WAS HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS COVID AN ACCIDENT THAT WENT TERRIBLY WRONG OR & INTELLIGENCE FAILURE AFTER IT ESCAPED A LAB OR MARKET IN WUHAN IN 2019——IT RAGED PANDEMICALLY & CHINA’S BIO WARRIORS GAUGED THE SERIOUSNESS & RUTHLESSLY WITH AI TRACKING OF EVERY CITIZEN FOUGHT IT ON A WAR FOOTING ?? PHOTOS SHOW THAT ! ……….& WAS IT TURNED INTO A BIO-ATTACK ??

This is India Defence Forum’s (IDF’S) Second Analysis of Covid-19 on Intelligence Lines.

Accidents and Lapses of  Intelligence(Sita crossed the Lakshman Rekha) to  ward off dangers, have led to disasters like the plague and even Pearl Harbour. Only  then, did  USA join War II to defeat Japan.

 USA’s CIA and Echelon UK’s and UK’s GCHQ  could not gauge India’s Shakti Atom Bomb tests in 1998. BARC trained K Santanam in DRDO(ex RAW) with help from those setting up DIPAC, executed the mission by night  cloud cover with Army Engineer’s help.  Even Chiefs and Deputy PM may not have known.  Kargil  incursion surprised Indian intelligence and Army, as did Blue Star before.  History is plastered with Intelligence failures ! The worry of COVID by analysis appears to have led to  Germany’s  Economy Minister to  suicide. COVID-19  is  now about bio-technology and covert Economic Warfare that companies wage ! Nothing new but worldwide. 

Continue reading

COVID-19 HAS MADE WORLD’S GEO-STRATEGIC AND ECONOMIES EQUATIONS TO GYRATE — THE WORLD COULD SEE BI-POLARITY & AN ECONOMIC COLD WAR —INDIA NEEDS REFORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE & RISE THE QUAD WAY——–THERE IS ENOUGH MONEY IN THE WORLD INDIA CAN ABSORB

IDF analyses the catastrophic effects of the Covid-19 Virus pandemic and the Geo Strategic situation hitting the world  like a Tsunami. A mysterious disease with frightening potential has the world economies reeling under. Nations are hunkering down with doles.

 Covid-19 took USA and Europe by surprise, where the virus still rages, while China announced its economy and manufacturing are bouncing back after it reported 80,000 were infected, and around 3,000 succumbed since December-January Chinese New Year of the RAT’s celebrations.

China has flattened the rising curve and India is being led against COVID by Prime Minister Modi, to adhere to a nationwide lock down for 21 days, citing the Mahabharat war, Pandavas won in 18 days, evoking emotional support. Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran and even Pakistan are reporting rising cases and fatalities. PM Boris and PrInce Charles are the latest in UK. Compared to cases in China, India with an equivalent population, has only around 800 cases with 16 deaths as on 27th March, mainly those who traveled to and from abroad.

USA has 80,000 cases, with over 1300 deaths and its debt ridden dollar rich economy with a GDP of around $ 20 trillion has dipped, whilst China with an economy of around $14 trillion had a war chest of reserves to battle the virus. By all accounts COVID began from Wuhan’s animal market or a Laboratory by accident or design, the world is still to decipher. Accusations by Trump it is ‘Chinese Virus’, was not accepted by G-20, PM Modi quoted, to keep the peace with the DRAGON.

Continue reading

A NATIONAL WAR GAMING CENTRE FOR JOINTNESS & A WAR ROOM WITH DATA FUSION IS INESCAPABLE ON THE LINES OF NAVY’S FUSION CENTRE & COASTAL RADARS & IAF’s IACC & ARMY’S CIDSS IS THE RESULT OF WRITING THE NAVY YEAR BOOK-2020 & INTRODUCING INDIA’S FIRST EVER CDS

There is a urgent need for Jointness of India’s three Armed Forces and the Indian Coast Guard, which is also a nominated Armed Force under the Ministry of Defence(MOD). This task is challenging as the ‘Three Independent Services’ have been running as Independent war horses who get together in war, and when needed at other times. The task to bring about Jointness has fallen into the lap of recently instituted Chief of Defence Staff(CDS) Gen Bipin Rawat as priority. He is also the Adviser to the MOD along with Service Chiefs and become the Permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee devoid of Command or Acquisition functions.

CDS Gen Bipin Rawat is Dual Hatted. In the MOD he is a Secretary with two Joint Secretaries and he also heads the Integrated Defence Staff(IDS) which has Vice Admiral Hari Kumar heading it as Chief of Integrated Defence Staff, who will now have more staff functions to aid the CDS. For the success of the aims for which CDS has been framed, IDF offers a solution to set up a National War Gaming Centre and a War room with data fusion from the services as priority. It will not cost much, but inculcate Jointness and Joint War Plans and attend to the National War Book co-ordination as many Ministries are involved. A War Gaming Centre on the lines of Maritime Tactical Training Centres the Navy runs at Mumbai, Vishakapatnam and Cochin and executes war gaming too for development of tactics and plans exercises like Malabar when in Indian waters, with invited US and Japanese Naval officers,

The paradigm of ‘Sensor to Shooter’ ability has moved ahead in India in the many radars, infrared systems, and other sensors to deliver success which are independently operated by the Navy, Air Force, Army and the Coast Guard to detect and track everything from ships, aircraft to foot soldiers, and from enemy radar systems to enemy communications, supported by NTRO and Intelligence Services under the National Security Adviser Shri Ajit Doval and a National Security Council Secretariat. Each service has its operations Centres, and dedicated communications for commanders to take decisions, in some cases even with satellite and aerostat pictures on their desk, or on call.

THE INDIAN AIR FORCE has fibre optic linking which concentrates on the Air Picture with an Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) which has an automated air-defence command-and-control (C2) centre designed for controlling and monitoring Indian Air Force (IAF) flight operations throughout the country. The Indian government funded nearly Rs 7000 cr (USD110 million) in July 2018 to integrate Air Force, Army, Navy, and Civilian radars with IACCS to provide a nationwide air picture. Following the successful launch of the satellite GSAT-7A in December 2018 the IAF is integrating the GSAT 7A with the IACCS through the Air Force Network (AFNet) communications backbone, which is a secure internet protocol (IP)-based communications system that runs over fibre-optic cable and connects more than 150 locations. Tropo-scatter was discarded.
The IAF also has a telephonic secure mobile handset system and it is reported to be working well. There is lacunae in the Identification Friend or Foe(IFF) methodology in platforms and AA weapon systems. The downing of an Mi-17 helicopter by a missile(Blue on Blue) in the heat of air operations near Srinagar which were launched when Pakistan Air Force retaliated to the Balakot air attack on 27th Feb 2019 with Swift Retort is a pointer that IFF has to be as automated as all other weapon systems. Human Guns Free or Guns Tight has to be an Over Ride by air controllers. The Government must have been updated on this need as CDS ordered the tabling of a paper on Air Defence as his first priority. He must also have visited Indian Navy’s nuclear submarine as it finally made India to barge into the P5 after Shakti tests.
THE INDIA NAVY lays emphases on electronic Maritime Domain Awareness(MDA) in the IOR. BEL with ELCOME has commissioned Coastal AIS stations many on Lighthouses , with a Coastal Terma Radar Chain along the coast , OBSERV and Israeli opto-electro cameras in the National Communication Command and Control and Intelligence (NC3I) network which links the 51 Naval and Coast Guard stations, located along the coast and on island territories to Operation Rooms of the Navy and Coast Guard and SAR stations. The network provides these stations coastal surveillance information obtained from various sensors such as the radar chain and automatic tracking systems and the electro-optical cameras which give instantaneous feed from unmanned stations. The network rides on dedicated terrestrial data circuits, as well as, satellite communication which helps the stations in remote locations to be networked through Internet.
The Navy’s Information Management and Analysis Centre (IMAC), at Gurgaon, is the centre where data from various sensors and databases is aggregated, correlated and then disseminated to various stations for enhanced awareness, with Lloyd’s Merchant ships list on payment and National LRIT from DG Shipping to the Coast Guard. The setting up NC3I was successful as a committee was set up under maritime state Secretaries under the Cabinet Secretary post 26/11 and a co-located Fusion Centre in Gurugram is on lines of the set up in Singapore with access to RN and French Navy reps from missions in Delhi. The Indian Navy has also helped smaller island countries in the region to improve surveillance by setting up AIS chains and Coastal Radar stations. A bold initiative to share White Shipping Data (from Africa’s East Coast to beyond Malacca with the littoral countries is being operationalised in stages. Sterlite Industries is assisting the Navy to set up a fibre optic back bone while GSAT 7 ISRO satellite serves the Navy well with Links and ships have the Rukmani system with Israeli Orbit Rukmini antennae on the large ships.
THE INDIAN ARMY has the Command Information Decision Support System (CIDSS SEE DIAGRAM) for digitisation and is handled by the Directorate General of Information Systems which deals with this important element of Non Contact Warfare. The heart of the CIDSS is the Tactical Command Control Communications and Information System (Tac C3I), Artillery Combat Command and Control System (ACCCS), Battlefield Surveillance System (BSS), Air Defence Control & Reporting System (ADC&RS), Electronic Warfare System (EWS) and, Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) System. The Tac C3I is meant to provide state-of-the-art connectivity from the Corps HQ and below. Upward connectivity from Corps HQ to Army HQ is to be provided by the Army Strategic Operational Information Dissemination System (ASTROIDS). However, there is need for connectivity for which a requirement to provide an automated Battle Management System (BMS) for the sub-units to have sensors, platforms, weapon systems integrated with individual soldiers, to enable them to exploit their assets and translate plans into synergised operations at the lowest level.

