NASIM ZEHRA’S BOOK WITH MILITARY MAPS & OPERATIONS A LA KARGIL 1999 ADMITS IT WAS A “DISASTER FOR PAKISTAN”– IDF ASKS WILL MOD/MODI’S GOI RELEASE 1962 BLUNDERS & HENDERSON BROOKS REPORT–THE 1965 WAR WHY NAVY WAS LEFT OUT & KARGIL-TO LEARN LESSONS AS PAKISTAN HAS DONE

IDF repeats history repeats itself in current conditions, and Winston Churchill said, “History is invariably told by the persons who write it”. Churchill a former Military officer served in India and still owes the Bangalore Club a bill of Rs 13 ( worth Rs 5000 today) shown in the club’s foyer, went on to write the history of the World War 2 in six volumes to win the Nobel Prize. He had access to all records and also wanted to glorify Britain and to learn lessons.

On his death, Churchill was nationally honoured equal to Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson, 1st Duke of Bronté, born on 29th September 1758 who died on 21th October 1805. Continue reading

HOW VULNERABLE IS INDIA TO CYBER WARFARE ATTACKS IS THE CHALLENGE FACING NATIONAL SECURITY PLANNERS.

Ranjit B Rai

The Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) held a two day long conference on Digital Age & Cyber Space from 28th August 2018 in New Delhi in partnership with  the Institute of Policy, Advocacy and Governance(IPAG) headquartered in Dhaka in Bangla Desh.  The aim of the conference was to, “Maximise Benefits, Minimise Risks and Unleash Creativity”, of the cyber domain and was addressed by nine Indian cyber experts and many more from think tanks in USA, Belgium UK, Singapore and France.

The speakers engaged with a lively audience, which included companies that work on cyber security for institutions, and Government, and professional virus solution providers and hackers in industry who also work for National Security. Cyber is a new speciality and jobs are well paid as work in Cyber challenges the practitioners who are expected to re-interpret the existing models of enterprise security, and to think out of the box.

At the outset it is known that India unlike China, lacks a national Internet network with large server capacity to make firewalls, restrict Google and Gmail like services, and yet provide its citizen’s internet, like China does through its Weinbao like services. China has set up internal gateways for security with fusion centres for intelligence and has a large budget for cyber operations and an army of young hackers. Cyber operations are getting connected with artificial intelligence (AI) for automatic surveillance of threats. Continue reading

US UNDER SECRETARY ALICE WELLS RECKONS 2 PLUS 2 IS ABOUT TIME US INDIA SECURITY RELATIONS ARE OPERATIONALISED — JAPAN’S ONODERA ON MARITIME SECURITY & CHINA’S GEN FENGE TO KEEP PEACE ON BORDERS AS PER WUHAN CAME —DOES IT INCLUDE RESPITE FOR CPEC THRU POK & BHUTAN’S DOKLAM ?

Ranjit B Rai

Security decisions are all about ‘pushes and pulls’. In the preamble IDF can state India’s security history is seeing a new epoch, which began after the Cold War ended.  India’s ship of state altered course, and has now turned “hard a Starboard” to USA. The driving force is dictated by ‘strategic convergences’ between US and India (just like marriages), just like the winds that hurled India into the Soviet Camp in the 1960s. A military Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Security followed, despite Non Alignment.  Convergences are now driving   India in to USA’s lap, India’s best and only option in the circumstances, that IDF analyses.

India today is in  USA’s  security camp with eighteen Exercise Simbexes and has an Indian Naval officer in Singapore’s  International Fusion Centre (IFC) at Changi  along with US, Japan and France’s International Liaison Officer (ILO) and Madagascar’s IFC which    monitors all shipping  in the Indo-Pacific. It provides strategic import, and Intelligence. 

Indian Navy with Exercise Malabars  gets Intelligence and the NSAs of USA and India co-operate for Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) to jointly and confidently track intruding PLA (Navy) ships and submarines as CNS Adm Sunil Lanba has stated. Nothing is in writing except a one page general Defence Framework and one out of three foundational agreements called LEMOA, for logistics to guide the militaries. The other two CISMOA and BECA will consummate the India US security relationship as the first step. Only Indian Navy seems to be in step with US Navy with its Maritime Centre in Gurgaon. Continue reading

POET LAWYER PM VAJPAYEE LED INDIA BY RIGHT— HE LOVED SEASONS & TASTES— A PERSUASIVE & AMBIGUOUS ORATOR WHO PLACED INDIA ON THE NUCLEAR PODIUM – SHED NON-ALIGNMENT & INDIA’S LICENSE RAJ TO BEFRIEND USA & ATTEMPTED FRIENDSHIP WITH A WAYWARD PAKISTANI GENERAL——RIP SIR!

