CHIN IN LADAKH –IDF ADDS VIEWS OF GOKHALE-MK NARAYANAN CRABTREE & TANVI MADAN —-IS IT A TUG OF WAR ?

Preamble of the India China challenge from Wikipedia:- Aksai Chin (Uyghur: ﺋﺎﻗﺴﺎﻱ ﭼﯩﻦ‎; ) is a region administered by China as part of its Xinjiang and Tibet TAR claimed by India as part of Ladakh.

This is 15th IDF Covid-19 Analysis with Prasun Sengupta on the continuing military Buildup and Stand Off between Galvan’s Finger 4 to 8 (Spurs) on the 20 km thick Line of Actual Control(LAC) near Panggong Tso Lake (See Goggle Earth annotated and LAC). Clashes elsewhere took place between forward Army in Ladakh and Sikkim with injuries. Northern Command and China’s PLA from Tibet TAR and Chengdu Command are involved while IAF’s SU-30MKIs flew over. NTROs Bombardier keeps watch with satellites.

Tactically, Galvan and Depsang may hold entry to the Akasi Chin plateau, and China’s PLA has air mobile Brigades in Tibet. India claims the border is 3400 km but China says it over 2400 only as it considers Pakistan resident in POK where China has CPEC interests. Pakistan ceded 7000 sq km Shaksgam valley to China in 1963. Indian Government will have to negotiate with PRC if it gets POK as per a 1965 treaty.

President Xi has asked the PLA to overcome the ‘Peace Disease’, and Improve Combat Readiness with instructions to PLA to focus training and modernization efforts exclusively on preparations for war in all domains around China’s periphery. Currently China wants India’s top leadership to open its cards in talks. It appears India is playing poker at lower levels, confident of its position as per media statements.

Continue reading

LEADERS FORGET MORALS & FRIENDS TO FURTHER NATIONAL INTERESTS— CHINA UNDER PRESSURE ON COVID HAS INTRUDED INTO THE PERCEPTION AREA OF LAC TO GAUGE INDIA’S PLANS ON POK & AKSAI CHIN & ON USA’S QUAD & ONE CHINA POLICY VIS A VIS TAIWAN IN WHO ! MAHBUBANI SAYS CHINA HAS RISEN & IS OFFERING INDIA A HOBSON-CHOICE BETWEEN USA & CHINA

This is IDF’s 14TH COVID Analysis to ask; Can temperamental President Trump retain USA’s Super Power status and America First, to derail China’s Dream or Vice Versa with inputs from Prasun Sengupta, and is Chinese leadership and Xi Jinping a worried lot, about and what India may do in border areas constructing roads, airfields and bridges along the Line of Actual Control(LAC) and in Foreign Policy of trade, by restricting China. Also Chinese are suspicious and view  PM Modi’s all round steps as a  New Forward Policy, some what like Nehru’s in 1962. Are Chinese using military tactics to intimidate India to gain Strategic and Trade Concessions ?

Views of  world experts were analysed as Government was silent in post ‘COVIDAL’ inflection point in history. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh only on 30th said India and China are talking to each other at military and diplomatic levels to resolve the Ladakh standoff with China which is  at four points along the Line of Actual Control in strategic Galvan river finger zones, and Pangong Tso Lake area where India has linked Dubruk with fortified Daulat Oldie Beg(DBO) airfield with GRSE built Bailey Bridges. 

Continue reading

IDF TAKES ON CHAT Qs & 5 ISSUES ON “IDSA’s Op PAWAN PEACE KEEPING WEBINAR—AMBs CHINOY PURI & GEN KALKAT SPOKE WELL—OFFICIAL RECORDS NOT RELEASED SO LIKE BOOKS WERE EXPERIENCES & VIEWS—-IS IT NOT UNFAIR TO THE FINE 1400 OG SOULS NOT TO LEARN LESSONS FROM THEIR GREAT SACRIFICE ?

The main questions that were asked but not answered in IDSA’S  WEBINAR on OP Pawan on 27th May and five relevant issues follow. www.indiadefenceforum.com tables this post extracted from the book Warring Navies ISBN 978-83-93-5158-638-0 Chapter 19’s twenty pages. IDF COMMENTS ARE IN CAPITALS. Question  on RAW & IB role went answered, as expected. A  loss to Indian Military History, as actors pass on.