Phase 1 of ACCCS has been completed and practically 33 per cent of Artillery units are equipped with state-of-the-art networks. Tac C3I and BSS are in the test bed. EWS, ELINT and ADC&RS are in the process of development. The main Defence Public Sector Unit (DPSU) involved is Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and the main Defence and Research laboratory is Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR). Progress will be on display at DEFEXPO-2020 at Lucknow.

The number and ability of sensors and of ‘Single Shot’ missiles and weapons in the Armed Forces like the BrahMos, Barak, Spyder missiles and air launched arsenal from the Air Force’s MiGs, SU-30 MKI, Apache helicopters and Navy’s MiG-29Ks continues to grow as the battle space is becoming digitized, and the challenge is to refine sensor outputs into a fused picture without electronic or information overload. This data fused picture will enable swift decision making by the political masters and military Commanders and can only happen when the three services work together so that they can combine their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses to create a secure internet sensor network with modems at one place. To do this, the services will have to rely on various approaches to sensor-fusion technology to enable individual sensors to work together to pool their information and inputs and fill in blanks or incomplete data, and compensate for weaknesses, so essential to create a whole sensor picture that is greater than the sum of its parts.

Advanced commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) microprocessors and high-speed wireless data networking have made sensor fusion even more feasible today for a broad variety of military and aerospace applications than it was a decade ago. In the future, in fact, Indian military’s concept of network-centric warfare rests on the foundation of sensor fusion.

FOR INDIA’S 71ST REPUBLIC DAY IDF ANNOUNCES THE RELEASE OF THE INDIAN NAVY YEAR BOOK – 2020 WITH INCISIVE ARTICLES ON MARITIME ISSUES BY EXPERTS & HERE ARE SOME INSIDES

As IDF welcomes His Excellency Mr. Jair Messias Bolsonaro, President

of  Brazil as India’s Chief Guest to India’s hospitality and strategy on its 71st Republic Day parade IDF recounts that  on the military front India got her first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), to enable the armed forces to implement coordinated defence doctrines and procedures while fostering joint-manship. India also got her first National War Memorial and PM Modi dedicated to the nation at the India Gate in New-Delhi, where he will pay homage (Sharandhjali) to those who gave their all for us.

 India also added  strategic infrastructure post Doklam. Bridges came up,  one km long Ujh bridge in Kathua and 617.40m long Basantar bridge in Jammu & Kashmir, Col Chewang Rinchen bridge connecting Durbuk and Daulat Beg Oldie in Eastern Ladakh and Sisseri river bridge connecting Lower Dibang Valley with East Siang in Arunachal Pradesh were inaugurated by the Defence Minister as part of strategic outreach. India-US 2+2 Dialogue and Indian-Japan moved ahead in  January 2020. Army added 155mm guns.

The 100 paged pocket sized year book with 70  ‘land mark’  photos of Indian, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran and PLA Navies  (10 pages on PLAN)  opens with messages by Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Karambir Singh and Director General Indian Coast Guard K Natarajan which are themselves elaborate statements on their respective Arms wishing the Year Book well.

The  book is to support the Navy one served, and the Nation one loves and the outside world to appreciate India’s small Navy of 65,000 with 132 ships and 200 aircraft with a below $ 7 bill budget at 13% of the Defence Budget when Army has 52% and Air Force 22%. This year  IDF looks forward to the 2020 budget on 1st Feb. Navy can no longer be starved for Nation’s future is a judgment to be made by readers.

The book in a piece welcomes Gen Bipin Rawat as India’s First Chief of Defence Staff (CDS)  in the post of a Secretary which he was as 27th COAS, but  with a Department of Military Affairs with two Joint Secretaries with Advisory authority in MOD to synergise and bring about Jointness in the Armed Forces. CDS will also head  IDS but with no Command function and DG Acquisition will retain Acquisition powers and functions. Hence CDS will be Double Hated and Year Book with wishing him Following Seas & Fair Winds. A view is tabled that as Gen Manekshaw acted as a self styled CDS it is  personality that will also matter ! This is a trait in India’s higher leadership.

Book accepts India’s forces are strong and technology has galloped but Indian Armed Forces never thought of exports so costs of equipment made in India especially in PSUs never mattered. India’s Defence runs vide  Art 53 of India’s  Constitution with Cabinet Control under the Prime Minister. The Defence of India as in the Business Rules is under the Defence Secretary, and  the President of India is India’s Supreme Commander but has no Executive or Command powers and exercises Ceremonial functions.

Fortunes change but Author explains in a forward that India’s maritime geography is India’s  permanent fortune in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR).  Vice Admiral Satish Soni missed getting a shot of becoming the  Chief of Naval Staff by seniority as Adm DK Joshi resigned. He covers   the importance of the Indian Ocean as the gateway to the Atlantic and the Pacific, which is  becoming an arena of contestation between extant and emerging powers. The volume of merchandise carried across this region raises the stakes in the security of trade as over 1,00,000 ships transit across annually. Since mid-90s, trade between Indian Ocean littorals and China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the South East Asian countries has been increasing exponentially, and consequent higher need for fossil fuels and resources. India is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the destiny of this maritime landscape which has now coalesced into the ‘Indo-Pacific’.

Mahendra Ved  writes how Navy Acted East Promptly In The 2004 Tsunami Hadr Operations & The Nation Learnt & Appreciated The Need To Support India’s Navy—— In December 2004, the over thirty Navy’s ships sailed out and to Southeast Asian shores; it was neither for war nor for re-creating the ancient trade and cultural voyages in what came to be called “Vishal Bharat.” It was for a massive humanitarian effort that deserves telling in this year book. After that CNS Adm Robin Dhowan and Vadm Soni steered IFR 2016 and earned the respect of the world navies for India’s Navy.  CM Chandrbabu Naidu dod wonders to make Vishkapatnam look clean like Singapore.

Uday Bhaskar discusses the address of Adm Karambir to media during Navy Week 2019  and the need for a better budget for the Indian Navy. He is convinced that the current level of the budget in the planning of the country at 13% of the defence budget is hopefully inadequate. Admiral Pradeep Chauhan DG of the national Maritime Foundation gives a livid account how India’s Maritime strategy should be urgently chalked out. It is well known that Niti Aayog has as a proposed Maritime strategy but has not yet been able to progress it NSAB has  also proposed a strategy which includes strengthening of the Indian Navy but that too who has not been made public.

Group captain TPS Srivastava also looks at National strategy and proposes and an Air Sea  doctrine for battle  in the year book and hope it is taken in the national spirit of Jointness. The book has got details of ships and aircraft of the Indian Navy and in another part of the book has articles by Prasun Sengupta which discuss the advances made in the Pakistan,  Bangladesh Navy and Iranian Navy with author’s comments for good measure.

I met Yogesh Joshi as a young budding pain staking scholar, when he came to me when he was doing his Phd in JNU on Nuclear submarine co-operation with USA which Homi Bhaba began but President Johnson stopped and how Soviet Union  helped India with the ATV programme and INS Arihant culled specially for the Year Book from his research. He got  American and translated documents from Russia and introduced me to the Archives of PN Haksar in Nehru Memorial and Archives of India on Janpath. IDF has seen him blossom and get married and do his parents proud. He  is currently in Stanford.

On a personal note having been Commander at the Indian Naval Academy the author has spelled out the story of the officers who one trained and six trained in Vladivostok for over 2 years and served in Chakra-1 (1987-91), the ATV and helped construct SBC 2 in L&T. . IDF’’s Navac wards did well and with wives invited IDF and wife to four days of get together in Cochin and Allepey and  Nostalgia to  relive how they were trained to beat NDA guys( like IDF). Their escapades and saving of INS Chakra1 from disaster made me write the Story of the  Chakradharians. Commodore CD Balaji and his wife Rama was there and as he was of the same Navac in my time I saluted him as a Scientist G(Vadm) and the story of the Naval LCA he steered that landed and took off from INS Vikaramaditya and gave IAF LCA  Mk1 and credit to CAS ACM Raha too.  