Ranjit B Rai

Readers may   question   IDF’s temerity to write about one of India’s great Prime Minister’s – late Atal Behari Vajpayee. The  Latin ‘temere’, means   boldness. In India; Brahminical restraints are  imposed, so IDF seeks indulgence, as Vajpayee was a poet and enjoyed life,  and servicemen must appreciate him  as a rounded personality,  that services respect as leaders.  

Few uniformed have written about   Vajpayee as he never  favoured any one,  or credited one person or a creed. He believed in collective efforts and respected the Military. Let Gen VP Malik and Chiefs of his time speak.

Vajpayee’s role Vis a Vis Advani and his opponent   Murli Manohar Joshi in politics and such, is written about, and shows Vajpayee carried all his enemies with him with his poetry or oratory.

 RSS No 2 Sudershan suddenly arrived to meet PM Vajpayee when BJP was first elected  to form the Government and said RSS does not want Jaswant Singh, a military man to be a Minister. Jaswant had lost his election just as AVBP Jaitley in 2014.  It shows RSS views and hold over BJP.

 PM Vajpayee appointed 11th course NDA Col Jaswant Singh as Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, then to the Rajya Sabha and made him Defence Minister.  Vajpayee’s principle was not to bend, but just bow for a time. When Vajapayee was asked if he would leave BJP he said, “Jaieen to Jaieen Khya”. He is recommended to Services brass.  Bow not bend plan a  strategy,  co-operate with Government to get what it is national interests. Continue reading

ON 71ST INDEPENDENCE DAY IDF RECALLS THE CONTRIBUTION BY FORGETTEN ROYAL INDIAN NAVY BRITS-INDIANS-ANGLOS & PARSEES FOR INDIA’S WHITE GUARD PAST & PRESENT —THEY STRUCTURED & TRAINED WHAT IS THE FINE INDIAN NAVY TODAY —-PART ONE

Ranjit B Rai inputs Jai Misra

Former PM Vajpayee a leader who respected the military, attend Navy Days is no more and IDF will do a post.

This IDF post holds an apology for poor editing at times from IDF’s I Pad, but it’s what comes out of one’s bonnet. It is left to Sub Editors, which IDF does not have.

After 71 years of neglect of infrastructure the monsoon is playing havoc washing away roads especially in Kerala where Navy is executing heroic recues. When one travels, one sees how India is falling behind ASEAN and China, as inequality also has risen but 200 mill Indians are propelling India big, as the world’s biggest consumer market.

In such conditions poorer Indians look to PM Modi to become India’s Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR–1940) who gave USA Social Security and Health care and made USA rich and strong. It can happen with leadership, with Demonet, GST, Adhaar and 106 schemes in PMO and now Modi care!

Regrettably most like Modi are born after 1947 so military history especially about the British part of the Navy is not recalled or researched as 15,000 Navy mutinied in 1946, and records destroyed and research is not Indians’ forte but PM Vajpayee lived pre and post Partition India, enjoyed a tot, made India go nuclear and dearly loved a woman too as Kingshuk Nag his biographer writes ! He lived history……… RIP!

IDF listened to PM’s 82 minute (Election??) spiel from the Red Fort. Children from 5.30 am, endured the stifling heat, and even PM, wiped his face often with gulps, but he did unfold India’s progress many times, conveying he needs another term to complete his dream. In golf we say, the Mulligan (second) shot, is always better, so Modi is India’s only Mulligan

May be under another BJP the War Memorial at India Gate, National Defence University (NDU) in Gurgaon, NFU and OROP and the Theatre Commands debate that IAF, Radm Monty Khanna and now ACM Krishnaswamy have alluded to and a CDS will move. The defence budget is inaequate — Rafale and S-400 will eat in, and no off sets have succeeded. No new Naval ship can do without a helicopter it is said, so Navy, like India Jugads! This needs correction. Continue reading

NUCLEAR PAKISTAN TRUCKED WITH CHINA EASILY CHALLENGES A MORE POWERFUL INDIA TRUCKED WITHUSA’S POTUS AFTER YEARS WITH RUSSIA ….DAMMED IF INDIA DOES& DAMMED IF IT DOES NOT ??IT ISCATCH 22 FOR INDIA’S LEADERSHIP

This post is prompted byever smiling plump,Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who is due in India early September. Pompeoalways takes a bagful  of Trump’s surprises with him. WithGenMattisthey will confer with  our two Lady Ministers Sushma with a great past, and Nirmala brought in to defend India both guided by PMO on India’s US policy and military trade. IDF feels   NSA Doval PM’s alter ego on Security would like to be present. No ?