OPERATION PAWAN 1987 – 91— WAS IT INDIA’S POLICY OR RAJIV’S PERSONAL UNPLANNED INTERVENTION INTO SRI LANKA’S ETHNIC CONFLICT—-DID MGR & TAMIL NADU WAG THE TAIL & IB & RAW PLAY GAMES ?

Author’s analysis. “Was Rajiv Gandhi’s Op Pawan a foreign policy move, or an instrument for diversion from the Bofors scandal ? PM in India is India’s Commander-in Chief with Cabinet Control (Art 74) ? Rajiv as RM  can be labeled the strategist for Op Pawan. Did he promise LTTE head Pirbahkaran some form of Elaam in a ‘one to one’ in Ashoka Hotel Room 328 when he came to New Delhi on 28th June 1987 for parleys, after meeting MG Ramachandran(MGR); he was escorted by Defence Adviser Capt BK Gupta, as per arrangements made by Indian High Commission First Secretaries Hardeep Puri and Mrs Puri (later Ambassadors) under the high profile pipe smoking High Commissioner J N Dixit who sipped brandy with foxy President Julius Jayawardne, remains the question for researchers when official papers are released as Rajiv was assassinated by the LTTE”.

“Most Battles are won or lost before they are engaged by men who take no part in them, by their Strategist.” Carl Von Clausewitz (1832)

 1.COMMENT. DIFFUSED COMMAND & CONTROL AND NO MILITARY OR POLITICAL AIM WERE THE CULPRITS IN OP PAWAN—ARMY WAS SUPPOSEDLY CONTROLLED BY  A FINE GOC-in-C LT GEN DIPENDER SINGH OFC IN PUNE BUT MAJ GEN KALKAT WAS PROMOTED & EXERCISED MUCH FROM TRINCO AND THEN MADRAS AS HE EXPLAINED. THE IAF HAD ASSETS IN TAMABARAM DIRECTED BY AIR HQ & INDIAN NAVY TRANSPORT SUPPORT & PERSONNEL AT KKS & MARCOS EXPLAINED BY VADM SHEKHAR WERE CONTROLLED BY C-in-C EAST VICE ADMIRAL SC CHOPRA & COS REAR ADMIRAL PS DAS IN NON INTERNET TIMES——-BUT DAILY CONFLICTING ORDERS ALSO WENT OUT FROM GEN K SUNDARJI TO ARMY &  BY RAW & MEA TO HC MANI DIXIT WHO ALSO COUNSELED THE ARMY !

Continue reading

CDS-NSA & CHIEFS MUST SCRIPT A STRATEGIC “THREAT ASSESSEMENT” UNLESS NSA’s NSS(BY DPC) HAS DOME IT TO REFORM & JIG PROCUREMENTS FOR THEATRES’s -JOINT FIRE POWER-SYNERGY& CYBER—FM MANEKSHAW’S-74 DSSC LECTURE & GEN KRISHNARAO’S 1975 ARMY REFORM MAY HELP—CERTAINLY NOT MEDIA BYTES!

This is IDF’s 13th Analysis as the world is  battling the deadly Pandemic-Covid-19 in ‘Locked Downs’, and the weak and old in deaths. Future strategic equations with an unstable Pakistan active in Kashmir, Nepal and China pinpricking India and USA & China locked in a Cold War of blame, are unpredictable in this chaos. Most economies except China and USA stand battered. It is India’s crisis to face. China’s CPP leadership is under fire for the handling of COVID.

PM Modi has been steering India with RSS’ nationalism policies. 40 Ministers out of 54 are reportedly RSS. PM has opted an  IFS EAM Jay Shankar to take his load of Foreign Affairs and needs expert inputs, especially to revive economy to meet India’s potential. .

  India’s Security Establishment needs to turn this crisis into an opportunity like the Chinese are attempting under great pressure, with 140 nations wanting to tame and investigate China’s role. A crisis can be as an opportunity.

Continue reading

CHINA NEEDS PAKISTAN TO GAIN BASES IN IOR & RISE ON THE WORLD STAGE—THAT IS WHY USA WANTS INDIA IN THE QUAD– FORMER PENTAGON OFFICIAL– ‘PAKISTAN IS CHINA’S COLONIAL VASSAL’ –YET USA IS NOT SANCTIONING PAKISTAN ! CHAKAR YEY HAI !

HT MEDIA REPORT ON 6TH May, “Pakistan joined hands with neighbouring China after America’s growing relationship with India. “

Michael Rubin, Ex Pentagon, “With souring relationship with Washington and growing business and strategic ties with Beijing, Pakistan is leading nothing more than a colony of China.” Over 15000 Chinese in POK claims Rubin !