 Coimbatore CG Balaji give the brief account of the naval version of the light combat aircraft and how it has been a success bi landing and taking off from INS Vikramaditya finally a few paragraphs from the authors comments and concluding remarks complete the review of the Indian Navy  Year book 2020. Shan No Varuna.

Download Book Cover

INDIA’S LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT(LCA) NAVAL VERSION LANDS & TAKES OFF FROM INS VIKRAMADITYA—KUDOS TO MANY & CMDE MAOLANKAR & MOST TO CMDE CD BALAJI SCIENTIST G PROJECT DIRECTOR AND LATER HEAD ADA—FROM PAPER TO FLIGHT !

This is an IDF tribute to  a modest Cmde (Retd)CD Balaji who steered the Navy’s and then the IAF’s LCA MK1 programme that ACM Raha accepted to give LCA a boost on Balaji’s presentation not to the import lobby !

It gives joy to IDF that Balaji  was part of the batch that IDF was proud to train,  and three other batches  of the Technical branch in the Naval Academy in Cochin 1978-80.  Our motto was to see they did better than NDA and taught then the path ! Eight became Admirals a record, and Balaji blazed in the LCA programme and when IDF  met him at ADA, IDF  said, “ You have done well Balaji…sorry Navy did not make you an Admiral”, he replied, “Sir I am Scientist G”. I found out he was equivalent to a Vice Admiral. At Cochin in Feb this year I saluted Balaji. His  batch invited my wife and me as guests, for a four day Nostalgic recall of how they were trained and a Gala of tours and visits to schools and Allepey back waters, and the new NAVAC at Ezimala! They have done well after leaving Navy in India, and abroad. 

I had followed Balaji’s career and how he fitted REVLONS on Naval Two naval  LCAs and on congratulating him on Sunday he modestly accepted my congratulations and spoke of the team work and Chief Test Pilot.  There is more. We felicitated Mrs Balaji, who said, “ I am a teacher and feel proud of my students who do well, and remember me. I can imagine how you are feeling !    

As the Officer in Charge of Naval Academy, IDF  trained a number of Green Horns. Out of that, IDF  have not at that point of time, imaged that one would shine as Balji and another bunch of my wards  would become a part of the pioneers of the nuclear submarining of the Nation. This bunch of half a dozen with others I am referring  to, belong to the 1979 Aug to Dec and then the Dec 1979  to Apr 1980 batches of Technical graduates. (16th Integrated and then the 17th Integrated). They call themselves the Chakradharians as six served in INS  Chakra and assisted ATV after long training in Vladivostok. The story will figure with LCA and  Balaji’s in Navy Year Book-2020 at DEFEXPO 2020. But here is Balaji’s story.

 By Cmde CD Balaji (Retd), Distinguished Scientist

[Former Project Director LCA (Navy), Former Programme Director (CA) & Director ADA]

1.           The journey started in the 1990’s when the then Programme Director of Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), Dr. Kota Harinarayana and his team visited INS Hansa, the Indian Naval Air Station at Goa, to interact with the Indian Navy team comprising, at that time, of Cdr. Shekar Sinha, Lt.Cdr. CD Balaji and Lt.Cdr. Vijay Kandru. The team discussed the nuances of carrier borne aircraft operation. This was my first exposure to a design & development environment and I guess, the initiation of my journey with the Naval Version of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA Navy). At this time, the design of the Air Force Version of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) was already in progress and initial build activities were also underway with the formal sanction being accorded in 1993.

2. Based on draft Naval Air Staff Requirements (Sep 1986) issued by Naval Head Quarters (NHQ), feasibility of making a Naval version with minimum structural changes to LCA was studied. A project on LCA Navy Project Definition Phase (PDP) was initiated.

3. The teams from ADA and HAL put together a study based on the Air Force Version and concluded that it would be feasible to develop a carrier borne aircraft, albeit with certain changes in order to operate with the concept of Ski-jump Take-off But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR). At that time, it was envisaged that the exit Angle of Attack (AoA) would be limited to 24 deg and the approach AoA would be 17.5 deg in order to have a reduced approach speed to the ship. The take-off run was indicated to be about 200m with the ramp exit angle of 12 deg.

4. Based on the Project Definition and on my formal deputation to ADA in 2002, I started writing the CCS Note for the Full-Scale Engineering Development for a Naval Version of the Light Combat Aircraft (FSED LCA Navy). The CCS approval was accorded in End Mar 2003. The assumption at this time was that the changes to the Naval version would be in the order of 15 to 20% vis-à-vis the Air Force Version. Incidentally, the LCA AF had its maiden flight on 04 Jan 2001. The team was built up over the years from a lone ranger in the LCA Navy Programme Office at ADA in 2002 to 4 members by 2005.

5. The design and development activities were initiated in right earnest along with HAL and as the detailed design evolved, the extent of changes kept increasing and it started becoming a new aircraft, albeit with constraints imposed by commonality. We had a new front fuselage (Nose section), a strengthened centre fuselage to take the volume and loads of a longer and stronger landing gear and the arrester hook. We had a new leading-edge control surface, a new control law, etc.,              

6. In parallel to the design and development of the aircraft itself, there was a need to conceptualise and build various test facilities / rigs for proving the design prior to flight / validation. Some of the major facilities were the Shore Based Test Facility (SBTF) at Goa replicating the ski-jump launch and arrested recovery, the full scale aircraft structural test rig to load the aircraft to 1.5 times the flight loads, sub system test rigs for landing gear, arrester hook, LEVCON, control law, Avionics, Real time simulator, Telemetry facility at Goa, etc.,

7. The aircraft was rolled out in 2010, equivalent to the launch of the ship. This was witnessed by the then CNS, Admiral Nirmal Verma. The aircraft was then equipped, ground tested and had its maiden flight on 27 Apr 2012, exactly 9 years after the CCS approval. This is considered contemporary by any world standard, especially doing it for the first time in the country.

8. The first maiden ski-jump launch was in Dec 2014, followed by the arrested recovery (Taxi-in) in Aug 2018

9. I had the opportunity of flying the aircraft that we had designed and built 3 days prior to my demitting office on superannuation.

10. After successful arrested recovery at the Shore Based Test Facility at Goa, history was made when the second LCA Navy Prototype, NP2 was successfully recovered on board INS Vikramaditya, piloted by Cmde. JA Maolankar on 11 Jan 2020. This was followed by a successful maiden launch from the ship on 12 Jan 2020. These events deserve to be written in golden letters and the nation can be justifiably proud.

Recovery on Vikramaditya on 11 Jan 2020:

Launch from Vikramaditya on 12 Jan 2020:

IDF’s YEAR END GEO- ANALYSIS——UNIPOLARITY IS TRANSITING INTO MULTIPOLARITY FOR CHINA & NO ONE SEEMS TO BE CO-OPERATING TO MEET THE RISE OF CHINA AS PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ARROGANCE HAS BECOME USA’s CARAPACE TO UPSTAGE EU TOO—RUSSIA IS THE GAINER ! WHERE DOES INDIA STAND ?.

The year 2019 saw an upward momentum of China with its risen economy to Number Two in the world, vigorously attempting to force a transition from an ‘unprecedentedly unipolar’ world which was led by USA as its policeman, especially in the Middle East for two decades after it sank the Soviet Union in the Cold War. It has left Middle East in a mess, and US sanctions on Iran and Russia has drawn them closer with China, to attempt a grouping as the year ends with a first ever Naval Exercise in the Gulf where a US carrier is operating. Iran showed up a submarine and Indian Navy must be tailing!

Today USA is looking at askance with Carapace, which is the noun for the protective shell on the back of some animals such as tortoises, and India Defence Forum refers to it as an attitude of arrogance by Republicans in USA and more recently President Trump of USA who thought he had a protective shell to do as he pleased, and even entered into a un winnable Trade War with China. Trump was hoping to throttle China’s technology rise unaware China had already absorbed, bought and poached major technologies like 5/6G, Robotics, AI and Space which are now maturing in China to threaten USA, also in the military sphere of Cyber. Future wars will be cyber and space based.

Ufa: Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar shakes hands with Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to Pakistan Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs, during the plenary session of Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at UFA in Russia on Friday. PTI Photo by Manvender Vashist (PTI7_10_2015_000072B)

This situation and attitudes of USA has led to a weakening of NATO and a new 21st century ‘international balance’ characterized by multi-polarity and co-governance with China in International Affairs and Climate change. In the Far East it is evident as China grabbed the South China Sea without a challenge, despite currently the United States remains the world’s only military superpower. War as a means has receded, and China has emerged as a critical player in this rebalanced world of diminishing U.S. power and influence, with a show of latest weaponry on 1st October celebrating its 70th anniversary with a massive parade, and never seen before with DF-17 Hypersonic missiles, that USA and the world has noted. Russia has followed up with showing of its Avanguard missile and a new class of submarines, with a better foreign policy and Oil led economy !