At the recent Indo-Pacific Business Forum, Pompeo  clarified , “ the Trump administration’s strategy is  for advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific. Heemphasized  that for  U.S.A, business engagement is at the center of it – as  a staple of USA’s  mission to promote peace, stability, and prosperity.” Note the words business and staple !

The message was also for China which has grown 25 times in three decades with trade.  India grew three times and USA grew 2.5 times and Chinaclaims it has  never stopped  trade. The  underlying fact is,  China has usurped the South  China Sea islands and challenges USA as a peer competitor in trade and stops US warships entering  the 12 nm territorial seas it claims,  for  the rocks now amazingly fortified into  islands by Chinese engineers.   So Trump has unleashed a trade war,  as war is not an option but intimidation is, in tactical Nuclear times.

Indians will have to understand USA lives by Alexis de Tocqueville. He  was an Intelligence man and the French author who wrote, Democracy in America (1835), perhaps the best, and certainly the most widely-quoted book ever written about the United State, like Discovery of India by Pandit Nehru. IDF used both  to write Indians Why We Are What  We Are and got ‘Gallis’ (critical reviews)like the book The Ugly American. , Khushwant Singh wrote, Indians like to criticize but cannot stomach criticism …..ala Rahul and a  Modi and a Shah are at it, tooth and nail !

But here lies the difference. Tocqueville explains the Business of Americans is to make money (business). Pandit Nehru looked to culture, history and fairness which USA does not, and even told the first Principal of NDA, Prof Vyas, Economics Is Not To Be Taught To The  MilitaryAnd Is Supposedto have said, Commerce Is a Dirty Word…Vive la Differnce. Continue reading

IN ABSENCE OF A CDS NSA HEADS DPC WITH CHIEFS AS BJP’S DE-FACTO CDS—IT IS A MORAL ACT BY PM LIKE LORD KRISHNA’S FOR THE WAIVERING PANDAVAS— GITA SAYS MORALITY RESTS WITH POWER & IS IN THE HANDS OF PM-THE DE FACTO C-in-C OF INDIA

This an IDF  analysis  of the dire need for a one point Military Commander that  India lacks for higher leadership that India  and has sorely  missed.

We have  forgotten,   India  had a De Facto  CDS Parsi  by luck in the 1971 war for Victory ! There is no CDS or C-in-C and PM runs the Government through Constitutional Cabinet Control, perforce  as a C-in-C too.

In the 1965 war the PM Shastri asked Navy not to join. In the 1971 war (Mrs Gandhi accepted a De Facto CDS)  and Kargil half war (PM Vajpayee to Army Chief JO KARNA HAI KARO…..not in writing) showed that all security  decisions were  by PM  with no one point of advice as Chiefs seldom easily agree on major issues, as many Defence Secretaries have said, and pre -Kargil lack of military actions depicted.

No  Chief has been able to get the other two to agree on OROP to goad an end to the imbroglio.   In 1971 Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw took over as de-facto CDS  to ACM Pratap Lal’s ire. It’s in Lal’s book and IAF did not want CDS, Radm Monty Khanna says IAF does not like Theatre Commands !

When Adm Sushil Kumar was being made CDS by RM George Fernandes a COSC paper was readied, guard and band and a residence were  being planned, but the IAF Chief was reluctant to sign the COSC paper that Defence Secretary awaited !  It has remained since,  despite Committees by Arun Singh, K Subrahmanyam and Naresh Chandra. Continue reading

IDF ANALYSIS HOW NAVY TRANSITED FROM BUYER TO A BUILDER’S NAVY & WHY ARMY & AIR FORCE COULD NOT —POINTERS FOR THEM TO GAIN FROM NAVY’S WESEE- DGND -PSU SHIPYARDS- L&T-DOCKYARDS-DOI & VISIT TO MDA CENTRE/ BELUGA IN GURGAON

India’s Navy began as the Honourable East India Company’s Marine on 5th Sept, 1612, then became Royal Indian Marine and many names including Indian Navy. It became the Royal Indian Navy (RIN) on 2nd October 1934 at Bombay.