In IDF’s 13th COVID19 Analysis it shines the light on the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) where India is the military power in the region, but has an unrelenting perennial enemy in Pakistan under Military control. If not controlled soon, it will be too late.

As India gets stronger, Pakistan is turning more to China to keep its coffers going, and continues to plague India with terror, especially when India is fighting COVID. Ramzan ends on 11th commemorating the victory of Badr, and 24 Chinese MBT Tanks are arriving Pakistan in a freighter, Prasun reported.

Continue reading

IDF TABLES SNR ADVOCATE SALVE’s CASE —WHAT INDIA CAN AND CANNOT DO TO PAKISTAN IN CDR JADHAV’S CASE & THE LIMITATIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE(ICJ) & LINKS IT TO THE MANY CLAIMS/BACK LASH ON CHINA INCLUDING TRUMP’S FOR SPREADING COVID-19——IN 1160 WORDS

This is an IDF Analysis about Naval Cdr Kulbhuhsan Jadhav, in the custody of Pakistan on death row, based on awareness how Intelligence operates, and a Legal Primer Utube by brilliant Senior Advocate Harish Salve, explaining Jadhav’s live case by joining dots from the media. Prasun Sengupta who followed www.indiadefenceforum.com posts on Cdr Jadhav has collated.

 Jadhav stands accused by Pakistan as a RAW spy working in Baluchistan while he owned Kanmida Trading in the Chabahar Free Trade Zone where India has a berth, and plied a 3,500-tonne dhow between Kandla and Bandar Abbas. Jadhav’s passport bore an Iranian residency permit for the Chabahar free trade zone. He was likely kidnapped by Pakistan along the border (or at sea, as his boat not found), a version that the MEA’s statement of March 29th  endorses.

In April 2016 a can of worms opened between India and Pakistan when Media and Parliament were shocked by the death sentence awarded to an innocent Ex Cdr Jadhav as Government stated, after a General Court Martial (FGCM). Pakistan Army apprehended him and had told media before Indian High Commission in Islamabad. This contradicts Vienna convention, that IDF learnt in Singapore which is not a Signatory to the Convention but agrees to abide by its conventions on a case by case basis. It is like India does not wish to sign the Nuclear Proliferation Teaty(NPT) but agrees to follow its clauses.

Continue reading

UNSC—WHO–G20 & UN ARE GROUNDED IN UNCHARTED COVID WATERS– ECONOMIES ARE SINKING WITH LOW OIL PRICES & BANKRUPTCIES— TRUMP SEEKING A REPUBLICAN WIN WISHES TO PUNISH THE WORLD’S INVESTMENT & MANUFACTURING HUB– ‘CULPRIT CHINA’—XI/CCP ARE STRUGGLING TO RETAIN POWER –BORIS’s WORRY IS BREXIT & HUAWEI & $ 25 BILLION CHINESE INVESTMENT –BJP’ WISHES TO DETHRONE NON BJP STATES—COVID WILL NOT STOP POLITICS !

This is IDF’s 11th COVID-19 analysis a Politics will still rage. The fight to control the ravages of COVID will run side by side in every country. BJP   politicked in MP in early days of COVID. Co-operation is difficult in any democracy, but more in a less educated democracy with poverty, lacking social security. In such nations politics is big money too, scripted in devious legal ways, Eg. Electoral Bonds and unregulated elections.

 IDF as a Navigator, says this with conviction, as Harvard/ Columbia   educated Franklin Delano Roosevelt son of a US President Theodore (ex Secretary of the Navy), was one of USA’s Greatest Presidents!(1933-45). He navigated USA out of the 1938 Depression with a New Deal, to provide relief, recovery, and reform, and won World War II for USA which was followed up with a Marshall Plan in 1948 to take USA to heights. Franklin, a paralytic wheel chaired   President, believed, “In politics nothing happens by accident. If it happens you can bet it was planned.” IDF adds, “Despite Love between Husband and Wife, lurks politics.” In friendships, politics lurk ! India saw that with an Advani and a Vajpayee. It needs a close look. Education is important to lead. All this is food for thought.

India cannot be immune to politics, as HM Shah is India’s COVID Policy War Room Coordinator. NK Singh a wealthy flamboyant old time bureaucrat now a diehard BJP aged 80, is crafting a New Deal. He could not complete Finance Commission report for 2020 for two years in this Computer Age. Was it politics ? Some states are crying for GST refunds.

Continue reading