India’s economy too arrived on the scene as PM Modi took reins, after PM Manmohan Singh inked a Nuclear Deal with USA. President Bush and Condelezza Rice in a Quid Pro Quo facilitated an approval by China in the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) with China’s top leadership, with a favour to Pakistan. China cited its Grandfather NPT agreement for another nuclear plant to Pakistan which fact is still doubted in India. China and Pakistan are close partners.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi mesmerized the voters in 2013 with his wonderful idea of a new India sans corruption and return of stashed FFE. Modi’s appropriate local wardrobe for every occasion, growth from humble beginnings as a RSS Pracharak and powerful oratory. He was supported by Non Resident Indians(NRIs), especially in USA with the use of powerful messages on Social Media, especially by Gujararatis longing for a Gujarati leader after Gandhi and Sardar Patel. Modi arrived with a well deserved powerful showing at the hustings in 2014, and a more decisive one in 2019. PM Modi had and has, the full support of his party and compatriot Home Minister Amit Shah colleagues from Gujarat who tided the killings in the state in 2002 with the mixed BJP/RSS right wing cadres.

Slowly Hindu Nationalism got revived among the majority belt of India who revere Ram as the main Hindu character God who showed the path of righteousness. Ram is the central figure in the mythological Ramayana recited from ancient BC times and in Hinduism. It puts Vishnu the God that provides in the Hindu Triumvirate of Bramha The Creator, Vishnu the Giver and Shiva the Destroyer as Ram’s incarnation. BJP made Hindus feel they are main inheritors of India and RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat regularly makes it clear to all who live in India, they should follow Hindutva alongside their faith and demanded actions to please Hindus like one to make a Grand Ram Temple at the site of the Babri Masjid destroyed by BJP supporters in 1992. BJP put much into BJP’s Election Manifesto.

PM Modi told US Congress India had put away the baggage of the past with USA. The composition was working and undoubtedly India has moved on the world stage with PM Modi’s ‘one to one’ meetings with World Leaders and foreign policy maneuverings and a beefed up military that Pakistan tries to de-rail. China fears India’s rise can be threatening and a QUAD poses challenges especially to its trade in the Indian Ocean Region and India’s truck with USA with large military supplies. India has risen militarily and soon a CDS may harness the kinetic and deterrent power of India with jointness, to truly bare Indian Armed Forces capability.

Yet much energy and economy of BJP was spent by the Government on fulfilling the manifesto promises after galloping the economy to over 7.5 % with low Oil and Gas prices globally. Golden opportunities were available to amend Non Alignment policies with liberal economics permitted by Globalisation. Like in 1991-3, BJP could have opened the flood gates for Foreign Investments that the world looked to, and still does, but the Government lost its eye on the economy with RSS encouraging Swadeshi (Make do in India) so jobs did not expand in the manufacturing sector for a burgeoning youth bulge to indulge. Instead BJP Government with hard hold on Institutions tightened action on checking every business and defaulter payees. Good business lost confidence to take risks. Economy spluttered in 2019 and the spending for defence has consequently suffered most, and Government implemented no measures on fruitless spending best depicted by the galloping Rs 35,000 cr($ 5 billon) loss in Air India and growing, as oil and gas prices have soared.

China allowed its stashed wealth in Hong Kong into Shenzen and SEZs and capitalized on the opportunities presented by globalisation and the informatisation of a controlled society with Internet and AI and one party rule with technocrat leaders, to propel itself forward, economically, socially and technologically. China baited North Korea to take on President Trump and in the geopolitical context the security and defense implications for the region looked askance to China. ASEAN changed the contours of the Code of Conduct to maintain status quo in the South China Sea dispute with Laos and Cambodia backing away. Vietnam concentrated on its economy, to gain from Industries moving out of China with the US Trade War.

China sees a change in the types of conflicts for which it needs to prepare and in the domains in which it will be required to compete and potentially contest with nations and uses cheque book diplomacy in Africa. China has become a critical player in this rebalanced world of diminishing U.S. power and influence. In this geopolitical context there are security and defense implications for India and for the region.

India has targeted a challenging $ 5 trill economy by 2024 and will need immediately to grow at 8% to 10% at least to add to its $ 3 trillion GDP. China has again begun to grow at above 5% with some BRI investments and sale of defence goods paying off, and could add $ 750 bill a year to its $ 13 trillion GDP.

Hence India has to accept that with a slowing economy it has considerable limitations to what the Indian leadership can do.

So IDF feels India must employ Indian talent and business to deliver with a massive opening of its economy to private sector as it has FFE reserves, and let some un-actionable bygones be bygones and explain to RSS that is true SWADESHI ………..i.e Foreign investment and Technology with Indian labour and leave it to India’s brilliant managers to deliver. It is not too late to postpone other issues in the Manifesto, and such deep nationalism. There can be Unity in Diversity with the laws India already has, and IDF hopes the Election Commission and the fine Judiciary remain true to the ideals of the Constitution to guide India high through choppy waters.
HAPPY NEW YEAR ! Shan No Varuna.

INDIA’S NAVY IS INDIA’S DIPLOMATIC ARM & DETERRENT STRENGTH TO MEET CHINA —THE MILITARY NEEDS A HEALTHIER DEFENCE BUDGET-2020 BEING PREPARED—–LISTEN TO RAJA MOHAN’s WARNING AS CHINA MAKES INGRESS INTO THE IOR

This post tables C Raja Mohan’s bugle warning from Singapore
published in Indian Express’s ‘ADDA’ (Bastion) on 26 th Dec page 19
in small print.

Raja flies in and out of Singapore and briefs the world on the region. He watches Indo-Pacific more clearly from Singapore than in India, as almost each other day a Foreign Naval ship or VIP visits, while India’s politicians attention gets embroiled in races for power and bureaucracy in elections, and more recently with un-abating CAA and NRC and NPR disturbances, with the Indian media showing little interest in much else. EAM Jaishankar keeps busy flying around to pursue national interests with his persona.

In the recent protests, Prime Minister Abe could not come to visit with us and discuss our falling economy and a Maritime & Logistic Agreement so an Indian team has flown to Japan.

Raja Mohan has tabled an interesting answer to a simple question on Britain of yore, and China of today at IE’s Addda held with William Darympl; and Raja has rightly turned the spot light on the Indian Military to wake up on China. William is the best known Indophile after Mark Tully and his answers at the ADDA were interesting including a quip on Right Wing politicians and he mentioned Jar Bolsonaro of Brazil, Trump, Modi and Boris Johnson by name but not Erdogan ! And how difficult British Army found to tackle Afghanistan, hinting history repeats! Only one Brit Dr Boron returned from the Afghan war he said.

Delhi’s glitterati and so called Lutyen’s Delhi named such by the Government, were at the ADDA and so IDF cannot but help analyse Raja’s reply for those who may have missed it, as it is a subject suitable for Indian Strategists.

The incoming CDS if it be Gen Bipin Rawat may note Raja’s call and Indian Navy’s Chief Admiral Karambir Singh’s lament on Navy’s diminishing budget as Rawat remits office on 31st Dec and he is tipped to don a Purple Uniform as India’s first as CDS. Navy’s Suppliers are worried about payments it is reported and Naval experts on a drought of platforms and orders.


Q By Indian Express to C Raja. Mohan.
If Indians are still bashing the Brits, the Chinese seem poised to buy the Brits. Is there a way how both look at it differently ?
Answer by Raja.IDF Comments in bracket.
I think that is such a hugely important point. In this country(India) everyone is looking at Pakistan(and worrying of some action in POK as cross border terror is not reducing and Imran Khan speaks of war) and no one is noticing the massively greater thrust of this enormous Army (China’s military rise), which is 20 years ahead of you guys(Indians), in terms of aircrafts, tanks, communications, stealth bombers, owning Gwadar, Trincomallee (in Sri Lanka strategically placed). I did not know they bought Darwin(in Australia). They have just taken over Piraeus in Greece(China has crept in to take over the Entre Port for the past decade as a shipping hub for Chinese Shipping Lines feeding inter modal transport into Europe with Chinese exports). It is clearly the big rival (to India) and yet no one is looking over the Himalayas’.
Raja has not mentioned the powerful growing PLA(Navy) adding 18 ships and many aircraft a year, including an Aircraft Carrier with J-15 planes made in China and commissioned by President Xi Jinping last week named Shandong which sailed from Sanya in Hainan last week, the nearest Chinese port to the Malacca Straits and South China Sea through the Taiwan Straits. Is there a message in it for India. Sanya naval base has been beefed up with underwater submarine pens like that India is also making at Romboli in Project Varsha, South of congested Vishakhapatnam for basing nuclear and conventional submarines.