 Ratnagiri’s Muslamans took part in First World war as RIN Ratings, called Khalasees. In WW 2  Indian  officers and ratings took valiant part  from  1939  as a miniscule force of 8 warships,  1,500 sailors and 150 officers.  RIN was expanded.  Posters, “Join the Navy & See the World”, saw officers and sailors join. Some were sent to UK, others were quick–trained by Goras in Cocin!   

 By 1945, RIN’s strength had multiplied fifteen times to 2,438 officers, 214 Petty Officers and 21,193 ratings with 14 bases and a Training/Air base on Cochin’s Willingdon Island for the Fleet Air Arm, from where the US Air Force also operated.  Lt Cdr YN Singh a pilot flew from RN carriers and many others fought on RN ships in the Atlantic like our Army abroad and IAF in Battle of Britain. Because of the 1946 Naval Mutiny, RN did not credit RIN for the war.

Lord Admiral Louis Mountbatten (Dikkie) saluted RIN’s  war actions in Burma and Middle East, and Flag Lt RKS Ghandhi and wife Bubbles would relate these. They became lifelong friends.

 Navy’s ships are ‘operated and maintained’ by the Ship’s Company, unlike Army where EME maintains and in IAF, only pilots fight. The maintainers get good night’s sleep.  On warships all   sail and sink together, so skills to keep the machinery and drills in top shape are every body’s business. Topasses repair toilet flushes better than plumbers and load guns and dine together.  Till  recently IDF did not know they were Dalits.   Continue reading

INDIA TO SIGN QUID PRO QUO COMCASA FOR WAIVER FROM CAASTA TO BUY S-400 MISSILES & REDUCE RELIANCE ON RUSSIA WHEN 2 PLUS 2 MEET IN DELHI –USA’S GOAL TO WEAN INDIA AWAY FROM RUSSIA ENTERS THE LAST LAP. USA’s STRATEGY ?

USA has become an oil exporting nation so IDF analyses the period ahead portends very, very trying  days for China, Iran and Russia in economic terms due a trade war let loose by President Trump which will affect India. Chinese and Iranian companies are in big crisis. Trump’s aim.

IDF posted the  2 plus 2  meet was postponed by Secretary of State Pompeo. It was deliberate as the  agenda was not complete to USA’s  expectations. The agenda is going through,  “Last Minute Jugad”.  Dr APJ Abdul Kalam always told Project Directors. “Push push….no waste time, less files more work.” A nuclear submarine was born, like his missiles. Continue reading

IS SOUTH CHINA SEA GOING GOING GONE INTO CHINA’S LAP? TIME IS RUNNING OUT TO MAKE CHINA ADHERE TO UNCLOS (1982) WHICH USA HAS ITSELF NOT SIGNED! LESSONS IN THESE INTERESTING TIMES AS INDIA PAKISTAN CHINA & BHUTAN TOO HAVE NO DEFINED BOUNDARIES!

Ranjit B Rai

This IDF post is   a maritime analysis  inquiring of   the state of current sovereignty of the Parcels near Vietnam, and Spratly Islands near Philippines,  called the South China Sea (SCS). Three other nations have lesser claims.   

 With superior reclamation technology China has rocks turned in to fortified  Islands in the SCS  and opened them to tourism, fishing and exploration from Hainan and Haikou.  SCS has gas and oil called the Blue Economy. China has dipped in to its deep pockets, and guards the SCS with its rising PLA (Navy) and taken over the Coast Guard.  

New laws for base sea boundary lines extending to islands were introduced in UNCLOS and China set up three  full Maritime Universities at Dalian, Shanghai and Jiangsu  for Maritime Law and to study SCS.  Many claim Bangla Desh and  Myanmar consulted Chinese experts in their claims which concerned India and it helped. Even Pakistan did,  to further its  claims for extended EEZ in UN’s Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. Pakistan was the 13th nation to stake its EEZ claim as having deeper waters than India, and has got a favorable resolution which will have  significant strategic consequences.   India took time to submit its claims to be heard in sequence for final dispensation.  

On SCS in the  ITLOS arbitration, China issued a Non Paper purposely in poor English to confuse, in its defence. Philippines claimed the Spratlys citing Jurisdiction and won in 2016. Taiwan which has the original Chinese 8 Dash Line Chart it is rumored, owns the largest island called Taiping (Ibu Itu) in the SCS was not allowed to put forth  its claim, or even  attend proceedings not being a member of UN. Its Press Statement in 2016 needs study.

  Continue reading