Raja’s reply has goaded IDF to add its own Chetavne (warning) to Indians on the security front. It is not to underestimate what the PLA(Navy) means to rising China in its ambitious plans in the Indo Pacific Indian Ocean Region(IOR) as China seems to winning the Great Maritime Game by its paws in Pakistan and Djibouti and is doing its first four day naval exercise with sanctioned Russia and Iranian Navy in the Gulf of Oman since 26th in joint drills amid ongoing friction in the economically important region between sanctioned Tehran and Russia and Washington. Four Russian Navy ships led by Variyag exercised with Indian Navy off Vishakpatnam in Ex Indira 10 days ago.
PLA(Navy) always has three warships in the area and berth in Djibouti where they have built berths even for merchant ships. The Gulf of Oman has been a focal point of geopolitical tensions in 2019 after two oil tankers were attacked in the straits in June and Iran detained a British oil tanker, the Stena Imperio for two months and Indian Navy patrols the area Gulf and has access to the port of Duqm and must be tailing the exercise as SOP.
Indian Navy needs to rise with a Code of Conduct for stability in the IOR with its friendly nations as the Net Security Provider(NSP), and offer steps of aid in SAGAR to fend off China supplying ships and submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. India has begun begin to look to the QUAD more and signed LEMOA and COMCASA foundational security co-operation agreements with USA, that Sri Lanka also covets but they are classified.
It was over a decade ago, when US announced its ‘pivot policy to the East’ hoping China would heed UNCLOS 1982 laws in the South China Seas(SCS). China showed two hoots and challenged US Navy Ships trying to do Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS). Then, in what many have called the most advanced reclamation technology in the world, China converted rocks in SCS into islands to claim EEZ and fortified them.
The many Exercise Malabars opened USA’s eyes to rope in India and its capable small Navy into a QUAD to help contain China. But China’s economy fueled its military industries especially ship building and infrastructure and re-orgainsed its military and began to gallop. If a Chinaman gets good ROTI KAPADA MAKAN & good living conditions most Chinese will support the leadership signified by the benevolent Lion and they have a Peoples Party in absolute power and leaders are all technocrats to plan well and contain grievances.
Currently China is quoting what is happening in India in Global Times and China Daily to absolve themselves on human rights in double speak. China on a Sun Tzu principle uses its neighbour North Korea’s Kim Jung Un to show the Red Flag to USA with Nuclear and Missile power it acquired from Russia and China and some from Pakistan in exchange for Nodong missiles. USA seems to have lost steam and wishes to sign a trade deal to end the Trade war with China.
In India in 2017 late Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stated, “India is a bright spot in the world’s gloomy economy”, but those hopes were belied in the Defence Budget of 2018-19. The Finance Ministry allocated only Rs 295,511 crores ($42.7Bill) for Defence which is 1.4% of India’s GDP. No nation shows hidden nuclear military spending. The budget for pensions saw a sharp increase of 26% to Rs. 1,08,853.30 crore over the Budget Estimates 2017-18. Manpower costs with revised pay scales has seen escalation in the cost of ships and equipment and the services revenue budget is over spent so even ECHS suffers for a few hundred crores.
Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman this year allocated only Rs 3,05,296 crore ($44.6 billion) for Defence Expenditure. It was hoped a Supplementary Budget would ameliorate the challenge services face. This has not happened, and February is round the corner with elections in Delhi which may tell a different story.

The Navy needs bigger budgetary support. The cost of deliveries by Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) and Shipyards has risen with delays with little MOD attention. Navy has always looked to affordability and Make in India and is suffering. The Rupee too has depreciated and the nation’s oil bill has risen. The Navy’s share of the Defence budget 2018-19 of Rs 40, 4195 crores was just 14%, compared to 22% for the Indian Air Force and 52% for the Army which the soft spoken Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh has lamented and needs attention. Thank you Raja ! Shan No Varuna.

COAS GEN RAWAT TIPPED CDS BY MEDIA RELINQUISHES WITH IBGs & AN UNFINISHED ARMY AGENDA— THE CDS PLATE IS FOR JOINTNESS CO-ORDINATION & MAKE IN INDIA WITH POWERS THAT BUREAUCRACY & NSA MAY RETAIN BUT PERSONALITY MATTERS IN INDIA

Indian Armed Forces especially the Chiefs of Army(COAS), Navy(CNS) and
Air Force(CAS), the Chief of Integrated Defence Staff(CIDS) and MOD
bureaucrats must be biting nails, awaiting a formal announcement of
the name of India’s First Chief of Defence Staff(CDS) and the powers and
charisma he wields that will affect the working of MOD and inter pares
working of the Chiefs. Ceremonial planning may have begun.

CDS has been given no command functions. He will have a new
Department in MOD and be the Principal Adviser which was put with the
NSA as he headed a Chiefs Committee, now as a Cabinet Minister. History
needs to be heeded as access to PM in India as head of the Cabinet
matters as India runs on Cabinet Control. President is Commander-in-Chief
only in name. PM retains the powers.

Military is all about Command and Control and Navy is the only service
that ensures that proper C&C go together. If a ship from one command
goes to another Command it is CHOPPED BY SIGNAL to that command and
if it serves 3 months then the ACRs which is the power of Command, are
written by the new Command as that Command controls that ship and its
operations which are always heavy, with shortage of platforms. No Luxury
of a big Army. Economy brings in efficiency and MAKE DO IN INDIA.

Even today Air Defence, Control and Command of Attack Helicopters and
AD Missiles control and Army IAF IFF and decision making on these issues
rankles the Army and Air Force. AMPHIBIOUS operations command and
LSD choice is contested between Army, IAF and Navy. In the 1960s Navy
had to take over Command and Control of Maritime Aviation seeing the
Boobs IAF Liberators made in the 1965 war.

MR command and control despite Coloured Forms, was a bitter battle of
the late 1960s…….over Chiefs heads. Mid level officers lost friendships
snooping on each other writing up convincing files to MOD as both were
emotional. IDF saw it first hand as a Navigator. Indian Navy fighter pilots
like Arun Prakash successfully flew Transport Super Constellation Planes,
because they were commanded to do so. It surprised the IAF.

In Navy the senior most in a plane or helicopter is the Captain of the Plane
even if he/she be a Observer, that the IAF call Navigator. Soon a Lt Cdr
lady Observer officer with 2000 hours in a P8i looks to be the CAPTAIN OF
THE P8i commanding a Lt Cdr with more hours of flying ! It will work !.
In India another feature is the personality of the Chief matters.

In 1971 Gen Sam Manekshaw set a bench mark as the Chairman of Chiefs
of Staff Committee(COSC) to act like a CDS with direct access to the
Defence Minister and Prime Minister to instill confidence for the
impending war that followed in 1971. It took months to get the machinery
going for that victory, we are forgetting.

Luckily NSA according to IDF analyses with his hard work, background of
Intelligence and personality has instilled that confidence in Surgical Strikes
and Balakot. The Indian PMs with little background on wars always needs

a trusted adviser and let’s hope CDS can fulfill that role with personality as
he will be COSC too. Rawat has worked closely with NSA and PM. Its called
experience and EQ which matters.

On the other hand COAS Gen K Sundarji took over Op PAWAN (1987-91)
with his power of command of troops and side lined COSC Chairman and
CNS Adm RH Tahiliani with his direct access to RRM Arun Singh and PM
and RM Rajiv Gandhi and Foreign Secretary Venky from South and DRDO
head Dr Arunachallam. Its all in the book Warring Nuclear Navies.
Admairal T even called it ‘Sundar’s War’ as Navy and Air Force Operations
and Intelligence were not invited to the Army Ops Room when Sundarji
took military decisions, as he took over Command and Control even from
Gen Dipender Singh. The CDS will have to bring in Jointness and many
challenges will then ease in his big task of tri-sevice training and
procurement and operations.

Manekshaw almost became CDS but Air Chief ACM Pratap Lal had
objected (in his autobiography). Manekshaw’s quip in jest was that had
he been Chief in Pakistan, that nation may have won was not taken well
by Mrs Gandhi. Jest is not a liked action by Indian politicians who correct
by saying I have been wrongly quoted!

When Admiral Nanda who was visiting Naval Dockyard in Bombay was
told by Defence Secretary on phone that Manekshaw was going to be
CDS, he remarked, ‘make any one anything as long as you do not remove a
star from me’, or words to that effect he told a gathering when giving a
forward to IDF for the book A Nation and Its Navy at War(Lancers). Rest is
history. For the last 50 years as hundreds of articles have been written
about appointment of a CDS and Admiral Sushil Kumar almost became

CDS but for IAF objection. But here appended is the OFFCIAL RELEASE for
researchers to make independent analysis.

No Rules of Business have so far been specified for the new CDS
Department and the MOD remains intact in its original form, but CDS will
be the single point advisor to the RM and also stating that the Service
Chiefs will continue to remain advisors to the RM about their own Services
seem contradictory.

The CDS it says WILL Implement Five-Year Defence Capital Acquisition Plan
(DCAP), and Two-Year roll-on Annual Acquisition Plans (AAP), as a follow
up of Integrated Capability Development Plan (ICDP) but financial sanction
may remain with Defenc Secretary with lengthy procedures..

But if Gen Bipin Rawat CDS it is the best choice in seniority and
experience and IDF WISHES CDS the very best in 2020 and his 3 year
tenure meaning age 65. Shan No Varuna. 900 WORDS REST ONLY READ IF
NEEDED & HAVE TIME !
New Delhi: Pausha 03, 1941
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Government approves creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff in
the rank of four star General.In a landmark decision with tremendous
reform in higher defence management  in the country, the Government
has approved to create the post of Chief of Defence  Staff in the rank of a
four star General with salary and perquisites equivalent to a Service Chief.
The Chief of Defence Staff will also head the Department of Military
Affairs (DMA), to be (TO BE)  created within the Ministry of Defence
and function as its Secretary.

  1. This follows the announcement made by the Prime Minister on 15th
    August 2019
    in his address to the nation, inter alia, “India should not have a
    fragmented approach. Our entire military power will have to work in
    unison and move forward…..All the three (Services) should move
    simultaneously at the same pace. There should be good coordination and
    it should be relevant to the hope and aspirations of our people. It should
    be in line with the changing war and security environment with the
    world….. after formation of this post (CDS), all the three forces will get
    effective leadership at the top level.”
  2. The following areas will be dealt by the Department of Military Affairs
    headed by CDS:
    i) The Armed Forces of the Union, namely, the Army, the Navy and the Air
    Force.
    ii) Integrated Headquarters of the Ministry of Defence comprising Army
    Headquarters, Naval Headquarters, Air Headquarters and Defence Staff
    Headquarters.
    iii) The Territorial Army.
    iv) Works relating to the Army, the Navy and the Air Force.
    v) Procurement exclusive to the Services except capital acquisitions, as per
    prevalent rules and procedures.
  3. Apart from the above, the mandate of the Department of Military
    Affairs will include the following areas:
    i) Promoting jointness in procurement, training and staffing for the
    Services through joint planning and integration of their requirements.
    ii) Facilitation of restructuring of Military Commands for optimal
    utilisation of resources by bringing about jointness in operations, including
    through establishment of joint/theatre commands.
    iii) Promoting use of indigenous equipment by the Services.
  4. The Chief of Defence Staff, apart from being the head of the
    Department of Military Affairs, will also be the Permanent Chairman of

the Chiefs of Staff Committee. He will act as the Principal Military Adviser
to Raksha Mantri on all tri-Services matters. The three Chiefs will continue
to advise RM on matters exclusively concerning their respective Services.
CDS will not exercise any military command, including over the three
Service Chiefs, so as to be able to provide impartial advice to the political
leadership.

  1. As the Permanent Chairman of Chiefs of Staff Committee, CDS will
    perform the following functions:
    i) CDS will administer tri-services organisations. Tri-service
    agencies/organisations/commands related to Cyber and Space will be
    under the command of the CDS.
    ii) CDS will be member of Defence Acquisition Council chaired by Raksha
    Mantri and Defence Planning Committee chaired by NSA.
    iii) Function as the Military Adviser to the Nuclear Command Authority.
    iv) Bring about jointness in operation, logistics, transport, training,
    support services, communications, repairs and maintenance, etc of the
    three Services, within three years of the first CDS assuming office.
    v) Ensure optimal utilisation of infrastructure and rationalise it through
    jointness among the services.
    vi) Implement Five-Year Defence Capital Acquisition Plan (DCAP), and
    Two-Year roll-on Annual Acquisition Plans (AAP), as a follow up of
    Integrated Capability Development Plan (ICDP).
    vii) Assign inter-Services prioritisation to capital acquisition proposals
    based on the anticipated budget.
    viii) Bring about reforms in the functioning of three Services aimed at
    augmenting combat capabilities of the Armed Forces by reducing wasteful
    expenditure.
  2. It is expected that this reform in the Higher Defence Management
    would enable the Armed Forces to implement coordinated defence
    doctrines and procedures and go a long way in fostering jointmanship
    among the three Services. The country would be benefitted by

coordinated action on greater jointmanship in training, logistics and
operations as well as for prioritisation of procurements.
 
New Delhi: Pausha 03, 1941
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Government approves creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff in
the rank of four star General
In a landmark decision with tremendous reform in higher defence management
in the country, the Government has approved to create the post of Chief of Defence
Staff in the rank of a four star General with salary and perquisites equivalent to a
Service Chief. The Chief of Defence Staff will also head the Department of Military
Affairs (DMA), to be (TO BE) created within the Ministry of Defence
and function as its Secretary.

  1. This follows the announcement made by the Prime Minister on 15th August 2019
    , in his address to the nation, inter alia, “India should not have a fragmented approach. Our entire
    military power will have to work in unison and move forward…..All the three (Services) should move
    simultaneously at the same pace. There should be good coordination and it should be relevant to the

hope and aspirations of our people. It should be in line with the changing war and security environment
with the world….. after formation of this post (CDS), all the three forces will get effective leadership at
the top level.”

  1. The following areas will be dealt by the Department of Military Affairs headed by CDS:
    i) The Armed Forces of the Union, namely, the Army, the Navy and the Air Force.
    ii) Integrated Headquarters of the Ministry of Defence comprising Army Headquarters, Naval
    Headquarters, Air Headquarters and Defence Staff Headquarters.
    iii) The Territorial Army.
    iv) Works relating to the Army, the Navy and the Air Force.
    v) Procurement exclusive to the Services except capital acquisitions, as per prevalent rules and
    procedures.
  2. Apart from the above, the mandate of the Department of Military Affairs will include the following
    areas:
    i) Promoting jointness in procurement, training and staffing for the Services through joint planning and
    integration of their requirements.
    ii) Facilitation of restructuring of Military Commands for optimal utilisation of resources by bringing
    about jointness in operations, including through establishment of joint/theatre commands.
    iii) Promoting use of indigenous equipment by the Services.
  3. The Chief of Defence Staff, apart from being the head of the Department of Military Affairs, will also be
    the Permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee. He will act as the Principal Military Adviser to
    Raksha Mantri on all tri-Services matters. The three Chiefs will continue to advise RM on matters
    exclusively concerning their respective Services. CDS will not exercise any military command, including
    over the three Service Chiefs, so as to be able to provide impartial advice to the political leadership.
  4. As the Permanent Chairman of Chiefs of Staff Committee, CDS will perform the following functions:
    i) CDS will administer tri-services organisations. Tri-service agencies/organisations/commands related to
    Cyber and Space will be under the command of the CDS.
    ii) CDS will be member of Defence Acquisition Council chaired by Raksha Mantri and Defence Planning
    Committee chaired by NSA.
    iii) Function as the Military Adviser to the Nuclear Command Authority.

iv) Bring about jointness in operation, logistics, transport, training, support services, communications,
repairs and maintenance, etc of the three Services, within three years of the first CDS assuming office.
v) Ensure optimal utilisation of infrastructure and rationalise it through jointness among the services.
vi) Implement Five-Year Defence Capital Acquisition Plan (DCAP), and Two-Year roll-on Annual
Acquisition Plans (AAP), as a follow up of Integrated Capability Development Plan (ICDP).
vii) Assign inter-Services prioritisation to capital acquisition proposals based on the anticipated budget.
viii) Bring about reforms in the functioning of three Services aimed at augmenting combat capabilities of
the Armed Forces by reducing wasteful expenditure.

  1. It is expected that this reform in the Higher Defence Management would enable the Armed Forces to
    implement coordinated defence doctrines and procedures and go a long way in fostering jointmanship
    among the three Services. The country would be benefitted by coordinated action on greater
    jointmanship in training, logistics and operations as well as for prioritisation of procurements.

INDIA IS NOW AN UNSIGNED ALLY OF USA & THE QUAD PLUS 2 HAS MORPHED INTO A MARITIME ALLIANCE OF USA JAPAN AUSTRALIA & RIPARIAN FRANCE WITH UK TO CONTAIN CHINA—IAF HAS TIMELY FIRED A BRAHMOS MISSILE FROM A SU-30MKI TO BECOME A MULTIPLIER MARITIME FORCE IN THE QUAD FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC

The metaphor is Geography makes History. India neglected its Khyber pass and the Himalayas, and allowed ingress from the seas by foreigners, which has scripted India’s history. Lessons need to be learnt as Geography has not changed, except a belligerent Pakistan has become India’s neighbour, and China is its best friend.

India dominates the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with its Maritime Geography. Hence Indian Navy’s ships submarines and aircraft singly and more with an Air Sea Doctrine of co-operation between Naval platforms, IAF Su-30MKi’s operating from Carnicobar with Brahmos missiles in the Andamans with IL-78 Re-Fuellers, and IL -76 Phalcon AWACS and P8is can block maritime & oil trade to China which will affect the world’s economy and could lead to unrest in China. Navy awaits the lighter Brahmos NG for its MIg-29Ks and P8Is. That is why QUAD nations covet India for its capability and for its population as a virgin maiden market and wish to contain China which would not like India to grow fast, and land disputes fester including POK.

Pakistan’s geography dominates the Western Arabian Sea and oil rich Hormuz Gulf and if Pakistan possesses a powerful Navy or allows PLA Navy full access and bases and China helps to beef up the Pakistan Navy, and brings in the military power of 5G into Pakistan the two can challenge India with Cyber. China with Huawei is getting 5G next year as a transformation and even USA Korea and EU will take time as they lack the full technology. UK signed a $1.5 billion deal with Huawei. In summary that is what is happening in the IOR for India which will wait long for 5G.

Ipso facto without co-operation of India and to some extent Pakistan nothing can move easily in South Asia. So USA covets India’s partnership to contain China and Pakistan’s to help in Afghanistan, having usurped South China Sea and warns US by denying US Navy freedom of navigation through the islands, that China has created from rocks. Unlikely China will give up its claims in SCS and with its back to the wall will raise Taiwan’s large Ibu Ata –Taiping Island with its EEZ in UN which is currently not recognized, as Taiwan is not a member of the UN ! IDF’s theory is supported by facts.

Pakistan’s advantageous land geography connects it with land locked Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics(CAR) the arena for the Great Game made famous by Peter Hopkins, when Russia wanted to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. The game is repeating this time with China already a maritime power with bases in the IOR ! This makes India’s truck with USA a fait accompli, is the message of this post.
But can USA be trusted ? It needs careful thought in agreements that India signs and must develop its technology, an industrial base and not be totally dependant on USA in the long run as India was on Soviet Union when it collapsed. PM Narendra Modi appreciates this by shedding the baggage of the past and signed COMCASA and LEMOA(text is classified) but most of his well thought out long term schemes have floundered with poor execution. Make in India is an example after Demonet and GST and as of writing the CAA on citizenship is making wrong waves. The BJP Government has lost its eye on the economy concentrating on gaining power. USA looks to India to sign space BECA foundation agreement, another force multiplier as Space and Cyber will decide who wins.
China had cleverly cut India out for their (Great) game in 1963 by secretly signing a border agreement with Pakistan and took over J&K’s Shaskgam Valley with connections to the Karakoram Pass. Article VII of the Agreement Entered into Force with the signature of the parties with a Protocol to the Agreement signed at Rawalpindi, March 26, 1965, stated, “The two Parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute (which includes POK) between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will re-open negotiations with the Government of the People’s Republic of China… so as to sign a Boundary Treaty to replace the present agreement.” The protocol and the large-scale maps appended to it have not been publicly released. This means even when India gets J&K, it will still have to discuss the Shaksgam border with China.
Since Independence, Pakistan played games with USA and signed SEATO CENTO Pacts and allowed US intelligence planes to use its airspace. Pakistan garnered military aid and funds, and President Gen Musharraf helped USA with its ‘Fight on Terror’ but made hay behind American backs with its truck with Taliban and the Haqqani net work. As China grew rich it inked a $ 56 billion CPEC.
India too had taken US help after India’s defeat at Chinese hands in 1962 with Exercise Shiksha which improved India’s air defence with radars and few know in 1962 IAF was worried about Chinese PLA(Air Force) as it had almost no air defence to direct its powerful Air Force. USA helped India set up Centre 22 in Chakrata to train Tibetans for covert actions and set up airfields in Charbatia in Orissa and Sirsawa that ARC uses for Intelligence. When India opted for Non Alignment, West dropped India as a Communist state. PM Modi has changed all that for India’s future with professing strategic autonomy, shedding the baggage of the past.
India tilted to USA after 9/11 attack in USA and RM Pranab Mukherjee signed a one page Defence Framework with USA’s Defsec Rumsfeld in 2014 in DC and PM Manmohan Singh signed the 123 Nuclear Agreement with President Bush who helped get China’s clearance for India in the Nuclear Supplier’s Group(NSG) with a quid pro quo for Pakistan’s additional nuclear Chashma plant. PM Modi signed the Strategic Partnership with USA in 2015 with President Obama when he came as the Chief Guest for the Republic Day. In 2017 US Congress National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) 2017, “recognised India’s status as a major defence partner of the United States.” Almost a non Nato ally ?
India has bought P8is, C130s, Globemasters, Apache and Chinook helicopters and soon 155mm guns already worth $ 16 billion and with FMC sales of 24 MH-60 Seahawk Sikorsky helicopters and 16 sets of BAE 127mm Guns for the Indian Navy possibly inked. Drones and 6 more P8i planes are on the anvil. India is now in the US grip for military support with its ally Israel, as it was with the Soviet Union. Russia accepts the fait accompli as long as India imports defence wares and is tied with nuclear technology as India’s third and fourth nuclear submarines are in building with Russian help.
Harsh Vardhan Shringla India’s Ambassador to USA recently stated, “ South Asia is one of the most sought after regions by the world’s sole superpower, the US ……….If one closely follows the current US policy towards South Asia, that too, specifically under President Trump, one would find Afghanistan and India continue to decide the fate of not only the entire region but also the future of Pakistan-US relationship…… The US seems to have decided to engage Pakistan via Afghanistan but the road ahead is slippery…….. and our militaries exercise regularly with each other,……India-US bilateral trade had been growing at 10 per cent year-on-year basis to reach USD 142 billion in 2018 and had also become more balanced”.
For India, Indo-Pacific is important which Includes the Indian Ocean up to West Asia as EAM Jaishankar affirmed in the Indian Ocean Dialogue and the debate is whether Indian Navy will get support or is US Navy’s closeness after so many Malabars and inter-operability enough. The Doklam incursion by China in 2017 shook PM Modi to act for Army and hurriedly buy Rafales for the IAF. India needs a stronger Navy and a clear Maritime Strategy and an Air-Sea Doctrine based on the above headlines especially as France a Riparian IOR nation with largest EEZ has offered its bases and UK too has supported the QUAD.
US steers India, and India determines Pakistan’s response as both nations are nuclear and may see a skirmish as COAS Gen Bipin Rawat tipped to become the CDS warned that India was ready to attack if Pakistan F-16s had hit 25 Div’s ammunition depot on 27th Feb post Balakot. It will need consultation with USA.
Recently Secretary Michael Pompeo & Defsec Mark Esper, met EAM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and India’s Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh in DC for the two plus two meet and signed the Industrial Security Agreement to share technology with confidentiality. India had signed such long ago with Soviet Union. That precluded private Indian defence sector from manufacture of Russian equipment. This time private firms may benefit as US has no Public Sector Defence Companies. In 2 plus 2 both sides agreed to establish a new exchange program for legislators and launched new initiatives to help secure internships for innovators in each of our two countries, and support India’s Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. Ache Din Agaye on Foreign Policy but economy and Navy need thought. Shan No Varuna.

THE UNTOLD POT BALAKOT IAF MIG & PAF F-16 DOWNINGS ON 27 TH FEB IN PAKISTAN’S SURPRISE “SWIFT RETORT”—THE IAF USED NCTR TO DOWN AN F-16 & PAF F- 16s WITH DENEL WEAPONS MISSED 25 DIV TARGETS !

This IDF analysis is for interested readers like an Alfred Hitchcock thriller with a verbatim quote from Trident Trishul Blogspot to appreciate the air situation, and is based on Former Air Chief BS Dhanoa’s revelation at Litfest in Chandigarh of use of NCTR to meet Pakistan’s 24 planes in “SWIFT RETORT”.
Pakistan believes in SURPRISE as its Principle of War, it used in 1948, 1965 and in 1971 on 3rd Dec 1971 evening. PM Mrs Gandhi had engineered the Intelligence to make Pakistan start the war. FM Manekshaw had assured her India was ready for 4th.

In 1999 again, India was surprised in Kargil and Gen VP Malik revealed nuggets at the same Chandigarh Litfest. All this and covert Mukti Bahini operations in 1971 is in Warring Nuclear Navies, but Gen Jacob destroyed the data of 60,000 tons of shipping Navy and Mukhti Bahini divers destroyed before the 1971 war to avoid paying Insurance and P&I compensations ! India denied its hand in any Mukhti action and did not even take back Clearance Diver Lt Das’s body when offered by Pakistan. PM Hassina in Delhi decorated his parents at Manekshaw centre in presence of PM Modi.

BJP brilliantly used surprise for Surgical Strike and Balakot and so many feel that Pakistan’s nuclear threat is a bluff but India should be ready in case Pakistan retorts, is the massage of this message.
IDF looks forward to a CDS who should read how FM Manekshaw acted as a CDS in 1971 to steer the three services to victory ! CDS must encourage Government must play war games on what may happen if it wants to be ready for what may happen. China wishes to raise Kashmir Issue again in UN and is a factor in the Indo Pacific brewing tension with interests worth billions in Pakistan and worried about POK’s future.

Prasun Sengupta of Trishul published part of his post on Balakot in June 2019 issue(FORCE), and now adds “Without understanding how NCTR works, there will continue to be needless & unwarranted speculation on the roles & tactics of the IAF’s airborne Mirage-2000Ns & Su-30MKIs on the morning of February 27, 2019”.
IDF and Wikipedia describes all-passive non-cooperative target recognition (NCTR) which PAF’s frontline MRCAs did not possess as one that enables a fighter to SILENTLY (radar off) approach always operating with a wingman. Even when India sent relief to Tamils in Op Poolmalia in 1987 to Sri Lanka in IL-76s the IAF’s Mirages accompanied them.

The Air Situational Awareness (Navy calls it Maritime Domain Awareness MDA) to the lead fighter is fed from the AWACS or LINK the winger passes from his radar about the range and bearing of the opposing aircraft whose on-board Multi Mode Radar is operating in the ‘track-while-scan mode” readying to fire a BVRAAM at the winger further away. (SOP in Navy).
QUOTE FROM TRIDENT TRISHUL BLOGSPOT
NCTR mode enables an aircraft passively lock-on to its opponent and fire BVRAAMs like the R-77 or even IIR-guided SRAAMs like the R-73E while at the same time employing its Israel supplied EL/L-8222 ASPJ activated for completely neutralising hostile BVRAAMs like the AIM-120 AMRAAM. The hostile MRCA, on the other hand, remains unaware of the approaching BVRAAM or SRAAM (until it is too late to take evasive action.)
The engagements on 27th saw the successful usage of both beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM) and short-range air-to-air missiles (SRAAM). Both opposing air forces engaged one another not only with their respective multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) fleets, but also with combat-support platforms like airborne early warning & control (AEW & CS) aircraft.
The IAF had an appreciable head-start over the PAF when in the 1980s it had procured Vympel R-23R and Matra Super 530D (Navy too) missiles along with its MiG-23MF and Mirage-2000H/TH combat aircraft…PAF could procure its first BVRAAMs—the Raytheon-built AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs—only in the previous decade.
The IAF’s successful employment (By Wing Cdr Abhinandan) of the Vympel R-73E SRAAM with the help of the Sura-1 helmet-mounted display system (HMDS) once again proved that even third-generation upgraded legacy-MRCAs—can be lethal tools in the hands of experienced Indian air warriors.
(As an IAF trained controller IDF vouches that with the tools it has and proper Command and Control by Higher Leadership Indian Armed Forces are a force to reckon with but needs Air Sea and Air Land Doctrines of mutual support.)
Yet on 27th February Abhinandan’s MiG-21 Bison (armed with two Vympel R-77/RVV-AE BVRAAMs and two R-73E SRAAMs) of the IAF’s 1 Wing’s No.51 ‘Sword Arms’ Sqn operating out of Avantipora air base in J & K was lost to enemy fire. So what went wrong?
(In the ‘Furball’ meaning surprised by an animal)……….Pakistan surprised India as Pak Air and Army Chief got clearance from PM Imran Khan who consulted USA and China and decided to retort without crossing the LOC.)
At around 9:30am on 27 February, IAF flight controllers noticed a large package of 24 PAF combat aircraft taking off in 15 minutes from three air bases. These included at least 12 F-16C/Ds. They approached the Line of Control (LoC), into two formations, with airborne battle management cues being provided by a Saab 2000 AEW & CS platform. The formations included four Mirage-VPAs, four Mirage-IIIEAs and four JF-17s headed for the Sundarbani-Rajouri-Naushera sub-sectors; and eight F-16s headed for the Rajouri-Mendhar sub-sector and Nangi Tekri in Karmara. Pitted against them were two of the IAF’s upgraded Mirage-2000INs and four MiG-21 Bisons flying north of the Pir Panjal Range, and four Su-30MKIs to the south of the Range. The main PAF strike force comprised four F-16C/Ds armed with DENEL Dynamics-supplied Raptor-IID TV-guided gliding munitions, while the remaining four F-16C/Ds and four JF-17s were tasked with the protection of the strike package while remaining in a rear area over the Mangla Dam near the PoK-Pakistan Punjab border. (Pakistan feared war but wanted to avoid it is IDF analysis).
PAF selected the Indian Army posts at Bhimber Gali (elevation of 5,479 feet), Krishna Ghati Top (Nangi Tekri) at a height of 4,665 feet, Potha at an elevation of 4,073 feet, and an ammunition storage area in Narian (belonging to the 25 Infantry Division of the Indian Army) at an elevation of 2,000 feet. These targets, falling in India’s Rajouri sector, were deliberately selected for the sake of establishing Pakistan’s ‘moral ascendancy’ along this portion of the LoC—given the fact that it is from these areas that the Indian Army dominates its opposing adversary’s Battal sector, which is located at lower altitudes.
However, when the intruding PAF F-16s gained altitude for crossing into the areas southeast of the Pir Panjal Range towards their designated land targets in Jammu at altitudes varying from 5,000 feet to 10,000 feet in order to launch the Raptor-IIDs, they were detected by the IAF’s A-50I PHALCON by 10.25am, which in turn vectored the airborne MiG-21 Bisons towards their respective intercept courses.
Since these MiG-21 Bisons climbed in the shadow of the Pir Panjal Range, the PAF’s Saab 2000 AEW & CS platform failed to detect them. This proved to be a “blessing for the IAF”, since the PAF’s attacking F-16C/Ds were taken aback and were forced to launch their Raptor-IIDs in great hurry (and missed Army targets).
The Su-30MKIs carrying EL/L-8222 airborne self-protection jammer (ASPJ) pods were kept on standby further down south to engage the four PAF F-16s that were still orbiting 162km further to the west. It subsequently became evident that what the PAF wanted was to drive home a ‘point’ about the PAF demonstrating its will, means and capability to stage a ‘retaliatory sneak attack’ inside Indian territory.
By most accounts, cruising at 15,000 feet altitude, the MiG-21 Bis of Wing Commander Abhinandan engaged a PAF F-16D of 19 ‘Sherdils’ Sqn that had approached the Indian Army’s ammunition depot at Narian in Southern Jammu and was exiting that location at an altitude of 9,000 feet. While the MiG-21 Bison made a shallow dive to get within R-73E firing range of the F-16, the Paki pilot was alerted by his wingman about the impending attack and so he took an evasive measure by going into a steep climb to about 26,000 feet. By this time Wg Cdr Abhinandan had skillfully manoeuvred the powerful MiG-21 Bison’s engine behind the fleeing F-16 and positioned himself at a 60-degree angle of elevation below the F-16. (He and was in no mood to abort even if ordered). He fired an R-73E, which effortlessly struck the nose-section of the F-16D.
However, even as the R-73E was closing on to its target, the wingman of the F-16 (Wing Commander Nauman Ali Khan) moved in from behind and fired an AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM from a distance of less than 12km, hitting the centre-fuselage of the MiG-21 Bison. A second AIM-120C-5 that was probably fired against Wg Cdr Abhinandan’s wingman ( where was he —had he gotten separated from him) failed to hit its target and consequently it slammed into Mamankote Mallas village, Reasi, and caused an explosion that spread splinters and missile parts within a radius of 100 metres.
The entire aerial engagement lasted for some 90 seconds and ended at around 10:45am. The PAF F-16D was shot down over the Jhangar area of Khuiratta inside Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), opposite the Lam Valley. Abhinandan went down near Horra’n Kotla village, located 7km west of the LoC in PoK’s Bhimber district.
(IDF salutes the Indian Air Force with a BZ as luck helped the Paki wing man IAF needs to read Trishul Blogspot IDF did and correct the analysis done by joining the dots and NCTR.) Shan No Varuna.)